Preparing for Putin's Long War

After failing in his initial goal of quickly taking Kyiv, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be placing his new bet on winning a war of attrition, experts say.

The big picture: It's a wager that's unlikely to bring an end to the war anytime soon. Instead, it's expected to significantly add to the tens of thousands killed, millions displaced and billions spent in the war's first year.

State of play: "The word that describes where we're at [right now] is 'stalemate,'" says Dale Buckner, a retired Army Colonel and the current CEO of the international security firm Global Guardian.

• "Since last fall, when the Ukrainians' counterattacked and took large swaths of terrain back," neither side has "had a large or real tactical victory," Buckner tells Axios. "Everybody's bunkered down in relatively defensive positions."

• Still, with the help of private mercenaries, Russia has seen some — albeit small — success in the eastern Donbas region this winter. Russia's focus currently appears to remain on Bakhmut, where a monthslong brutal fight has resembled a "battle of attrition" with heavy losses on both sides, Buckner says.

• If captured, Bakhmut would represent a symbolic victory and could foreshadow what a larger war of attrition may look like in the months to come.

The big question: What might Russia's expected spring offensive look like and will the Ukrainians have the weaponry to mount a strong counteroffensive?Some, including NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, say Russia's offensive has already begun. If that is the case, there are already signs it isn't going well.

Inside Russia, Putin has for months been preparing Russians for what he admits will be "a long process."

by Laurin-Whitney Gottbrath, Axios | Read more:
Image: Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project; Map: Axios Visuals