One of the signatures of the Great Recession is the fact that we have sustained, long-term high unemployment along with a labor shortage. While unskilled blue-collar workers can't find a job, corporations like American Electric Power are struggling to find enough trained electricians, pipe-fitters, and other skilled workers.
This is not just a product of the recession, but a long-term structural issue: the "skills gap" that differentiates the fate of those workers who have acquired marketable knowledge and skills and those who have not. The unskilled can get by when the economy is good, but they can't get ahead, and when there is a prolonged period of economic malaise they find that they are expendable, and they are simply pushed out of the economy.
The fate of the unskilled laborer is only going to get worse. And while this is now primarily hitting blue-collar workers without college degrees, a different sort of "skills gap" is beginning to open up for white-collar workers. Whole classes of professionals who think of themselves as irreplaceable skilled workers--in many cases, highly skilled workers--are soon going to discover how much of what they do can be automated or outsourced. We will all be expendable soon.
It is not new to talk about the need to acquire "irreplaceable" skills. But what is not properly appreciated is the scope of the challenge this poses to people in all kinds of jobs, and the exact defining characteristic of what will make a skill "irreplaceable."
The basic rule of economics after the Industrial Revolution is: if a task can be automated, it will be. Or to put it differently, if a worker can be replaced by a machine, he will be. Call it the principle of expendability. The only thing that has changed since the first power loom is the number and nature of the tasks that can be automated. The first thing the Industrial Revolution did was to automate physical tasks. But now we are beginning to automate mental tasks, and what we are just beginning to see is the scope of the mental work that can be automatized. It is much wider than you probably think.
An awful lot of work that is usually considered to require human intelligence really doesn't. Instead, these tasks require complex memorization and pattern recognition, perceptual-level skills that can be reduced to mechanical, digitized processes and done by a machine. These include many tasks that currently fill the days of highly educated, well paid professionals.
Take doctors. A recent article by Farhad Manjoo, the technology columnist for Slate, describes how computers have begun to automate the screening of cervical cancer tests. A task that used to be done by two physicians, who could only process 90 images per day, can now be done with better results by one doctor and a machine, processing 170 images per day.
Or take lawyers. A lot of work done in the legal profession consists of asking a client a series of simple questions about his needs, using the answers to select a standard, well-established legal procedure (such as incorporation or the writing of a will), and then filling out forms by plugging in "boilerplate" language. All of which can be programmed into a database and done by computers online, as it now is by services such as Legalzoom.com.
Everywhere you look, you see the same trend. A huge volume of trading on the stock exchanges is now done by computer programs, not floor traders. Or take customer service, which might seem to require someone who can understand questions and reply with a comforting human voice. Well, meet Siri.
by Robert Tracinski, Real Clear Markets | Read more:
This is not just a product of the recession, but a long-term structural issue: the "skills gap" that differentiates the fate of those workers who have acquired marketable knowledge and skills and those who have not. The unskilled can get by when the economy is good, but they can't get ahead, and when there is a prolonged period of economic malaise they find that they are expendable, and they are simply pushed out of the economy.The fate of the unskilled laborer is only going to get worse. And while this is now primarily hitting blue-collar workers without college degrees, a different sort of "skills gap" is beginning to open up for white-collar workers. Whole classes of professionals who think of themselves as irreplaceable skilled workers--in many cases, highly skilled workers--are soon going to discover how much of what they do can be automated or outsourced. We will all be expendable soon.
It is not new to talk about the need to acquire "irreplaceable" skills. But what is not properly appreciated is the scope of the challenge this poses to people in all kinds of jobs, and the exact defining characteristic of what will make a skill "irreplaceable."
The basic rule of economics after the Industrial Revolution is: if a task can be automated, it will be. Or to put it differently, if a worker can be replaced by a machine, he will be. Call it the principle of expendability. The only thing that has changed since the first power loom is the number and nature of the tasks that can be automated. The first thing the Industrial Revolution did was to automate physical tasks. But now we are beginning to automate mental tasks, and what we are just beginning to see is the scope of the mental work that can be automatized. It is much wider than you probably think.
An awful lot of work that is usually considered to require human intelligence really doesn't. Instead, these tasks require complex memorization and pattern recognition, perceptual-level skills that can be reduced to mechanical, digitized processes and done by a machine. These include many tasks that currently fill the days of highly educated, well paid professionals.
Take doctors. A recent article by Farhad Manjoo, the technology columnist for Slate, describes how computers have begun to automate the screening of cervical cancer tests. A task that used to be done by two physicians, who could only process 90 images per day, can now be done with better results by one doctor and a machine, processing 170 images per day.
Or take lawyers. A lot of work done in the legal profession consists of asking a client a series of simple questions about his needs, using the answers to select a standard, well-established legal procedure (such as incorporation or the writing of a will), and then filling out forms by plugging in "boilerplate" language. All of which can be programmed into a database and done by computers online, as it now is by services such as Legalzoom.com.
Everywhere you look, you see the same trend. A huge volume of trading on the stock exchanges is now done by computer programs, not floor traders. Or take customer service, which might seem to require someone who can understand questions and reply with a comforting human voice. Well, meet Siri.
by Robert Tracinski, Real Clear Markets | Read more:
