We did it, America! Six and a half years after the Great Recession began, and five years after it ended, we have now regained all the jobs lost during the downturn. Huzzah!
O.K., maybe not.
At the previous high, in January 2008, American employers had 138.365 million jobs. With a solid 217,000 positions added in May 2014, that number has now reached a new high of 138.463 million. Yet we can all agree that, if throwing a ticker-tape parade for the economy was a thing that happened, we wouldn’t be doing it. The reasons tell something important about the economic calamity the nation has been through and why public opinion polls show such continued discontent among ordinary Americans.
The May jobs numbers released Friday morning were quite solid, and fit with both analysts’ forecasts and the general tenor of recent data — not just the 217,000 payroll jobs added, but an unemployment rate unchanged at 6.3 percent and hourly wage gains of 0.2 percent for private-sector employees
But a bit of simple math shows why, even after a progression of solid months of jobs data like May, things don’t feel so great.
Yes, the number of jobs on United States employers’ payrolls has risen back to its pre-recession levels. But in the six and a half years that have passed, the nation’s population has risen a good deal; the civilian noninstitutional population has risen since January 2008, to 247.4 million from 232.6 million. So we now have about the same number of jobs as we did then, but about 15 million more people who might wish to hold them.
And consider wages. The average private-sector worker took home $838.70 a week in April. In January 2008, if you use April 2014 dollars, that was $818.31. In other words, in the last six and a half years, the average private-sector American worker has seen a total inflation-adjusted pay increase of only 2.5 percent, a lousy $20 a week.
O.K., maybe not.
At the previous high, in January 2008, American employers had 138.365 million jobs. With a solid 217,000 positions added in May 2014, that number has now reached a new high of 138.463 million. Yet we can all agree that, if throwing a ticker-tape parade for the economy was a thing that happened, we wouldn’t be doing it. The reasons tell something important about the economic calamity the nation has been through and why public opinion polls show such continued discontent among ordinary Americans.
The May jobs numbers released Friday morning were quite solid, and fit with both analysts’ forecasts and the general tenor of recent data — not just the 217,000 payroll jobs added, but an unemployment rate unchanged at 6.3 percent and hourly wage gains of 0.2 percent for private-sector employees
But a bit of simple math shows why, even after a progression of solid months of jobs data like May, things don’t feel so great.
Yes, the number of jobs on United States employers’ payrolls has risen back to its pre-recession levels. But in the six and a half years that have passed, the nation’s population has risen a good deal; the civilian noninstitutional population has risen since January 2008, to 247.4 million from 232.6 million. So we now have about the same number of jobs as we did then, but about 15 million more people who might wish to hold them.
And consider wages. The average private-sector worker took home $838.70 a week in April. In January 2008, if you use April 2014 dollars, that was $818.31. In other words, in the last six and a half years, the average private-sector American worker has seen a total inflation-adjusted pay increase of only 2.5 percent, a lousy $20 a week.
And some sectors have come back more strongly than others. Spend some time with this immersive graphic from Jeremy Ashkenas and Alicia Parlapiano to understand how the recession and recovery have played out across hundreds of industries. (Hint: Oil and gas-related professions and nail parlors have done quite well; home construction-related areas haven’t).
The question is not whether the economy is in as good a shape today as it was back in January 2008, when total American payrolls were last at this level; it quite clearly isn’t. Rather, this milestone of surpassing the previous employment high is a good occasion to ask how much further we have to go to get to that position of true health.
The question is not whether the economy is in as good a shape today as it was back in January 2008, when total American payrolls were last at this level; it quite clearly isn’t. Rather, this milestone of surpassing the previous employment high is a good occasion to ask how much further we have to go to get to that position of true health.
by Neil Irwin, NY Times | Read more:
