What Machine Learning Researchers Think About AI in 2022

What do ML researchers think about AI in 2022? (AI Impacts)

Image: gamma distribution of HLMI over time (AI Impacts)
[ed. See also: Katja Grace on Slowing Down AI, AI Expert Surveys And Estimating AI Risk (Less Wrong); Common Misconceptions About OpenAI (Less/Wrong); and, The current and future state of AI/ML is shockingly demoralizing with little hope of redemption (Reddit).]

HLMI (definition/preface to survey): "high-level machine intelligence’ when unaided machines can accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers. Ignore aspects of tasks for which being a human is intrinsically advantageous, e.g. being accepted as a jury member. Think feasibility, not adoption."