Saturday, September 19, 2015

Hello Elo

[ed. Plug your favorite team into Elo's calculator here.]

A good deal of FiveThirtyEight’s NFL coverage last season used Elo ratings, a simple system that estimates each team’s skill level using only the final scores and locations of each game. For 2015, we’re not only bringing Elo back (with a few small tweaks — more on those in a moment), but we’ve also built a continually updating Elo NFL predictions page that allows you to see the latest rankings, plus win probabilities and point spreads for the current week of NFL games.

Check out win and loss projections and playoff odds for all 32 NFL teams.

How do our Elo work? FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver wrote a detailed FAQ about the formula before the 2014 season, and almost all of it still applies.

by Neil Paine, FiveThirtyEight |  Read more:
Image: Timothy A. Clary