Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts

Monday, December 1, 2025

Here Come China's Food and Drink Chains

Get ready, America: Here come China’s food and drink chains (NYT/ST)

The economic relationship between the United States and China is as fraught as it has been in recent memory, but that has not stopped a wave of Chinese food and beverage chains from moving aggressively into the United States for the first time.

Chinese tea shops in New York and Los Angeles are offering consumers drinks topped with a milk or cheese foam. Fried chicken sandwich joints are trying to lure diners in California with affordable fast food. Restaurant and drink brands, some with thousands of stores in China, are taking root in American cities to escape punishing competition at home.

Heytea, a tea chain originating in Jiangmen, a city in southern China, has opened three dozen stores nationwide since 2023, including a flagship operation in Times Square in New York. Two other rival tea brands, Chagee and Naisnow, opened their first U.S. stores this year. Luckin Coffee, a chain with three outlets for every one Starbucks in China, opened several spots across Manhattan.

Wallace, one of China’s largest fast-food chains with more than 20,000 stores selling fried chicken and hamburgers, landed in Walnut, California, for its first shop. Haidilao, China’s largest hot-pot chain, is redoubling its efforts in the United States after entering the market more than a decade ago.

The American expansion comes at a challenging moment for China’s food and beverage industry. The Chinese economy is no longer growing at a breakneck pace, hampered by a long-running real estate crisis and sluggish consumer spending. To survive, restaurant chains are undercutting one another on prices, inciting an unsustainable, profit-killing race to the bottom. 

by Daisuke Wakabayashi and Joy Dong, NYT/ST |  Read more:
Image: Ava Pellor/The New York Times
[ed. Not to mention Japan's plans to give 7-11's a complete workover.]

Sunday, November 30, 2025

K-Beauty Boom Explodes

On a recent Saturday at an Ulta Beauty store in midtown Manhattan, Denise McCarthy, a mother in her 40s, stood in front of a wall of tiny pastel bottles, tubes and compacts. Her phone buzzed — another TikTok from her 15-year-old daughter.

“My kids text me the TikToks,” she told CNBC, scooping Korean lip tints and sunscreens into her basket, destined for Christmas stockings. “I don’t even know what half of this does. I just buy the ones they send me.”

Two aisles over, a group of college students compared swatches of Korean cushion foundations. A dad asked a store associate whether a viral Korean sunscreen was the one “from the girl who does the ‘get ready with me’ videos.” Near the checkout, a display of Korean sheet mask mini-packs was nearly empty.

Scenes like this are playing out across the country.

Once a niche reserved for beauty obsessives, Korean cosmetics — known as K-beauty — are breaking fully into the American mainstream, fueled by TikTok virality, younger and more diverse shoppers, and aggressive expansion from retailers such as Ulta, Sephora, Walmart and Costco.

K-beauty sales in the United States are expected to top $2 billion in 2025, up more than 37% from last year, according to market research firm NielsenIQ, far outpacing the broader beauty market’s single-digit growth.

And even as trade tensions complicate supply chains, brands and retailers told CNBC the momentum is strong.

“We have no plans of slowing down and see more opportunities to penetrate the market,” said Janet Kim, vice president at K-beauty brand Neogen.

In the first half of 2025, South Korea shipped a record $5.5 billion worth of cosmetics, up nearly 15% year over year, and has become the leading exporter of cosmetics to the U.S., surpassing France, according to data from the South Korean government.

“The growth has been remarkable,” said Therese-Ann D’Ambrosia, vice president of beauty and personal care at NielsenIQ. “When you compare that to the broader beauty market, which is growing at single digits, K-beauty is clearly operating in a different gear right now.” (...)

The ‘second wave’

Over the past decade, there’s also been a rise in Korean entertainment in the U.S. — from pop groups such as BTS and Blackpink to this year’s Netflix hit “KPop Demon Hunters” —which has helped push South Korea’s cultural exports to unprecedented popularity.

“Korean culture has exploded on every front, and that has really shown up when it comes to K-beauty,” Dang said.

K-beauty’s “first wave,” which hit the U.S. in the mid-2010s, was defined by “glass skin,” 10-step routines, snail mucin, cushion compacts and beauty blemish creams. Most products catered to lighter skin tones, and distribution was limited to small boutiques, Amazon sellers and early test placements at Ulta and Sephora, beauty experts said.

“The first wave had some penetration, but nothing like today,” Horvath said. “It was mostly people in the know.”

The second wave has been bigger, faster and far more inclusive. It has spanned color cosmetics, hair and scalp care, body care, fragrances and high-tech devices.

TikTok is the central engine of discovery, especially for Gen Z and millennial shoppers, who account for roughly three-fourths of K-beauty consumers, according to a Personal Care Insights market analyst report. Posts tagged “K-beauty” or “Korean skin care” draw 250 million views per week, according to consumer data firm Spate. And viral products with sleek packaging often vanish from shelves faster than retailers can restock — particularly those that combine gentle formulas and low prices, Dang said.

“TikTok has changed the game,” Horvath said. “It’s easier to educate consumers on innovation and get the word out. Brands are deeply invested in paying influencers, and TikTokers talk about textures, formulas and efficacy.” (...)

The trend is visible across the Americas: 61% of consumers in Mexico and nearly half in Brazil say K-beauty is popular in their country, compared with about 45% in the U.S., according to Statista.

“Traditional retail and e-commerce remain important, but TikTok Shop is the standout disruptor,” said Nielsen’s D’Ambrosia. “It’s not just about the direct sales on that one platform; it’s about how it’s changing the entire discovery and purchase journey.”

But the second wave brings its own risks. A heavy dependence on virality could expose brands to sudden algorithm changes or regulatory scrutiny, D’Ambrosia said.

“When you have so much growth concentrated on one platform [such as TikTok], algorithm changes could significantly impact discoverability overnight,” D’Ambrosia said. “We’ve seen what happens when platforms tweak their recommendation engines. ... There are definitely some caution flags we’re watching.”

Rapid innovation

K-beauty’s staying power, Dang said, is rooted in an intensely competitive domestic Korean market. Trends move at breakneck speed and consumers spend more per capita on beauty than in any other country, according to South Korean research firm KOISRA.

South Korea had more than 28,000 licensed cosmetics sellers in 2024 — nearly double that of five years ago — creating a pressure-cooker environment that forces constant experimentation, said Neogen’s Kim.

“We develop about hundreds of formulas each day,” Kim told CNBC. “We build the library and we test results with clinical individual tests. ... Everything that’s very unique and works really well for skin care, we develop.”

Korean consumers churn through trends quickly, fueling a pipeline of upstart brands that can go viral and, in some cases, get acquired. For example, when gooey snail mucin, a gel used to protect and repair people’s skin, took off globally, skin care brand Amorepacific acquired COSRX, the small Korean brand that helped popularize the ingredient, for roughly $700 million.

The next wave of products, analysts predict, are likely to be even more experimental.

Brands are betting on buzzy ingredients such as DNA extracted from salmon or trout sperm that early research suggests may help calm or repair skin. They are also expanding into biotechnology.

“K-beauty is very data-driven. [Artificial intelligence] helps us get fast results for content, formula development, and advertising,” Kim said. “In Korea, they started talking about delivery systems. They’re very good with biotechnology.”

by Luke Fountain, CNBC |  Read more:
Image: Avila Gonzalez | San Francisco Chronicle | Hearst Newspapers | Getty Images

Thursday, November 27, 2025

Job Hugging and the Ten-Year Trap

The Bullshit Job Is Real. Leaving It Is Almost Impossible.

The career confusion I usually write about involves people in their early twenties trying to figure out which direction to go. But there’s a different kind of confusion that sits with people who are ten or fifteen years into something. They already chose. They’ve been executing that choice for over a decade. The question now is whether to abandon the investment.

This is the person who spent twelve years qualifying for a role that might exist for five more. Who’s watching their industry consolidate, their company restructure for the third time, their colleagues get made redundant in waves. Who makes decent money, holds seniority they earned, and knows that both might evaporate in the next round of cuts.

The question sitting with them: whether the last decade was preparation for obsolescence.

The Ten-Year Trap

Ten years into anything builds three locks simultaneously.

The economic lock is straightforward. A decade of progression means a salary that supports a particular life. Mortgage, school fees, the lifestyle that assumes this income level. Your household budget depends on it. Your partner’s career decisions factor it in. Leaving means accepting a significant pay cut or starting over in a field where you’re competing with people ten years younger who cost half as much.

The psychological lock runs deeper. You’ve been a senior whatever-you-are for years. The title is how you introduce yourself, how your parents describe you, how you think about your place in the world. The identity has fused with the person. Starting over means becoming junior again, and that feels like regression even when it’s rational movement.

Then there’s the skills problem. You’ve spent ten years becoming excellent at navigating a particular regulatory framework, or marketing a channel that’s dying, or accumulating institutional knowledge of systems that won’t outlast you. The expertise might not transfer anywhere else. You won’t know until you try, and trying means leaving.

Each year adds weight to these locks. The salary increases. The identity solidifies. The skills specialise further. You’ve optimised yourself for one context, and now that context is uncertain.

Why This Hits Different


This has happened before. Miners watched pits close. Typists saw word processors arrive. Factory workers watched production move overseas. Entire industries disappeared, often rapidly, leaving people with skills that had no market.

But those were working-class jobs. The middle-class professional path was supposed to be different. University degree, graduate scheme, steady progression, pension at the end. The bargain was: get educated, specialise in something professional, and you’ll have security.

That bargain is breaking for a different class of worker now. The comfortable middle-skilled roles, the ones requiring degrees and years of training, are the ones getting automated or consolidated. People who did everything right by the old rules are discovering their expertise has an expiration date.

The decline happens fast enough that you can’t pivot gradually, but slow enough that you keep thinking you have time. Restructures happen every eighteen months. Colleagues disappear in rounds. The company says it’s about efficiency, about staying competitive, about the future. You watch the org chart shrink and know that your highly paid, highly specific role could be next.

The Recognition Point

Something specific triggers the realisation. Someone five years younger gets made redundant and you understand that seniority makes you expensive to keep. You see your exact role automated at a competitor. You’re in your third restructure in five years and the pattern becomes impossible to ignore. You try explaining what you do and realise you’re describing institutional knowledge of a dying system rather than a transferable skill.

The recognition makes everything worse because now you know you’re trapped and you’re still not leaving.

The questions that follow have no good answers. How severe is the decline? Is this slow erosion over another decade or rapid collapse where half the roles disappear in three years? Industry analysis is always backwards-looking. By the time consensus forms that a sector is dying, it’s already dead.

What transfers? You’ve become excellent at something specific. Maybe it’s risk assessment and it works everywhere. Maybe it’s navigating particular regulations and it works nowhere else. You discover this in job interviews, explaining why someone should hire you for work you’ve never done, competing against people who have.

The financial calculation involves variables you can’t control. How long could you survive without income? What pay cut is survivable? These depend on your partner’s salary, your savings, your mortgage, your tolerance for uncertainty. They have to be assessed without admitting you’re considering blowing up the household finances.

Timing becomes impossible to judge. Leave now and you preserve some career momentum. You’re choosing to go rather than being pushed. But you’re walking away from salary and seniority you might keep for another three years. Wait for redundancy and you get a package, but you’re also older, in a market flooded with other redundancies, and you’ve lost time you could have spent retraining.

The worst question sits underneath everything: what if your skills are too specific and you genuinely can’t transfer? What if the last ten years made you excellent at something nobody else needs? What if you leave, burn through savings trying to pivot, and discover you’re competing for entry-level positions against twenty-five-year-olds who’ll work for half what you need?

None of these have answers because they all depend on information you don’t possess. You can’t know your skills transfer until you’ve transferred them. You can’t know when redundancies hit until they hit. You can’t know if you’ve waited too long until you’ve already waited too long.

Some people can move with incomplete information and accept they might be wrong. Most people can’t. The uncertainty paralyses, so they wait for certainty, and by the time certainty arrives, the decision has been made for them.

by Alex McCann, The Republic of Letters | Read more:
Image: istock/Getty via
[ed. ed. See also: Confessions of a job hugger: Still at my desk, still in denial (ADN):]

"Job huggers — employees clinging to roles long past their expiration date — lurk in cubicles in many workplaces. According to Monster’s 2025 Job Hugging Report, 48% of surveyed employees say they stay in their current role for comfort, security or stability.

For these employees, job hugging is the workplace version of comfort food: familiar, filling and guaranteed to leave you sluggish. They don’t love their jobs but don’t see anything better on the horizon. They stay because the devil they know offers dental coverage, even though the spark that once made them excited about their jobs wheezes for oxygen.

Behind many “grateful to have a job” smiles sits quiet dread. Sunday nights hit like sentencing hearings. Job huggers run mental marathons of justification: Maybe my boss will retire. Maybe next quarter will improve. Maybe leadership will finally hire that extra person they promised back when TikTok was new.

Spoiler: They won’t.

The truth: Job huggers don’t cling to jobs; they cling to security, identity and even social connection. Letting go of a problem job before an employee finds a new landing spot feels like jumping from a plane without a functioning parachute."

Tuesday, November 25, 2025

The Prospects For Left-Wing Populism

The prospects for left-wing populism.

The difference between Mamdani’s pitch and the Bernie/AOC line is easy to see, if one has the correct understanding of populism. In fact, the comparison provides a good example of how widespread misunderstanding of populism handicaps left-wing strategy. The crucial thing to understand about populism, and populist anger, is that it is a revolt directed against cognitive elites, not economic elites. Its centerpiece is the affirmation of “common sense” against the sort of “fancy theories” defended by intellectuals and their lackeys. (...)

An easy way to distinguish a populist appeal from a technocratic one is that the populist message will restrict itself entirely to primary representations. For example, the “cost of living” is not a primary representation, it is an abstract concept. The price of groceries, on the other hand, is a primary representation – everyone can easily summon up an image of the price, on the supermarket shelf, the last time they bought orange juice or bread. This is, of course, something that Trump spent a great deal of time talking about (“groceries, such a simple word”), and that the Brahmin left in America spent a great deal of time making fun of him for (e.g. here). In so doing, they exhibited a sort of higher-order stupidity. As Stanovich observes, the thing about primary representations is that they have a “special salience” that abstract concepts will never possess. (...)

From this analysis, one can see also why the Bernie/AOC “billionaires are bad” pitch is not genuine populism. The problem with criticizing inequality is that inequality is another abstraction, one that only intellectuals care about per se. There’s lots of research showing that most people have no idea what the distribution of income and wealth is in their society, in part because they don’t really care. What they do care about, first and foremost, is their own financial situation. To the extent that they are bothered by what others have, their attitudes are based on comparison to a specific reference group. They pick out an individual or group who is thought to be comparably situated to themselves (e.g. neighbours, high-school classmates, siblings, etc.), who then serve as a source of primary representations. They judge their own level of success and material comfort based on how well their situation compares to that of these people. (Hence the kernel of truth at the heart of H. L. Mencken’s observation that a truly wealthy man is one who earns more than his wife’s sister’s husband.) The problem with complaining about Jeff Bezos’s yacht, or Elon Musk’s effective tax rate, as a political strategy, is that these people are completely outside the reference class of all but a small handful of Americans. As a result, their financial situation is completely incommensurable with that of the average person. It is very difficult to cultivate resentment, or any other strong feeling, by inviting people to contemplate an abstraction.

In order to do populism effectively, politicians must not only focus on problems that the public cares about, they must also by-and-large accept the public’s framing of those problems. This creates a dilemma for the left, because that framing, in a complex modern society, will usually be incorrect. As a result, it is extremely difficult to find issues on which left-wing politicians can be authentically populist.

by Joeseph Heath, In Due Course |  Read more:
Image: uncredited
[ed. Sounds about right. See also: Why We Never Hear About the Countries Where Socialism Works (Amie Boakye).]

When most people hear the word socialism, the first images that flash across their minds are grim ones: long bread lines in the Soviet Union, economic collapse in Venezuela, or repression in Cuba. In popular Western discourse, socialism has been painted as synonymous with failure, inefficiency, and authoritarianism. The narrative is so ingrained that even those who’ve never studied political theory or looked closely at history reflexively think socialism equals poverty.

But here’s the paradox: many countries around the world have quietly, effectively integrated socialist principles into their political and economic systems. And they are thriving. These nations often rank among the happiest, healthiest, and most educated societies on Earth. So why don’t we hear about them? Why do their successes stay in the shadows while the failures dominate headlines?

The short answer: power, perception, and politics.

Before diving into examples, it’s important to define what socialism means in practice, because the word itself has become a linguistic battlefield. For some, socialism means full state control over production and distribution. For others, it’s a mixed economy where public services like healthcare, education, and infrastructure are guaranteed, while markets handle the rest.

In reality, modern socialism often looks less like Soviet central planning and more like a robust safety net combined with democratic governance. It’s universal healthcare in Sweden, tuition-free universities in Finland, and public housing in Vienna. It’s not the abolition of markets, but the idea that essential services should be protected from market failure.

That distinction matters. Because much of the West’s fear-mongering about socialism rests on outdated caricatures.

Saturday, November 22, 2025

What Does China Want?

Abstract

The conventional wisdom is that China is a rising hegemon eager to replace the United States, dominate international institutions, and re-create the liberal international order in its own image. Drawing on data from 12,000 articles and hundreds of speeches by Xi Jinping, to discern China's intentions we analyze three terms or phrases from Chinese rhetoric: “struggle” (斗争), “rise of the East, decline of the West” (东升西降), and “no intention to replace the United States” ((无意取代美国). Our findings indicate that China is a status quo power concerned with regime stability and is more inwardly focused than externally oriented. China's aims are unambiguous, enduring, and limited: It cares about its borders, sovereignty, and foreign economic relations. China's main concerns are almost all regional and related to parts of China that the rest of the region has agreed are Chinese—Hong Kong, Taiwan, Tibet, and Xinjiang. Our argument has three main implications. First, China does not pose the type of military threat that the conventional wisdom claims it does. Thus, a hostile U.S. military posture in the Pacific is unwise and may unnecessarily create tensions. Second, the two countries could cooperate on several overlooked issue areas. Third, the conventional view of China plays down the economic and diplomatic arenas that a war-fighting approach is unsuited to address.

There is much about China that is disturbing for the West. China's gross domestic product grew from $1.2 trillion in 2000 to $17 trillion in 2023. Having modernized the People's Liberation Army over the past generation, China is also rapidly increasing its stockpile of nuclear warheads. China spends almost $300 billion annually on defense. Current leader Xi Jinping has consolidated power and appears set to rule the authoritarian Communist country indefinitely. Chinese firms often engage in questionable activities, such as restricting data, inadequately enforcing intellectual property rights, and engaging in cyber theft. The Chinese government violates human rights and restricts numerous personal freedoms for its citizens. In violation of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), every country in the region, including China, is reclaiming land and militarizing islets in the disputed East and South China Seas. In short, China poses many potential problems to the United States and indeed to the world.

In U.S. academic and policymaking circles, the conventional wisdom is that China wants to dominate the world and expand its territory. For example, Elbridge Colby, deputy assistant secretary of defense during Donald Trump's first term and undersecretary of defense for Trump's second term, writes: “If China could subjugate Taiwan, it could then lift its gaze to targets farther afield … a natural next target for Beijing would be the Philippines … Vietnam, although not a U.S. ally, might also make a good target.” (...) The then–U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said in 2022 that “China is the only country with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to do it.” Trump's former U.S. trade representative, Robert Lithgizer, claims that “China to me is an existential threat to the United States…. China views itself as number one in the world and wants to be that way.”

These assessments of China's intentions lead mainstream U.S. scholars and policy analysts from both the Left and the Right to policy prescriptions that will take generations to unfold, and that are almost completely focused on war-fighting, deterrence, and decoupling from China. Those who believe in this China threat call for increasing U.S. military expenditures and showing “resolve” toward China. The conventional wisdom also advocates a regional expansion of alliances with any country, democratic or authoritarian, that could join the United States to contain China. As Colby writes, “This is a book about war.” Brands and Beckley argue that the United States should reinforce its efforts to deter China from invading Taiwan: “What is needed is a strategy to deter or perhaps win a conflict in the 2020s … the Pentagon can dramatically raise the costs of a Chinese invasion by turning the international waters of the Taiwan Strait into a death trap for attacking forces.” Doshi argues that the United States should arm countries such as “Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India” with capabilities to contain China.

This leads to a key question: What does China want? To answer this question, this article examines contemporary China's goals and fears in words and deeds. In contrast to the conventional view, the evidence provided in this article leads to one overarching conclusion and three specific observations. Overall, China is a status quo power concerned with regime stability, and it remains more inwardly focused than externally oriented. More specifically: China's aims are unambiguous; China's aims are enduring; and China's aims are limited.

First, China's aims are unambiguous: China cares about its borders, its sovereignty, and its foreign economic relations. China cares about its unresolved borders in the East and South China Seas and with India, respectively. Almost all of its concerns are regional. Second, China deeply cares about its sovereign rights over various parts of China that the rest of the region has agreed are Chinese—Hong Kong, Taiwan, Tibet, and Xinjiang. Third, China has an increasingly clear economic strategy for its relations with both East Asia and the rest of the world that aims to expand trade and economic relations, not reduce them.

It is also clear what China does not want: There is little mention in Chinese discourse of expansive goals or ambitions for global leadership and hegemony. Furthermore, China is not exporting ideology. Significantly, the CCP's emphasis on “socialism with Chinese characteristics” is not a generalized model for the world. In contrast, the United States claims to represent global values and norms. What China also does not want is to invade and conquer other countries; there is no evidence that China poses an existential threat to the countries on its borders or in its region that it does not already claim sovereignty over.

We explore how China views its own position and role in the region and globally. Recognizing that public statements vary in their level of authoritativeness, we examined three main sources: People's Daily, which represents not only the state but also the Central Committee of the CCP; Xi Jinping's and other senior officials' speeches; and Qiushi, a magazine publicizing the CCP's latest policy directions. We used computer-assisted text analysis to systematically assess China's stated goals over time. This method allowed us to more accurately track China's concerns and identify how they have changed. We also show that China's top leaders consistently reiterate that China does not seek regional hegemony or aim to compete with the United States for global supremacy. Instead, China views international relations as multilateral and cooperative.

Second, China's aims are inherited and enduring, not new. There is a “trans-dynastic” Chinese identity: Almost every major issue that the People's Republic of China (PRC) cares about today dates back to at least the nineteenth century during the Qing dynasty. These are not new goals that emerged after the Communist victory in 1949, and none of China's core interests were created by Xi. These are enduring Chinese concerns, even though the political authority governing China has changed dramatically and multiple times over the past two hundred years or more.

Third, what China wants is limited, even though its power has rapidly expanded over the past generation. China's claims and goals are either being resolved or remain static. This reality is in contrast to many of the expectations of U.S. policymakers and to the conventional wisdom of the international relations scholarly literature, which maintains that states' interests will grow as power grows. Rather, the evidence shows that the Chinese leadership is concerned about internal challenges more than external threats or expansion.

We find that China does not pose the type of military threat that the conventional wisdom claims it does. Consequently, there is no need for a hostile military posture in the Pacific, and indeed the United States may be unnecessarily creating tensions. Just as important, we suggest that there is room for the two countries to cooperate on a number of issues areas that are currently overlooked. Finally, the conventional view of China de-emphasizes the economic and diplomatic arenas that a war-fighting approach is unsuited to address. The conventional wisdom about U.S. grand strategy is problematic, and the vision of China that exists in Washington is dangerously wrong.

This article proceeds as follows. First, we discuss the conventional wisdom regarding China's goals as represented by top policymakers in the United States and in the existing scholarly literature. The second section examines Chinese rhetoric and points out nuances in how to read and interpret Chinese rhetoric. The third section uses quantitative methods to more systematically and accurately assess Chinese claims across time as reflected in the most authoritative Chinese pronouncements. The fourth section details how China's main priorities are enduring and trans-dynastic, and the fifth section shows how the most important of these claims are not expanding, even though China's power has grown rapidly over the past generation. We present the implications of our argument for the U.S.-China relationship in the conclusion.

by David C. Kang, Jackie S. H. Wong, Zenobia T. Chan, MIT Press | Read more:
Image: via
[ed. The Roman empire collapsed because it was overextended. China won't make that mistake. They'll just get stronger and more self-reliant - securing their borders, advancing technology, providing security for their citizens. Dominant because they have a strategy for advancing their country's long-term interests, not dominance for its own sake. Most US problems have been self-inflicted - militarily, economically, politically, techologically. We've been distracted and screwing around for decades, empire building and trying to rule the world.]

On the Death of Tech Idealism (and Rise of the Homeless) in Northern California

One can imagine a young Steve Jobs digging the communalism of today’s Bay Area camps, whose countercultural idealism shares many threads with that of the Valley’s early hippie-nerds—ironic given the bulldozing of camps in the shadows of contemporary tech campuses and their tightly conformist corporate cultures. The commonalities don’t stretch very far: A rather thick thread in the hippie-techie braid is individualism, a whole lot of which hid behind the Me generation’s “New Communalist” movement. The marriage of these Bay Area cultures is alive and well, but today has more of a New Age–Burning Man vibe. (...)

Unhoused communities don’t randomly burble up from the sidewalk. They are born of the housed communities around them, which in the Valley’s case is a particularly curious one. The Valley’s valley is wide and smoggy enough that some days you can’t see the mountain ranges that form it. The scorching Diablo Range, where cattle roam oceans of desiccated grass, lies to the east.

On the other side, the lusher Santa Cruz Mountains, a place of dank redwood forests, organic farming communes, and uppity vineyards, form a verdant curtain between the Valley and the ocean. Here the tech elite build their villas and take to the fog-kissed ravines for athleisure-clad recreation.

The valley started to become the Valley in 1943 when IBM opened a factory to manufacture punch cards in San José. At the time, orchards carpeted much of the region. When the trees blossomed in early spring, the honey-scented flowers intoxicated bees and lovers alike. During the late summer harvest, the air was a punch bowl. Maps referred to it then as the Santa Clara Valley, but romantic minds of the day christened it the Valley of Heart’s Delight, after a 1927 poem by a local writer with Wordsworthian sensibilities, named Clara Louise Lawrence.
No brush can paint the picture
No pen describe the sight
That one can find in April
In “The Valley of Heart’s Delight.”
Cupertino did not exist back then. The Glendenning family farmed the land where the Apple Spaceship now sits. Prunes were their specialty. The farm was on Pruneridge Avenue—the valley was considered the prune capital of the world, supplying 30 percent of the global market—which passed through their orchards near the present location of Steve Jobs Theater, a smaller circular building next to the mothership.

But Apple bought the road from the city—$23,814,257 for a half mile—so you can’t drive through there anymore. Between the steel bars of the fence you can still catch a glimpse of the Glendennings’ old fruit-drying barn, which has been renovated and is now storage for landscaping equipment. The new orchards and the old barn help soften the Pentagon vibe with a little farm-to-table ambience.

The Valley’s valley is not a stereotypical one because it lacks a mighty river meandering between the mountain ranges. Instead, there is the southern leg of San Francisco Bay, a shallow, brackish estuary fed by measly creeks that barely run in the dry season. It’s a bird and crustacean paradise, but the lack of fresh water and ocean currents make for a putrid aroma that’s further intensified by the landfills, wastewater treatment plants, and commercial salt-harvesting operations clustered around the waterfront.

The smell is so intense that it’s spawned a South Bay Odor Stakeholders Group “dedicated to identifying and resolving odor issues.” One finds Reddit threads with titles like South Bay Fucking Smell: “south bay people, you know what i mean. where the fuck is this rancid ass smell coming from. it’s pretty common for it to smell like shit here, i’ve smelled it my whole life, but i just want to know where it’s comin from. My guess is the shitty salty shallow south bay water spewing out smelly air, but idk.”

“That, or else it’s your mom,” replied another user, who referred to the odor as “the ass cloud.” The poetics of the region have shifted since Lawrence’s day.

The ass cloud did not dissuade the early tech settlers, who followed the money flowing from the patron saint of the Valley’s venture capitalists: DARPA, the Department of Defense’s secretive research agency, which commissioned much of the basic science from which the IT revolution sprang. While farms like the Glendennings’ continued to pump out prunes on the arable land between the Bay and the mountains, the military-industrial complex set up along the mud flats. The Navy built an eight-acre dirigible hangar in Mountain View, still one of the largest freestanding structures ever erected. The CIA quietly rooted itself among the reeds and spread rhizomatically. During the Cold War, aerospace companies blossomed between DOD installations. Lockheed was the Valley’s biggest employer when Kent and Steve Jobs were growing up in the suburbs that slowly consumed the orchards.

The American tech industry was born in the Bay Area because its defense industry parents came here to ward off the Japanese—during World War II, this was the gateway to the “Pacific Theater,” as the Asian front of the war was euphemistically referred to. This first generation of the Valley “seeded companies that repurposed technologies built for war to everyday life,” writes Margaret O’Mara, a tech industry historian. “Today’s tech giants all contain some defense-industry DNA.”

Jeff Bezos’s grandfather, for instance, was a high-ranking official at the US Atomic Energy Commission and at ARPA, the precursor to DARPA. Jerry Wozniak, father of Apple’s other Steve—Steve “The Woz” Wozniak, the company cofounder and part of the gang tweaking on computers in the Jobs’ garage—was an engineer at Lockheed. The military forefathers of the Valley must have been horrified at the hippies their children became, though by the eighties the arc of flower power had bent toward the common ground of Wall Street.

The Navy’s dirigible hangar still looms over the Bay, but Google now rents the property from the government for the parking of private jets. The company dominates the neighborhood to the west of the hangar, a spread of dull office buildings revolving around the central Googleplex, with its employee swimming pools, volleyball courts, and eighteen cafeterias. There are no houses or apartments in the neighborhood, though there are residential districts—of a sort. These are surprisingly affordable, which means that some of the folks who smear avocado on the techies’ toast and stock the kombucha taps have the good fortune to live nearby.

It’s easy to miss their humble abodes, however. An out-of-towner who gets off at the Google exit to take a leak could be forgiven for thinking they’d stumbled across some sort of RV convention. But those aren’t recreational vehicles lining the backstreets of the Google-burbs—those are homes on wheels.

RVs parked on the side of the road are the new desirable real estate, and like the old industrial cores of American cities that have evolved from roughshod hangouts for unemployed artists to haute loft developments for upwardly mobile professionals, their inhabitants aren’t immune to class stratification. Most of the rigs are older, ramshackle models, but here and there shiny coaches broadcast the relative wealth of their inhabitants—techies who could afford an apartment but don’t want to waste their money on rent.

They roll out of bed, hop on a company bike, and are at the office in three minutes, in the meantime saving up for a big house in the outer, outer, outer burbs, where you can still get a McMansion for under $3 million. Some already have the McMansion and use their RV as a workweek crash pad.

The more-rickety RVs belong to the avocado smearers and lawn mower operators. Crisanto Avenue, five minutes from the Googleplex, is the Latin America of Mountain View’s homes-on-wheels community. It’s like a museum of 1980s RVs—Toyota Escapers, Winnebago Braves, Chevy Lindys, Fleetwood Jamborees—most of them emanating Spanish banter, many with blue tarps over the roof, and some leaking unmentionable juices from onboard septic tanks. Apartments line one side of Crisanto, but the side with the RVs fronts onto train tracks. A shaded strip of earth along the tracks, maybe twelve feet wide, serves as a communal front yard, complete with potted plants and patio furniture, for pets and kids to play.

An older Peruvian woman named Ida invited me into her RV, where a half-eaten pineapple sat serenely on an otherwise empty table. She used to live in a two-bedroom apartment with sixteen other people—“Fue imposible!” she said—until she learned of the RV scene. She couldn’t afford to purchase one, but there’s a growing industry in the Valley for old-school RV rentals; residents on Crisanto told me they pay between $500 and $1,000 per month, depending on the RV, plus a $75 fee to pump sewage.

Since Ida arrived in the US in 2003, she has worked mainly as a nanny, often for around six dollars per hour. Work was sparse during the pandemic, so she accepted whatever pay she was offered. One family gave her twenty dollars for taking care of their two children for twelve hours. She’d held America in high esteem before living here. “La vida en los Estados Unidos es terrible,” she said.

My visual experience of the Valley began to shift. My eyes had once flashed at views of the water, clever billboards (“Hey Facebook, our planet doesn’t like your climate posts”), and homes with the billowy, buff-colored grasses and scrawny wildflowers that signify the aesthetics of people who can afford expensive landscaping designed to look feral.

But the more time I spent with the Valley’s have-nots, the more my focus became trained on the visual language of the income inequality ecosystem: the camouflage patterns of desiccated vegetation pocked with blue tarps and plastic bags flapping in the branches; the hulking silhouettes of recreational vehicles parked in non-recreational environments; the bodies splayed out on the sidewalk. (...)

“Vanlife has become the norm here,” a veteran gig worker named Chase, who’s driven for Uber, Instacart, and Amazon Flex, told me. He was not talking about hipsters who move into a home on wheels because it sounds like a fun and Instagrammable lifestyle. He was referring to his colleagues who have no other choice.

by Brian Barth, LitHub |  Read more:
Image: uncredited

Wednesday, November 19, 2025

Tequila Wars: 100 Percent Should Mean 100 Percent

[ed. Costco, Kendall Jenner, Diego Corp (Don Julio, Casamigos, etc.) others accused of selling adulterated tequila.]

Mexico City— At an October 16 press conference, Remberto Galván Cabrera announced that four additional tequila brands have failed the purity test. According to Galván, these major brands are masquerading as premium 100% agave tequila, but are actually adulterated with industrial cane alcohol. He has the lab tests to prove it. And no, he’s not talking about Don Julio, Casamigos, Cincoro, or 818, which have been slapped with class action lawsuits for allegedly selling adulterated tequila in the US.

If you’ve been following this unfolding drama, you may remember that Galván is a spokesperson for agave farmers (currently Agaveros de la Agroindustria del Tequila) who have been protesting industry corruption and unfair practices for over a year.
 
In September, Galván lodged a formal complaint with the government, demanding a criminal investigation of the CRT, the organization that regulates the tequila industry. The CRT is tasked with ensuring that all tequila meets legal standards, but Galván alleges that the organization is instead profiting from authorizing the sale of adulterated tequila. Galván traveled to the neighboring state of Guanajuato to request the investigation. His home state of Jalisco is the stronghold of the CRT, which influences local politics.

“The CRT certifies a product as 100% agave when it isn’t,” Galván stated, “With these tests, we prove it. The organization acts as a monopoly that favors industrialists, marginalizes small producers, and puts public health at risk.”

The CRT is a nonprofit “interprofessional organization” that supposedly represents all players in the tequila industry–including agave farmers. In October of 2024, a coalition of agaveros challenged this claim. The price of agave had dropped from 32 pesos a kilo (in 2018) to just one peso a kilo, and the farmers had a litany of complaints. They alleged that the drop in prices wasn’t just the same old boom and bust cycle that had plagued agave farmers for years. At a protest outside of CRT headquarters in Zapopan, Jalisco, agaveros sounded the alarm, alleging that the CRT was colluding with major tequila companies to drive down agave prices and squeeze out small farmers

Curious to know more about the source of this unrest, I sought out Remberto Galván Cabrera. He was loquacious, passionate, and hellbent to expose the alleged corruption. Much of what he said seemed plausible. The idea of corporations colluding to screw over farmers? Sure. The agaveros’ accusation that a regulatory body (the CRT) was corrupt? Certainly possible. His allegation that giant corporations were breaking international laws to adulterate their supposedly premium tequilas? That was harder to swallow. I couldn’t understand why they would take such a giant risk when it would be relatively easy to prove that a tequila was corrupted. Galván assured me there was evidence, but he wasn’t ready to release it. Fast forward about a year…

Since we first broke the story of the allegations in January of 2025, the drama has escalated. Galván was kidnapped and beaten. His phone and paperwork were stolen. Two leaders in the movement, Julián Rodríguez Parra and Salvador Ibarra Landeros, were arrested and jailed. I received veiled threats. The agaveros continued to stage protests.

Casamigos, Don Julio, Cincoro, and 818 accused of selling fake tequila

Although the protesting agaveros were making a lot of noise, the story wasn’t picked up by major news sources until May 5, 2025, when we reported that a class action lawsuit had been filed in New York against liquor giant Diageo. The lawsuit alleges that two Diageo tequilas, Casamigos and Don Julio, were adulterated with industrial alcohol. Diageo refuted the allegations stating, “All Casamigos and Don Julio tequilas labelled as ‘100% agave’ are made from 100% blue weber agave. We will vigorously defend the quality and integrity of our tequilas in court, and against anyone who is spreading misinformation and lies about our products.”

On July 4, another class action lawsuit was filed in California, opening the field of plaintiffs to anyone in the US who had bought Don Julio or Casamigos products. Since then, additional tequila brands have been slapped with lawsuits, including Kendall Jenner’s 818 tequila. In a case filed in Florida, the plaintiffs accuse 818 of knowingly selling adulterated tequila.

According to the September 23 filing, “Defendants actively concealed and misrepresented the true nature of how their Products were manufactured and composition of their Products. Indeed, Defendants concealed and misrepresented that they had in fact utilized sugars other than those obtained from the tequilana weber blue variety of agave to enhance their tequila, despite the Products being labeled as 100% agave azul.” (...)

So how bad is the adulterated “tequila”?

“The four samples we analyzed were adulterated with cheap cane alcohol,” Galván says. “Two samples weren’t even recognized as mixto tequila, meaning they have 33% agave sugars or less. The other two barely reached 51% agave.” He notes that one sample also had unsafe levels of methanol–a factor the CRT supposedly monitors.

We contacted the CRT for comment but have not yet received a reply. They have declined our previous request.

The numbers Galván lists are consistent with the test results cited in the California class action lawsuit, which was filed on July 4 by Baron & Budd in conjunction with Hagens Berman, who were responsible for the first class action lawsuit in New York.

According to the legal team, tests revealed that Casamigos Blanco contains approximately 33% agave-derived alcohol. Supposedly, Don Julio Blanco is 42% agave, while their pricey 1942 Añejo contains just 33% agave. As the complaint summarizes, “These findings directly contradict the prominent ‘100% Agave’ labels on Diageo Premium tequila products and confirm that Diageo’s representations are materially false and misleading.”

by Felisa Rogers, Mezcalitas |  Read more:
Image: via
[ed. See also: Costco implicated in adulterated tequila scandal; and, Tequila test results revealed, death threats, and other breaking news (Mezcalitas):]
***
Since we last reported on the tequila adulteration scandal, A LOT has happened. To make sense of it, I’ve created a timeline of recent revelations, followed by my takeaways and a chilling message from the man who has risked everything to bring this story to light. (...)

My takeaways…

At this point, it’s challenging to track all these law suits, law firms, and formal complaints. Meanwhile, we wonder why this story isn’t receiving more attention in the mainstream press. (...)

We continued to cover the protests and negotiations, but the allegations of adulterated tequila didn’t gain traction until May, when we reported that a major law firm was bringing a class action lawsuit against Diageo, the parent company of Casamigos and Don Julio, for allegedly selling adulterated tequila masquerading as a 100% agave premium product. Our story was picked up by Reuters, trade publications, and other outlets. The scandal has since snowballed into more lawsuits, outraged declarations of innocence, and a whole lot of speculation.

But to me, the agaveros are still at the heart of this drama. In a nutshell: this is a story about giant corporations allegedly colluding with a regulatory agency to improve their profit margins. By allegedly adulterating tequila with industrial alcohol, these players are devaluing the price of agave. This is unfair to both the agaveros and the legitimate distillers who are still making real tequila with care and at much greater cost.

It’s also a tale of courage in the face of enormous danger. Since beginning this crusade, Remberto Galván has been abducted and beaten. Two other agavero leaders, Julián Rodríguez and Salvador Ibarra, were arrested for protesting outside of the Sauza distillery and held in jail for 72 days. We are seriously concerned for the safety of everyone who continues to speak out on this issue.

Galván says that he and his associates have received threatening anonymous phone calls. According to Galván, he was told that if doesn’t back down, his body parts will be strewn around his home.

But the alleged intimidation goes beyond death threats. According to Galván, his own distillery, La Alborada, was targeted. He says a friend and colleague was pressured to plant adulterated tequila on the premises.

This appears to be a theme. Galván, a crusader against adulterated tequila, may be charged with adulterating tequila. Julián Rodríguez, an advocate for the rights of farmers, was charged with extortion and intimidation of Sauza for engaging in a peaceful protest outside the entrance of their distillery.

Galván fears for his life. He asked us to put this in the public record.

Tuesday, November 18, 2025

Chasing the Tomato

When Panera Bread began shrinking its sandwiches and skimping on salads, it started shedding customers.

Now, to win them back, the chain plans to reinvest in the business and undo many of those same cost-cutting measures, it said Tuesday.

Once the No. 1 fast-casual brand in the U.S., Panera has dipped to No. 3, ceding the top spots to Chipotle Mexican Grill and Panda Express. Last year, its sales fell 5% to $6.1 billion, according to Technomic estimates. For years, the chain’s traffic has been shrinking, according to CEO Paul Carbone, who took the reins earlier this year. Controversy after the chain’s foray into energy drinks didn’t help matters, either. (...)

Entering the value wars

Phase one of Panera’s plan is to improve the quality of its food, reversing cost-cutting measures imposed in the face of high inflation, according to Carbone.

“We squeezed food costs. We squeezed labor,” he said. [ed. Translation: we enshitified our product and screwed employees.

Some of those changes happened while Carbone was chief financial officer. He now calls himself a “reformed CFO” — albeit one who still listens to earnings conference calls.

“It’s really about death by a thousand paper cuts, it truly is,” Carbone said about the chain’s downturn.

Take Panera’s salads, for example. In the summer of 2024, Panera began using a mix of half romaine, half iceberg lettuce to make its salads, saving the chain money compared with when it was using romaine alone. This summer, it reverted back to entirely romaine salads.

“You know what guests told us? No one likes iceberg, and no one gets that and says, ‘Oh my God, that white salad, it looks so appetizing,’” Carbone said.

And then there’s the cherry tomato. Carbone said Panera is one of the few restaurant chains that doesn’t slice the bite-sized tomatoes in half, a decision made to save on labor costs.

“We make the guest chase the cherry tomato around the bowl,” he said.

And when a salad comes with an avocado, customers have to cut the halved fruit themselves, rather than it coming presliced. The chain will start slicing the cherry tomatoes and avocados early next year.

Plus, Panera’s salads typically have five ingredients, while those of competitors like Sweetgreen feature as many as eight.

But it wasn’t just salads that were affected by the cost-cutting measures.

“In some instances, we shrunk portions, so guests would walk into our cafe to buy a sandwich that has gone up significantly in price, with lower-quality ingredients, in a smaller size,” Carbone said.

The menu refresh will also include new items. Last month, the chain announced that it is testing new “fresca” and “energy refresher” drinks.

Panera previously offered highly caffeinated energy drinks, but it discontinued the line, which included Charged Lemonade, following two wrongful death lawsuits and related negative publicity. Panera denied wrongdoing and settled the lawsuits earlier this year.

When it comes to value, Panera is planning on leaning into a barbell menu strategy, offering customers options on both the low- and high-price end. The approach has worked particularly well for casual-dining chains like Chili’s, but Panera doesn’t have the same appetizer offerings as a full-service restaurant.

“We haven’t cracked the code yet,” Carbone said. “We’re doing a lot of testing.”

by Amelia Lucas, CNBC |  Read more:
Image: Joe Raedle|Getty Images
[ed. Never eaten there and can confidently predict never will.]

Sunday, November 16, 2025

Honeycrisp Apples Are Popular Worldwide. Some Washington Growers Hate Them

Ever since Eve bit the forbidden fruit, apples have held a certain mystique.

They say that one a day keeps the doctor away. Billions per year keep Washington farms hopping. And “if each person ate 2.5 more pounds of apples” per year, said fourth-generation farmer Kait Thornton, “you could save the apple industry” in our state.

In Washington, more than 5 billion pounds of apples were produced this fall by an industry that “generates over $8 billion in economic impact for the state of Washington and supports almost 70,000 jobs,” per the Washington State Tree Fruit Association. Some 1,200 commercial apple growers in the Evergreen State produce about 70% of the country’s apples — and 4% of the world’s crop.
 
The industry has grown steadily in the last decade. We lead the nation in fresh apple production. And yet, Washington farmers are nervous.

And it’s all our fault.

Yes, us. Apple eaters are fickle, always reaching for the latest and greatest fruit.

Apple production, as with many commodity crops, follows the trends and tastes of consumers. A little over 25 years ago, Red Delicious was Washington’s top variety of apple — a perfect fruit for farmers, it was standardized in size and flavor, an easy grower in our climate; it’s an apple that transports and stores beautifully.

Today, the classic, giant, deep-red apple makes up around 12% of the state’s annual harvest — and we export the bulk of them, because American consumers have fallen for different apples.

“Once you standardize something, people miss novelty,” says Jon Devaney, president of the tree fruit association.

Consumer tastes and expectations have veered away from the creamy softness of the Red and Golden Delicious varieties. The Honeycrisp entered the market decades ago, as people sought a juicier, more crisp and tart apple. The Minnesota invention was formally introduced in 1991 — and now Honeycrisp is a perennial fan favorite among apple lovers.

They made up 15% of this year’s Washington crop, tied for our state’s second most-produced apple.

But Honeycrisps are a real problem child for Washington growers. (...)

At the beginning of the 2025 apple harvest, Thornton posted a TikTok with her dad, Geoff, bemoaning that popular, sweet, tart apple, saying he “hated Honeycrisp.”

“They’re like the mean girl at a dance,” Geoff said of Honeycrisp apples in the video, which has been viewed nearly 2 million times.

Honeycrisp is second to Galas, Washington’s No. 1 apple at 18% of total production, and is tied with Granny Smith for No. 2, followed by Red Delicious, Cosmic Crisp, Fuji and Cripps Pink. (...)

Geoff has seen many things change in his time farming. He knows that apple varietals rise and fall in popularity as consumer tastes change. But he’s going public with a plea for apple lovers this year. Eat something other than Honeycrisp. Please.

“We wanted an apple that would increase consumption,” Geoff said, “and bless Honeycrisp’s heart, because it did that. The nation fell in love with Honeycrisp. But it’s really hard to grow. It gives you the promise of reward, but then you try too hard and you’re bitterly disappointed.”

He said it’s one of the most high-maintenance apples out there.

“They’re always like, ‘What can you do for me?’” Geoff said. “A little extra nutrient spray, special water irrigation program; we’ll have a lot one year and we won’t have any the next.”

All apples for the fresh market are picked by hand, but the skin on a Honeycrisp is thin, meaning each stem must also be clipped by hand just after picking, so they don’t poke holes in other apples in a bin. They’re also prone to calcium deficiency, leading to spots, a bitter pit and mold.

These apples thrive in spots like Minnesota and Michigan, where they were developed, so you might say that farmers have been fighting an uphill battle since the beginning.

“A really good Honeycrisp crop would be packing 60%, throwing away 40%,” Geoff said. “Cosmic Crisp, you might pack 85 or even 90%. It’s really a much more grower-friendly apple variety.”

Now, throwing away doesn’t mean 40% of Honeycrisp apples are left on the orchard floor. Those apples are sold to a secondary market for juice, puree or cider. (...)

Geoff saw the writing on the wall with Honeycrisp a few years ago. He has made changes, investing in other apple varieties that are still up and coming, like the SugarBee apple and Cosmic Crisp. Those varieties also have the distinction of being Washington-produced, meaning they’re naturally better suited for the Tonasket climate.

“I’m putting my last gasps of money into new varieties, the Happi Pear, and the best apple I’ve ever raised in my 39-year career: the SugarBee,” Geoff said.

Devaney of the tree fruit association knows it’s all a gamble.

“You can spend upwards of $70,000 per acre putting in the trees, setting up a trellis, irrigation, waiting three to five years, and then when you’re selling that fruit, consumers eat it and like it,” he said. “Multiply by a couple hundred acres, it’s easy to bet the farm on a variety.”

by Jackie Varriano, Seattle Times |  Read more:
Image: Kevin Clark/The Seattle Times
[ed. Not a big apple eater, but I do like a good Cosmic Crisp. Read the comments section for more diverse and passionate opinions. See also: Yakima Valley drought forces WA farmers to rip out apple trees (ST).]

Thursday, November 13, 2025

Have You Heard the Good News?

A quick look at some recent headlines shows that we have problems. The nation sharply and angrily divided along political lines. Rioters in the streets of Los Angeles. A destructive trade war. Debt and deficits at unsustainable levels.

Those are real and serious problems (and not close to an exhaustive list). But the tenor of the public debate—from elected officials to pundits, journalists to public intellectuals—implies that we are living in something approaching the apocalypse. To them, the game is rigged, the system is broken, everything is awful, and life was better decades ago.

That’s mostly bullshit.

Yes, we have real problems. But widen the aperture, and you’ll see that there has never been a better time to be alive than the present day.

If that doesn’t sound like what you’re reading in the newspaper, remember that the news business relies on outraging you.

How many viral social media posts essentially say “all is pretty, pretty good, so let’s just move along”? Of course, just saying “pretty, pretty good” quotes a man who thinks dinner with Hitler and dinner with Trump are six of one half, a sieg heil of another. That kind of poor reality testing is kind of the theme of this essay.

The incentives of the press fuel the narrative of despair and doom. So do the incentives facing politicians, who don’t get gigs by telling you: “Things are mostly okay, but hey, there are some things we really need to work on.”

All of this doomsaying feeds into the populist moment we are living in. And it comes from both sides.

Horseshoe theory is the idea that the far left and the far right converge toward each other, even if they’d both vigorously deny it. Populism, as practiced by both the left and right ends of the horseshoe, has never just been about telling people popular things, such as “ice cream is delicious.” Rather, it’s telling people: “Ice cream is delicious, and you aren’t getting your fair share of the ice cream because you are a helpless victim living in a rigged ice-cream system, and here are the people responsible that we will take to task for you, and by doing so restore your rightful ice cream.”

That was more or less the sales pitch of the populist of the moment: socialist Zohran Mamdani, who clinched the Democratic nomination in the New York City mayor’s race by arguing the city needed revolutionary change. And, with some names changed, it’s a huge part of the MAGA pitch, too.

Populism pits “the people” against “the elites.” It requires the finger-point and the class conflict. And it requires things to be very bad, or else there’s not much for the populist leader to fix.

It is also about zero-sum grievance. It’s about telling people they are getting the shaft and our side is the one to unshaft you, extracting vengeance for you along the way. It’s inherently anti-republican (small r), replacing constitutional, individual, and minority protections and rights with the will of the 51 percent (often fewer are needed) who you can convince about your “populist” revanchist policies that will undo all real or imagined past wrongs done to them.

Now, there is nothing wrong with a good grievance—that is, if the grievance is justified and the solution to the grievance reasonable. The left can justifiably point to Americans without health insurance. The right can justifiably point to a border that was consciously left open for many years. Examples abound.

But today, both the progressive left and the MAGA right seem to run on imaginary—or at best, horribly exaggerated—grievance. The uniting theme is that the average American has it terrible these days, and only their chosen end of the horseshoe can fix it. People will go to extremes only when they are convinced things are terrible—and there’s a cottage industry, again both press and politicians, working on selling that story.

The left blames rich people and corporations. (We have to redistribute your ice cream from them back to you.) The right blames free trade, immigrants —including legal ones, who came here just to take your ice cream—and, uh, also rich people and corporations. Actually, the populist, progressive left and the populist, MAGA right agree on a lot (straight from the horseshoe’s mouth). Both are hostile to big business, tech companies (with the exception of crypto for MAGA, at least for now), fiscal responsibility and entitlement reform, global supply chains, experts, free trade, taxing tipped income, non-organized labor, and free markets. At the extremes, they both scapegoat Jews, the far right often using placeholder words like globalist, the far left preferring words like Zionist, though increasingly just going to full-on Jew-blaming (stay classy, James).

Both ends of the horseshoe advocate intrusive, autocratic socialistic government, either de facto (the MAGA right who won’t use the word socialist but nonetheless push for more government control of the economy) or de jure (the progressive left, definitely including Mamdani, often will use the s-word, usually but not always prefaced with the adjective democratic)—such unchecked state power being the necessary tool to fix what is broken and even the score.

There has never been a better time and place to be alive than in the United States today.

The thing that unites them is their claim that the average American is living through a catastrophe that only they can fix. Despite the popularity of this view, it just isn’t true. But, sadly, telling people they’re being screwed by some remote “other” seems to be a winning strategy—at least for a while.

Put simply, it’s just the opposite. We are living in the best world ever for the most people ever. Lots of things are bad; lots of things can be made better. “Best world ever” does not mean “perfect world.” But if the progressive left tells you the 1950s were better, as labor unions were stronger and tax rates were over 90 percent, and the MAGA right tells you the 1950s were better, as labor unions were stronger and Harriet was still a tradwife to Ozzie, both are just wrong.

Our politics today would look a lot different and a lot better if we started from the undeniable reality of today’s extreme broad-based prosperity and human flourishing—and then tried to make it even broader and even better.

So let’s start with the facts:

There has never been a better time and place to be alive than in the United States today. We will focus on economics below, as that is our expertise, and easily the single biggest category of populist grievance.

by Clifford S. Asness and Michael R. Strain, Free Press |  Read more:
Image: Ernst Haas/Hulton Archive/Getty Images
[ed. Just a reminder, interesting and informed perspectives are always welcomed here whether we agree with them or not.]

Wednesday, November 12, 2025

The Penny Dies at 232

The American penny died on Wednesday in Philadelphia. It was 232.

The cause was irrelevance and expensiveness, the Treasury Department said.

Nothing could be bought any more with a penny, not even penny candy. Moreover, the cost to mint the penny had risen to more than 3 cents, a financial absurdity that doomed the coin.

The final pennies were minted on Wednesday afternoon in Philadelphia. Top Treasury officials were on hand for its final journey. No last words were recorded

In its heyday, the penny had immense cultural impact. It was the going rate for thoughts. It was a symbol of frugality, saved and/or earned. It could sometimes be pretty and other times arrive from heaven. And how many ideas would never have come to light without a penny dropping?

When picked up, it was said to bring good luck for a 24-hour period, an assertion commonly made, but one that was never proven by any scientific double-blind studies.

On the darker side, a penny could undoubtedly be bad, especially when turning up. (...)

The American penny was born in 1793 in Philadelphia. Its parent was Alexander Hamilton, the first secretary of the Treasury, who was the chief author of the Coinage Act, which birthed the penny and its siblings.

The penny went through several reinventions. At birth, it depicted Lady Liberty. In 1909, Abraham Lincoln took over the front for the rest of its life.

The reverse of the coin was where it showed more variety, with a 15-link chain, a wreath, wheat stalks and the Lincoln Memorial all getting moments. In 2009, the variations increased, with a log cabin and other designs. Most recently it depicted a Union shield.

The penny was at first strictly a copper coin. In 1943, because of hunger for copper for the war effort, it changed for a year into zinc-coated steel. Starting in 1982, and until its death, the penny, so associated with its copper color, was in fact 97.5 percent zinc and merely 2.5 percent copper plating.

As the penny entered its long decline, it more and more frequently found itself casually tossed into a jar in someone’s home or ignominiously dropped in a “Take a Penny” tray at retailers. Calls grew for it to be euthanized, citing its obsolescence. In the end, President Trump signed its death warrant in February.

Even after death, the penny will not vanish for a while longer. There are some 250 billion pennies in circulation and they will be out there, gathering dust, or maybe, very, very rarely, being used to help pay for something. As the last pennies slowly disappear, businesses will have no choice but to round transactions to the nearest nickel when dealing with cash.

With the penny’s demise, coin enthusiasts’ worried eyes now turn toward its longtime associate, the nickel. Its purchasing power has also shrunk to nearly nothing, and it costs more than a dime to make.

by Victor Mather, NY Times |  Read more:
Image: Tony Cenicola/The New York Times

Monday, November 10, 2025

Most Expensive Coffee in the World

via:
[ed. Bat Poop Coffee? See also: World's most expensive coffee goes on sale in Dubai at $1,000 a cup. Selling for nearly $1,000 a cup, a cafe in Dubai is offering the world's most expensive coffee, brewed from Panamanian beans sold at a premium price. via.]

Tuesday, November 4, 2025

SNAP 2025

Starving People Over Politics

I do want to take some time today to talk about the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, formerly known as food stamps), because over the weekend the Trump administration essentially decided to turn the program off.

During an appropriations lapse, most of the government’s discretionary programs shut down, but programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid that are funded on an ongoing basis rather than through annual appropriations continue.

SNAP is one such program, which is why it wasn’t impacted when appropriations originally lapsed. However, administering the program requires a modest amount of spending over and above the expenditure on the benefits, and the appropriations for that administration ran out at the end of October.

The White House could — but chose not to — tap an emergency fund that exists to keep the program running.

There’s going to be litigation as to whether Trump truly has discretion here or is just breaking the law. But SNAP benefits won’t be paid this month unless judges intervene. And while the non-payment is in a sense because of the shutdown, it was not a forced move. The White House believes that cutting off SNAP payments will increase pressure on Democrats to cave, because they believe that Democrats care a lot about the safety net and the lives of poor people.

An interesting quirk of American politics is that lower-income states tend to be more conservative so, in a sense, the economic hit of sharply curtailed low-end consumption falls harder on red America. (...)

So the politics of firing this gun may not play out exactly how Republicans hope.

That said, what I actually want to talk about today is the substance of SNAP. It’s hard, journalistically, to cover static facts about the world, but SNAP is a big important program that makes a real difference in people’s lives. Trump shutting it down is a good time to talk about that, and also a good time to mention GiveDirectly’s program where you can give money to Americans directly impacted by this situation.

SNAP is a really big deal

SNAP is a large program, but most people don’t think about it very much, to the extent that one of the most common reactions I saw to news of looming cuts was incredulity that nearly 12 percent of the population could really be receiving food assistance benefits. And a lot of that spiraled into conspiratorial thinking about massive underestimates of the immigrant population or benefits fraud.

But the poverty rate in the United States is either 10.6 or 12.9 percent, depending on which measure you use, so the scale of food assistance shouldn’t be surprising. And the demographics of SNAP are similar to other American anti-poverty programs: the biggest groups of enrollees are children, the elderly, and the disabled, and the program skews significantly toward single mothers and their kids rather than two-parent households.

In general, I think people tend to underrate both the fact that the United States is a very rich country — not just in the sense of billionaires or the top 1 percent, but that our median living standards are much higher than in Europe or Asia — and also that it’s a really hard place to be poor. The prosperity of the country tends to make things a little expensive here, because you’re either hiring the labor of residents of a rich country or bidding against the residents of a rich country for scarce goods.

If you look at living standards in the poorest 10 percent of the population, the bottom decile of Americans is doing worse than the bottom decile of Canadians or Australians or residents of northern Europe.


Reasonable people can disagree as to what to make of that, but it’s one of the most important structural facts of American life.

Somewhat flexible help for the poor

On average, SNAP recipients receive $187 per month, but poorer families get more and less-poor ones get less. It’s not a particularly generous program. But relative to the rest of the American safety net, it’s a flexible program in that it takes a fairly expansive view of what counts as groceries. When I was a kid and recipients had to bring actual food stamps to the grocery store to get their benefits, their use of the program was quite obvious to anyone behind them in the checkout line. But in the modern world, benefits are administered via an Electronic Benefits Transfer card that looks and functions like a debit card or a credit card, so it’s easy to miss — perhaps one reason people seemed to be surprised by the scope of the program.

by Matthew Yglesias, Slow Boring |  Read more:
Image: Hispanolistic
[ed. Poor people being used as political pawns again. Starting with burdensome new Medicaid application, work and reporting requirements; suspended H-2A worker programs which provided visiting workers for essential agricultural and dairy support jobs (that Americans won't do); ICE arresting anyone that looks poor and brown, and now this - just outright starving them. See also: Trump’s deportations are causing farm labor issues... with no viable, long-term solution (Investigate Midwest); and Wages of Citizenship (PW):]
***
"The Trump Administration’s crusade to transform the US immigration system has included sweeping changes to increase the state’s capacity to locate and remove noncitizen residents. The administration has empowered immigration agents to enter formerly “sensitive” spaces like schools and churches, suspended due process for legal noncitizens, and established immigration jails outside national borders. It made a deal with the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to use once off-limits tax data to locate up to seven million undocumented workers. Dramatic deportation operations are now underway across the country, with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) boasting 113,000 arrests and “north of” 100,000 deportations since Trump took office in January. The numbers include a rise in “collateral” arrests and deportations and are likely to rise after Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s (ICE) March 25 repeal of work authorization for 530,000 legal migrants of Cuba, Nicaragua, Haiti, and Venezuela, who have thirty days—until April 24—to depart before they too will be targeted for arrests and deportations.

Draconian methods were to be expected. Less clear is whether the promised crackdowns threaten the uneasy alliance between the federal government and employers in agriculture, construction, and food and hospitality industries. Despite the “war on terror” redefining the outer limits of executive power to surveil and detain foreign nationals, the workplace has over the past two decades remained largely insulated. The resilience of this arrangement reflects a clear hegemonic interest in cheap and docile labor, which allows for both lower prices and higher profits; a critical supply of health and childcare workers; a vital source of future labor; and close to $100 billion annually in state, local, and federal tax revenues. This is the perspective of US employers, expressed by the notion of “sanctuary businesses,” in which the legal segmentation of the labor market has propelled business growth."

Tuesday, October 28, 2025

Amazon Plans to Replace More Than Half a Million Jobs With Robots


Over the past two decades, no company has done more to shape the American workplace than Amazon. In its ascent to become the nation’s second-largest employer, it has hired hundreds of thousands of warehouse workers, built an army of contract drivers and pioneered using technology to hire, monitor and manage employees.

Now, interviews and a cache of internal strategy documents viewed by The New York Times reveal that Amazon executives believe the company is on the cusp of its next big workplace shift: replacing more than half a million jobs with robots.

Amazon’s U.S. work force has more than tripled since 2018 to almost 1.2 million. But Amazon’s automation team expects the company can avoid hiring more than 160,000 people in the United States it would otherwise need by 2027. That would save about 30 cents on each item that Amazon picks, packs and delivers to customers.

Executives told Amazon’s board last year that they hoped robotic automation would allow the company to continue to avoid adding to its U.S. work force in the coming years, even though they expect to sell twice as many products by 2033. That would translate to more than 600,000 people whom Amazon didn’t need to hire.

At facilities designed for superfast deliveries, Amazon is trying to create warehouses that employ few humans at all. And documents show that Amazon’s robotics team has an ultimate goal to automate 75 percent of its operations.

Amazon is so convinced this automated future is around the corner that it has started developing plans to mitigate the fallout in communities that may lose jobs. Documents show the company has considered building an image as a “good corporate citizen” through greater participation in community events such as parades and Toys for Tots.

The documents contemplate avoiding using terms like “automation” and “A.I.” when discussing robotics, and instead use terms like “advanced technology” or replace the word “robot” with “cobot,” which implies collaboration with humans. (...)

Amazon’s plans could have profound impact on blue-collar jobs throughout the country and serve as a model for other companies like Walmart, the nation’s largest private employer, and UPS. The company transformed the U.S. work force as it created a booming demand for warehousing and delivery jobs. But now, as it leads the way for automation, those roles could become more technical, higher paid and more scarce.

“Nobody else has the same incentive as Amazon to find the way to automate,” said Daron Acemoglu, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who studies automation and won the Nobel Prize in economic science last year. “Once they work out how to do this profitably, it will spread to others, too.”

If the plans pan out, “one of the biggest employers in the United States will become a net job destroyer, not a net job creator,” Mr. Acemoglu said.

The Times viewed internal Amazon documents from the past year. They included working papers that show how different parts of the company are navigating its ambitious automation effort, as well as formalized plans for the department of more than 3,000 corporate and engineering employees who largely develop the company’s robotic and automation operations. (...)

A Template for the Future

For years, Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and longtime chief executive, pushed his staff to think big and envision what it would take to fully automate its operations, according to two former senior leaders involved in the work. Amazon’s first big push into robotic automation started in 2012, when it paid $775 million to buy the robotics maker Kiva. The acquisition transformed Amazon’s operations. Workers no longer walked miles crisscrossing a warehouse. Instead, robots shaped like large hockey pucks moved towers of products to employees.

The company has since developed an orchestrated system of robotic programs that plug into each together like Legos. And it has focused on transforming the large, workhorse warehouses that pick and pack the products customers buy with a click.

Amazon opened its most advanced warehouse, a facility in Shreveport, La., last year as a template for future robotic fulfillment centers. Once an item there is in a package, a human barely touches it again. The company uses a thousand robots in Shreveport, allowing it to employ a quarter fewer workers last year than it would have without automation, documents show. Next year, as more robots are introduced, it expects to employ about half as many workers there as it would without automation.

“With this major milestone now in sight, we are confident in our ability to flatten Amazon’s hiring curve over the next 10 years,” the robotics team wrote in its strategy plan for 2025.

Amazon plans to copy the Shreveport design in about 40 facilities by the end of 2027, starting with a massive warehouse that just opened in Virginia Beach. And it has begun overhauling old facilities, including one in Stone Mountain near Atlanta.

That facility currently has roughly 4,000 workers. But once the robotic systems are installed, it is projected to process 10 percent more items but need as many as 1,200 fewer employees, according to an internal analysis. Amazon said the final head count was subject to change. (...)

Amazon has said it has a million robots at work around the globe, and it believes the humans who take care of them will be the jobs of the future. Both hourly workers and managers will need to know more about engineering and robotics as Amazon’s facilities operate more like advanced factories.

by Karen Weise, NY Times | Read more:
Image: Emily Kask
[ed. Everyone knew this was coming, now it's here. I expect issues like universal basic income, healthcare for all, even various forms of democratic socialism (which I support) getting more attention soon. See also: What Amazon’s 14,000 job cuts say about a new era of corporate downsizing (WaPo via Seattle Times); and, The AI job cuts are here - or are they? (BBC).]