Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Water-Fueled Cars


Japanese company Genepax presents its eco-friendly car that runs on nothing but water. The car has an energy generator that extracts hydrogen from water that is poured into the car’s tank. The generator then releases electrons that produce electric power to run the car.  The electric powered car can run on any type of water (you can even use tea and soda…etc).  The car can run for an hour at about 50 miles per hour  on just a liter of water; about 2 cans of soda worth.  Genepax, the company that invented the technology, aims to collaborate with Japanese manufacturers to mass produce it.

Unlike other electric cars, the Genepax car does not require that batteries be recharged and has no emission. The water electrical generator is located in the back of the car and when water is poured it is then broken down in order to create electricity to power the car. Imagine what such a generator could do to the oil industry, the nuclear plants and the electrical grid.


That story broke in 2008.  Today Japan is producing hydrogen fueled cars – the Honda FCX Clarity.  Combine the technology of Genepax with the technology of the Honda FCX Clarity and you have a full production vehicle that uses no gasoline.  No gasoline combustion means zero emissions.

In 2010, it is reported that there are a total of 50 FCX Clarity available for lease in the U.S with a target to have 200 available world-wide.



The Honda FCX Clarity fuel cell-electric vehicle has been chosen to be the pace car for the opening race of the 2011 IZOD IndyCar Series, from 25-27 March 2011.  This is the first-time a hydrogen-powered vehicle will pace an IZOD IndyCar Series race in the United States.

Propelled by an electric motor that runs on electricity generated in a fuel cell, the FCX Clarity’s only emission is water and its fuel efficiency is three times that of a similar-sized petrol-powered automobile. The FCX Clarity’s performance and acceleration are comparable to a 2.4-litre, 4-cylinder engine with an EPA certified range of 240 miles. The compact and powerful Honda V Flow Fuel Cell Stack allows for unprecedented spaciousness and a futuristically stylish, low-slung design and spacious interior.

Since the vehicle’s unveiling there were nearly 80,000 people around the world who expressed interest in owning a FCX Calrity.  80,000 people who won’t be buying any more gasoline once they take possession.

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Fourteen

by David Hajdu

Break out the guitar-shaped cake pans.

Today is Bob Dylan’s 70th birthday, an occasion that essayists, bloggers and magazine writers have been celebrating for weeks. Mr. Dylan surely deserves the attention, but he’s only one in a surprisingly large group of major pop-music artists born around the same time.

John Lennon would have turned 70 last October; Joan Baez had her 70th birthday in January; Paul Simon and George Clinton will reach 70 before the end of this year. Next year, the club of legendary pop septuagenarians will grow to include Paul McCartney, Aretha Franklin, Carole King, Brian Wilson and Lou Reed. Jimi Hendrix and Jerry Garcia would have also been 70 in 2012.

Perhaps this wave of 70th birthdays is mere coincidence. There are, after all, lots of notable people of all ages. But I suspect that the explanation for this striking cluster of musical talent lies in a critical fact of biography: all those artists turned 14 around 1955 and 1956, when rock ’n’ roll was first erupting. Those 14th birthdays were the truly historic ones.

Fourteen is a formative age, especially for people growing up in social contexts framed by pop culture. You’re in the ninth grade, confronting the tyrannies of sex and adulthood, struggling to figure out what kind of adult you’d like to be, and you turn to the cultural products most important in your day as sources of cool — the capital of young life.

“Fourteen is a sort of magic age for the development of musical tastes,” says Daniel J. Levitin, a professor of psychology and the director of the Laboratory for Music Perception, Cognition and Expertise at McGill University. “Pubertal growth hormones make everything we’re experiencing, including music, seem very important. We’re just reaching a point in our cognitive development when we’re developing our own tastes. And musical tastes become a badge of identity.”

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Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Are Cemeteries Just For the Dead?

by  Connie Neumann

Dieter Pausch has formed a close connection with the departed over the past 25 years as caretaker of Munich's eastern graveyard. But the jovial Bavarian's job also includes taking care of the living.

The cemetery keeper ensures that plots and pathways are clean so the bereaved can lay their loved ones to rest with dignity. Moments like the solemn procession from the funeral parlor to the open grave are planned in exact detail. Pausch knows that these few minutes, though they have become routine for his colleagues and undertakers, are filled with grief for relatives. Before the bell rings and the ceremony begins, he has checked the route through the headstones, removing any potential obstacles, even the gardener's wheelbarrows.

"It is about our values, how we get along with one another," Pausch says.

But not all the cemetery's visitors see it that way. Supervisors are sometimes forced to interrupt funeral processions because a growing number of people there are more concerned with a long and healthy life than a final resting place. A growing number of Munich residents looking to escape crowded parks in favor of more tranquil landscapes have adopted the cemetery as part of their fitness route. Neon-clad runners, their ears stuffed with iPod earphones, sometimes appear, puffing and panting, in front of a solemn funeral procession. Such encounters usually happen in the morning during the first funeral of the day, or after offices have closed for the evening. The offenders are usually women, because "they are more figure conscious," Pausch says.

They jog through the rows of gravesites, along gravelled pathways, beneath the shade of the old trees. Thanks to its thick brick walls the graveyard is free of traffic noise and exhaust fumes. Exercise fans stretch their muscles on grave stones and marble angels. "Thoughtless," Pausch calls them, saying he is often tempted to reprimand them for the interruption. But he bites his tongue. "The service has already been spoiled enough already," he says.

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[ed.  This practice isn't confined to Europe;  my mother used to walk through the local cemetery every day for exercise, along with other walkers and joggers.  I doubt the deceased minded being a part of life.  Beyond the peace of place, cemeteries also stimulate reflection on how other lives were lived.  That said, activities not directly related to honoring he dead should always be respectful.]






images:  markk

Sushi Files: Hikari Mono: Kohada, Iwashi and Aji

If you are a Sushi newbie and have been aversed to fishy fish, then Hikarimono would probably be the last type of sushi you should try. Hikarimono literally means "Shiny things" in Japanese and refers to small pelagic fish which live in the water column near the surface of the ocean.  They often swim in schools and are forage feeders and their flesh is full of heart protecting Omega 3 fish  oils. This oil is what gives its flesh its soft and strong fishy flavour. In contrast, milder tasting, bottom feeding fish such as flounder and cod have very little fat the flesh as most of the oil is concentrated in the liver which is why we have Cod Liver Oil.  These small fish are shiny and blue in order to look like the shimmering water on the surface of the ocean so that they are camouflaged from predators like Tuna and Mackeral. They usually reproduce quickly and have short lifespans, so fish such as sardines are herrings are a great choice for those concerned about sustainability and the risk of mercury poisoning as they don't live long enough to accumulate mercury to a toxic level.

In general, the Hikarimono tend to have stronger fish flavour compared to the Shiromi-dane or white flesh fish and it is eaten precisely because of that.  Those people who are fond of fishy fish would usually love it but those like myself who are a little more averse to fishy fish might take a while to appreciate the taste.  While you may eat Shiromi-dane for its texture and subtle sweetness, many fish fanciers would usually want some Hikarimono towards the end of your sushi meal in order to enjoy the stronger flavour.  The exception being the Kohada which is sometimes eating at the beginning of the meal in order to see how good the chef's skills are.

There are several Hikari Mono that are commonly found in Singapore and they range in prices from the cheapest which are Iwashi (Sardine) and Aji (Horse Mackeral) to the more expensive Kohada (Gizzard Shad), Sayori and Saba (Chub Mackeral).

Kohada
This is one of those fish that the Japanese call a Shusse-uo which means that the fish is known by a different name at different stages of growth.  The baby kohada is called a shinko (<5cm) and they are more expensive than the Kohada and come into season in July.  When they reach 10 cm they are called Kohada and this is the usual size they serve for sushi.  Then it becomes a nakatsumi before it becomes known by its proper name, Konashiro which may be around 25cm long. On a side note, you will find that many of the fish are called by the names when they are best for sushi rather than their proper names as in the case of Kohada and Hamachi.  Kohada are plentiful around the waters of Japan and at the time when the Sushi culture first became popular in the Edo period, they were plentiful and cheap and at one stage even cheaper than rice.  So they are sold at every street corner and Kohada is to sushi what Kleenex is to tissue paper.

Even though the fish is called a gizzard shad, it really doesn't have an accurate English name.  The American gizzard shad, Dorosoma cepedianum, is a fish belonging to a  different family altogether but you can understand why they call this a Gizzard Shad as both of these fish have that distinctive long ray that sticks out of the dorsal fin like an antennae. 


Kohada, Gizzard Shad: Konosirus punctatus
Size:  Up to 30cm.  Kohada is best when they are 15cm

Seasonality: Shinko appear in July and grows into Kohada through winter

Square

by E. B. Boyd

The new payment system that Square launched today is going to have a profound effect on how people pay for stuff in the real world—perhaps as profound as the iTunes store has had on the distribution and sale of digital media. And in the process, it will likely upend the entire payments industry.

The interesting thing, though, is that it turns out founder Jack Dorsey never really planned this. His initial goals were much more modest: help people who were cut out of the mainstream payments business accept credit cards. To that end, Square’s story holds some important lessons about how entrepreneurs trying to solve a simple problem can sometimes find themselves stumbling onto a huge opportunity.

Square’s origin story is well known: Dorsey’s former boss and good friend (and eventual co-founder) Jim McKelvey lost a sale for his hand-blown glass because he had no way of accepting credit cards. The problem was one many people had--the barriers to setting yourself up through conventional processes to accept credit card payments were too high for many people. So Dorsey set about seeing if he could create a better system.

The result was the Square reader, which launched a year ago and which allows just about anyone to set themselves up to take credit card payments. Even you. Planning a garage sale and want to enable people to pay for your gerbil cages and Shawn Cassidy LPs by credit card? No problem. Square's for you.

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Media Matters

David Brock has spent the last decade apologizing to liberals for his role in creating the vast right-wing conspiracy. Now he’s trying something more ambitious and hoping it gains him the respect he craves from the White House.

by Jason Zengerle

There may be no greater testament to ­David Brock’s central role in the vast left-wing conspiracy than the lengths to which Rupert Murdoch will go to avoid him.

In November, a researcher at Media Matters for America, the liberal press-watchdog group that Brock founded seven years ago, noticed that the website ­Charitybuzz was auctioning a “friendly lunch” with Murdoch to benefit the Global Poverty Project. That one of Brock’s worker bees would be keeping tabs on the News Corp. chairman’s calendar should not be terribly surprising. At Media Matters’ headquarters in Washington, D.C., scores of headphone-wearing staffers spend their days (and nights) staring into their television screens and computer monitors, waiting for the latest bits of “conservative misinformation” to emerge from the Fox News Channel and other corners of the right-wing media landscape, all of which are saved on “the big TiVo”—270 terabytes’ worth of hard drive that store over 300,000 hours of TV shows—so that the offending clips can be uploaded to Media Matters’ website. Are you in need of a compendium of the “50 Worst Things Glenn Beck Said on Fox News”? Fear not, Media Matters’ site has one.

But in the past few months, the group has begun to do more than merely monitor Fox’s programming. “What happened after the Obama election, I think, is that Fox morphed into something that isn’t even recognizable as a form of media,” Brock recently told me. “It looks more like a political committee than what it looked like pre-Obama, which was essentially talk radio on television. It’s more dangerous now; it’s more lethal. And so as Fox has doubled down, we’ve doubled down.” In practice, that means no longer just pointing out inaccuracies. Instead, Media Matters is going on the offensive.

“The truth is that the more responsible the media outlet, the more responsive they are to constructive criticism. But with a Sean Hannity, you can correct the same lie ten times and he’ll keep saying it, so you reach your limits with what you can do defensively,” Brock continued. “Now the idea is: What does it take to get the attention of people above the News Channel? What does it take to get the attention of Murdoch?”

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The Good Life

by Richard Norman

Modern philosophers have been understandably reluctant to pontificate about “the good life”. They have mostly taken the view that it is not the job of philosophers to tell other people how to live their lives. Tastes and preferences differ, people get a kick out of a great variety of things, and if your particular enthusiasm is for gardening, or running marathons, or playing computer games, or playing the financial markets, why should you take any notice of philosophers telling you that you ought to be doing something different?

Maybe there is a place for philosophical accounts of what the morally good life is like. Given the diversity of ways of life, any society, and any modern pluralistic society in particular, is bound to need moral rules which hold this diverse society together and enable people with different ideals and enthusiasms to live alongside one another – values of mutual respect and tolerance, of cooperation, of justice and honesty.

So, it might be said, there is room for substantive philosophical theories about the content of morality, but when it comes to competing pictures of the good life in that wider sense, philosophers are no better placed than anyone else and should refrain from imposing their own predilections on others. We could take a warning from Plato and Aristotle, who were held back by no such inhibitions, and who laboured as philosophers to convince the world that the best life is … the life of the philosopher! To which the appropriate response is “Well they would say that, wouldn’t they?”

Nevertheless, while acknowledging the diversity of tastes and temperaments, maybe we can say something in more general terms about what any human life would have to be like in order to be experienced as satisfying and fulfilling. Perhaps after all we can take a leaf out of Aristotle’s book. The good human life, he says, is the life of happiness – but that as it stands is an empty truism (and it’s even more of a truism in Greek, where the term translated as “happiness” is “eudaimonia”, which could also be translated as “well-being”). What we need, Aristotle says in the Ethics, is some more definite account of what eudaimonia consists in, what makes for a flourishing human life, and for that purpose we need to look at what is distinctive of human beings compared with other living things. I want to take that idea and turn it on its head. What are the distinctive ways in which human lives may fail to be satisfactory? Human beings don’t just suffer physical pain; they don’t just suffer from lack of food and shelter. They may suffer loneliness. They may be bored and frustrated. They may find their lives empty and meaningless. I don’t know whether we can confidently state that these kinds of experience and suffering are uniquely human, but in comparison with the experiences of most other living things they are distinctively human. Conversely, we can venture the general claim that any human being, whatever the particular activities which he or she may go in for, will need to live in a way which avoids or surmounts those sufferings and failings.

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Monday, May 23, 2011

The Edge

Nearly fifty percent of Americans can't come up with $2000. 

Nearly half of Americans are living in a state of "financial fragility," a new paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research reveals. To determine this statistic, researchers from the George Washington School of Business, Princeton University, and Harvard Business School asked survey participants whether they would be able to come up with $2,000 for an "unexpected expense in the next month." 22.2 percent predicted they would be "probably unable" and 27.9 percent said they'd certainly be unable to foot the unplanned bill. The hypothetical cost "reflects the order of magnitude of the cost of an unanticipated major car repair, a large co-payment on a medical expense, legal expenses, or a home repair." But, it was the participants' method of coping that really determined their fragility:
Taken together with those who would pawn their possessions, sell their home, or take out a payday loan, 25.7% of respondents who were asked about coping methods (equal to 18.6% of all respondents) would come up with the funds for an emergency by resorting to what might be seen as extreme measures,” the authors write. “Along with the 27.9% of respondents who report that they could certainly not cope with an emergency, this suggests that approximately 46.5% of all respondents are living very close to the financial edge.
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mioke
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Excuses...

FiveBooks Interview: Jason Zweig on Personal Finance

Bill Gross of PIMCO, the world’s largest bond fund, has written articles saying the US treasuries market is a Ponzi scheme. The stock market has been through a terrifying plunge. Traditionally we learned that our own home, at least, was a safe place to invest our money – but a lot of us have lost on that as well. What’s to be done right now in terms of personal investing? What should our approach be?

It certainly is a frightening time. People had come to regard the entire world around them as an ATM. The bond market was making double digits every year. The stock market provided a double-digit return. Your house would go up at a double-digit rate. You didn’t even have to be smart; no matter what you did, no matter what happened, you would just keep compounding your wealth at 10% or better every year. Because 10% is a round number, it had a strong effect on people’s perceptions and they came to regard it as a right, as a given. Anything you put your money into would go up at least 10% a year for the rest of human history. That never was true, of course. It just took a while to be proven false. Now that it has been proven false, people feel they have lost their moorings. They’re adrift. They don’t trust their brokers, they don’t trust exchanges, they don’t trust regulators, they don’t trust anybody. And, frankly, they probably shouldn’t.

So what do we do? Do these books you’ve chosen offer a clue?

There are a few basic principles that people should keep in mind. There’s an old expression on Wall Street that I’m very fond of, which is: “You get the returns you deserve.” People who had gotten to the point of believing that high returns were a given didn’t deserve to earn them, because the markets don’t exist for our convenience. They don’t exist to make people rich. They exist to transfer capital from people who have an excess of it to people who have a more immediate need for it. Sometimes those are great growing companies that will take that capital and put it to very productive use. At other times, it might be somebody selling bundles of crappy mortgages, and you’re going to lose 95% of what you put in. The reason you get the returns you deserve is because if you put the time and effort into proper research – and into forming realistic expectations – then you’re a lot less likely to get wiped out or be caught by surprise. The real lesson for people from what happened over the past 10 years should be that investing done properly requires either a considerable amount of homework and research, or an enormous amount of emotional equanimity. Ideally it takes both. You have to be prepared for anything and you have to be very humble about the abilities of the experts and yourself to predict what’s about to happen.

Why Privacy Matters Even if You Have 'Nothing to Hide'

by Daniel J. Solove

When the government gathers or analyzes personal information, many people say they're not worried. "I've got nothing to hide," they declare. "Only if you're doing something wrong should you worry, and then you don't deserve to keep it private."

The nothing-to-hide argument pervades discussions about privacy. The data-security expert Bruce Schneier calls it the "most common retort against privacy advocates." The legal scholar Geoffrey Stone refers to it as an "all-too-common refrain." In its most compelling form, it is an argument that the privacy interest is generally minimal, thus making the contest with security concerns a foreordained victory for security.

The nothing-to-hide argument is everywhere. In Britain, for example, the government has installed millions of public-surveillance cameras in cities and towns, which are watched by officials via closed-circuit television. In a campaign slogan for the program, the government declares: "If you've got nothing to hide, you've got nothing to fear." Variations of nothing-to-hide arguments frequently appear in blogs, letters to the editor, television news interviews, and other forums. One blogger in the United States, in reference to profiling people for national-security purposes, declares: "I don't mind people wanting to find out things about me, I've got nothing to hide! Which is why I support [the government's] efforts to find terrorists by monitoring our phone calls!"

The argument is not of recent vintage. One of the characters in Henry James's 1888 novel, The Reverberator, muses: "If these people had done bad things they ought to be ashamed of themselves and he couldn't pity them, and if they hadn't done them there was no need of making such a rumpus about other people knowing."

I encountered the nothing-to-hide argument so frequently in news interviews, discussions, and the like that I decided to probe the issue. I asked the readers of my blog, Concurring Opinions, whether there are good responses to the nothing-to-hide argument. I received a torrent of comments:
  • My response is "So do you have curtains?" or "Can I see your credit-card bills for the last year?"
  • So my response to the "If you have nothing to hide ... " argument is simply, "I don't need to justify my position. You need to justify yours. Come back with a warrant."
  • I don't have anything to hide. But I don't have anything I feel like showing you, either.
  • If you have nothing to hide, then you don't have a life.
  • Show me yours and I'll show you mine.
  • It's not about having anything to hide, it's about things not being anyone else's business.
  • Bottom line, Joe Stalin would [have] loved it. Why should anyone have to say more?
On the surface, it seems easy to dismiss the nothing-to-hide argument. Everybody probably has something to hide from somebody. As Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn declared, "Everyone is guilty of something or has something to conceal. All one has to do is look hard enough to find what it is." Likewise, in Friedrich Dürrenmatt's novella "Traps," which involves a seemingly innocent man put on trial by a group of retired lawyers in a mock-trial game, the man inquires what his crime shall be. "An altogether minor matter," replies the prosecutor. "A crime can always be found."

One can usually think of something that even the most open person would want to hide. As a commenter to my blog post noted, "If you have nothing to hide, then that quite literally means you are willing to let me photograph you naked? And I get full rights to that photograph—so I can show it to your neighbors?" The Canadian privacy expert David Flaherty expresses a similar idea when he argues: "There is no sentient human being in the Western world who has little or no regard for his or her personal privacy; those who would attempt such claims cannot withstand even a few minutes' questioning about intimate aspects of their lives without capitulating to the intrusiveness of certain subject matters."

But such responses attack the nothing-to-hide argument only in its most extreme form, which isn't particularly strong. In a less extreme form, the nothing-to-hide argument refers not to all personal information but only to the type of data the government is likely to collect. Retorts to the nothing-to-hide argument about exposing people's naked bodies or their deepest secrets are relevant only if the government is likely to gather this kind of information. In many instances, hardly anyone will see the information, and it won't be disclosed to the public. Thus, some might argue, the privacy interest is minimal, and the security interest in preventing terrorism is much more important. In this less extreme form, the nothing-to-hide argument is a formidable one. However, it stems from certain faulty assumptions about privacy and its value.

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Elephant in the Green Room

The circus Roger Ailes created at Fox News made his network $900 million last year. But it may have lost him something more important: the next election.

by Gabriel Sherman

On Monday afternoon, March 28, Fox News chairman Roger Ailes summoned Glenn Beck to a meeting in his office on the second floor of News Corp.’s midtown headquarters to discuss his future at the network. Ailes had spent the better part of the weekend at his Putnam County estate thinking about how to stage-manage Beck’s departure from Fox, which at that point was all but inevitable. But, as with everything concerning Glenn Beck, the situation was a mess, simultaneously a negotiation and a therapy session. Beck had already indicated he was willing to walk away—“I don’t want to do cable news anymore,” he had told Ailes. But moving him out the door without collateral damage was proving difficult.

Ailes had hired Beck in October 2008 to reenergize Fox’s audience after Obama’s election, and he’d succeeded beyond anyone’s wildest hopes, tapping deep wells of resentment and igniting them into a vast, national conflagration. The problem was that it had almost engulfed Fox itself. Beck was huge and uncontrollable, and some of Fox’s other big names seemed diminished by comparison—and were speaking up about it. Beck seemed to many to be Fox News’s id made visible, saying things—Obama is a racist, Nazi tactics are progressive tactics—dredged from the right-wing subconscious. These were things that weren’t supposed to be said, even at Fox, and they were consuming the brand. Ailes had built his career by artfully tending the emotional undercurrents of both politics and entertainment, using them to power ratings and political careers; now they were out of his control.

“Let’s make a deal,” Ailes told Beck flatly.

During a 45-minute conversation, the two men agreed on the terms: Beck would give up his daily 5 p.m. program and appear in occasional network “specials”—but even that didn’t solve their problem. Tensions flared over how many specials he would appear in. Fox wanted six, Beck’s advisers wanted four. At another meeting, Beck choked up; he and Ailes had always had a bond. And when Ailes thought Beck’s advisers were jerking him around, he threatened to blow up the talks. “I’m just going to fire him and issue a press release,” he later snapped to a Fox executive.

On April 6, Fox and Beck announced he would be leaving the network. Both were careful to squelch the anonymous backbiting that had been going on for weeks in the press. Ailes knew that a public meltdown would alienate Beck’s legions of fans who had become loyal Fox viewers. Most of all, he didn’t want Beck’s departure to be seen as a victory for the liberal media; that would ruin the most important story line of all.

Ailes is the most successful executive in television by a wide margin, and he has been so for more than a decade. He is also, in a sense, the head of the Republican Party, having employed five prospective presidential candidates and done perhaps more than anyone to alter the balance of power in the national media in favor of the Republicans. “Because of his political work”—Ailes was a media strategist for Nixon, Reagan, and George H. W. Bush—“he understood there was an audience,” Ed Rollins, the veteran GOP consultant, told me. “He knew there were a couple million conservatives who were a potential audience, and he built Fox to reach them.”

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The Science of Self Delusion

by Chris Mooney

"A man with a conviction is a hard man to change. Tell him you disagree and he turns away. Show him facts or figures and he questions your sources. Appeal to logic and he fails to see your point." So wrote the celebrated Stanford University psychologist Leon Festinger, in a passage that might have been referring to climate change denial—the persistent rejection, on the part of so many Americans today, of what we know about global warming and its human causes. But it was too early for that—this was the 1950s—and Festinger was actually describing a famous case study in psychology.

Festinger and several of his colleagues had infiltrated the Seekers, a small Chicago-area cult whose members thought they were communicating with aliens—including one, "Sananda," who they believed was the astral incarnation of Jesus Christ. The group was led by Dorothy Martin, a Dianetics devotee who transcribed the interstellar messages through automatic writing.

Through her, the aliens had given the precise date of an Earth-rending cataclysm: December 21, 1954. Some of Martin's followers quit their jobs and sold their property, expecting to be rescued by a flying saucer when the continent split asunder and a new sea swallowed much of the United States. The disciples even went so far as to remove brassieres and rip zippers out of their trousers—the metal, they believed, would pose a danger on the spacecraft.

Festinger and his team were with the cult when the prophecy failed. First, the "boys upstairs" (as the aliens were sometimes called) did not show up and rescue the Seekers. Then December 21 arrived without incident. It was the moment Festinger had been waiting for: How would people so emotionally invested in a belief system react, now that it had been soundly refuted?

At first, the group struggled for an explanation. But then rationalization set in. A new message arrived, announcing that they'd all been spared at the last minute. Festinger summarized the extraterrestrials' new pronouncement: "The little group, sitting all night long, had spread so much light that God had saved the world from destruction." Their willingness to believe in the prophecy had saved Earth from the prophecy!

From that day forward, the Seekers, previously shy of the press and indifferent toward evangelizing, began to proselytize. "Their sense of urgency was enormous," wrote Festinger. The devastation of all they had believed had made them even more certain of their beliefs.

In the annals of denial, it doesn't get much more extreme than the Seekers. They lost their jobs, the press mocked them, and there were efforts to keep them away from impressionable young minds. But while Martin's space cult might lie at on the far end of the spectrum of human self-delusion, there's plenty to go around. And since Festinger's day, an array of new discoveries in psychology and neuroscience has further demonstrated how our preexisting beliefs, far more than any new facts, can skew our thoughts and even color what we consider our most dispassionate and logical conclusions. This tendency toward so-called "motivated reasoning" helps explain why we find groups so polarized over matters where the evidence is so unequivocal: climate change, vaccines, "death panels," the birthplace and religion of the president, and much else. It would seem that expecting people to be convinced by the facts flies in the face of, you know, the facts.

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Sunday, May 22, 2011