And, don't step on a rake twice.
First, not much has been said in major media about the timing of Kim’s visit. He is arriving in Vladivostok on the second day of the three-day Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok. He will not be taking part in that event, to be sure, but all of the Russian government and business leaders with whom his delegation should meet to discuss a comprehensive deepening of relations are on the spot in Vladivostok. The very wording with which Press Secretary Peskov described arrangements for the visit is a tip-off: he said that Putin and Kim will have one-on-one talks “if necessary.” This summit event is thus very different from the Trump-Kim meetings of several years ago which were focused on a very few issues and were held with no one but translators present. Moreover, though the talks may be behind closed doors, the Russian-North Korean negotiations are not surreptitious; they are going on under the noses of global media.
The second question given me by the program host from WION was what does this meeting mean for the West given that the accent is likely to be on arms sales.
Allow me to quote a relevant interpretation of the meeting’s sense by today’s online New York Times:
Instead, I believe the Russians are seeking the aforementioned military materiel from North Korea to add to their weapons inventory in preparation for a direct war with NATO if that comes. In such eventuality this materiel can be of crucial importance. In the meantime, conclusion of agreements for supply from North Korea allows the Russians to be more liberal in their deployment of their own top-of-the-line hardware as they shift in coming weeks from defense to offensive operations on the ground in Ukraine. By way of example, I note that Russian use of their Iskander hypersonic missiles in Ukraine thus far has been very sparing. But most recent news suggests that Russia is placing large numbers of Iskander in the field for use when it goes on the offensive. These missiles cannot be produced in great numbers quickly. Therefore, it will be very handy for Russia to have a back-up in the form of Korean medium range missiles. (...)
Update: Post-meeting
As for the meeting with Putin, Russian news carried video images of the exchange of toasts by the heads of state during a festive banquet that preceded the departure. We were told that all-in-all the two sides met for two hours of talks with all key officials present and for an additional hour of tête-à-tête talks between Kim and Putin.
What could they possibly achieve in this brief get-together, you may ask? However, that would be to miss the point highlighted by Russian commentators on state television, namely that over the past year the number of staff at the Russian embassy in Pyongyang more than doubled and was filled with experts who surely were preparing all the agreements which were officially signed during the visit.
Why was the meeting held in the Vostochny space launch complex, or cosmodrome? Firstly, because such a visit was a mirror image of what Russian Defense Minister Shoigu was shown in Korea during his visit there this spring – the Koreans’ latest achievements in missile technology.
The Russians are immensely proud of the Vostochny site which has been replacing their main launch site at Baikonur from Soviet days. Baikonur is in Kazakhstan. Vostochny is on Russian land. At Vostochny they can show off their state of the art military and civilian space technologies. This addresses the known Korean pursuit of assistance in launching military spy satellites, where so far they have failed on their own. More broadly, it underlines the fact that cooperation in the “military technical” sphere is the driving force of Russian-Korean partnership.
The term “military technical” entered the vocabulary of Russia observers at the start of the Special Military Operation when it was used by Defense Minister Shoigu to describe what the Russians would be deploying to vanquish the Ukrainians and their Western backers. At the time, nearly all Western pundits were scratching their heads over the term.
Now we know better. “Military-technical” puts the accent on military hardware as opposed to warm bodies in uniform, and Shoigu was confident that the latest Russian equipment now in serial production would prove its worth against anything that the West supplied to Kiev. Watching the videos of German Leopard tanks, British Challenger II tanks and American Bradley armored personnel carriers burning to ash after being struck by Russian artillery and the killer drone known as “Lancet,” we understand today that he was right.
“Old friends are better than new clothes.” This bit of folk wisdom was part of Vladimir Putin’s toast at the festive banquet. But are the Russian-Korean relations something more than friendship?
Image: Sputnik/Reuters via
Allow me to quote a relevant interpretation of the meeting’s sense by today’s online New York Times:
“North Korea could provide Russia with much-needed ammunition. In return North Korea is seeking food aid and some advanced technology.”The widespread assumption that Russia needs North Korean ammunition for its ongoing war in Ukraine is just plain wrong. The other type of military supply which Russia is said to seek in North Korea is medium range ballistic missiles, which some analysts say are among the best and least vulnerable to air defenses in the world. There, too, I say that the Russian interest is not to deploy such missiles in the Ukraine campaign.
Instead, I believe the Russians are seeking the aforementioned military materiel from North Korea to add to their weapons inventory in preparation for a direct war with NATO if that comes. In such eventuality this materiel can be of crucial importance. In the meantime, conclusion of agreements for supply from North Korea allows the Russians to be more liberal in their deployment of their own top-of-the-line hardware as they shift in coming weeks from defense to offensive operations on the ground in Ukraine. By way of example, I note that Russian use of their Iskander hypersonic missiles in Ukraine thus far has been very sparing. But most recent news suggests that Russia is placing large numbers of Iskander in the field for use when it goes on the offensive. These missiles cannot be produced in great numbers quickly. Therefore, it will be very handy for Russia to have a back-up in the form of Korean medium range missiles. (...)
Update: Post-meeting
As for the meeting with Putin, Russian news carried video images of the exchange of toasts by the heads of state during a festive banquet that preceded the departure. We were told that all-in-all the two sides met for two hours of talks with all key officials present and for an additional hour of tête-à-tête talks between Kim and Putin.
What could they possibly achieve in this brief get-together, you may ask? However, that would be to miss the point highlighted by Russian commentators on state television, namely that over the past year the number of staff at the Russian embassy in Pyongyang more than doubled and was filled with experts who surely were preparing all the agreements which were officially signed during the visit.
Why was the meeting held in the Vostochny space launch complex, or cosmodrome? Firstly, because such a visit was a mirror image of what Russian Defense Minister Shoigu was shown in Korea during his visit there this spring – the Koreans’ latest achievements in missile technology.
The Russians are immensely proud of the Vostochny site which has been replacing their main launch site at Baikonur from Soviet days. Baikonur is in Kazakhstan. Vostochny is on Russian land. At Vostochny they can show off their state of the art military and civilian space technologies. This addresses the known Korean pursuit of assistance in launching military spy satellites, where so far they have failed on their own. More broadly, it underlines the fact that cooperation in the “military technical” sphere is the driving force of Russian-Korean partnership.
The term “military technical” entered the vocabulary of Russia observers at the start of the Special Military Operation when it was used by Defense Minister Shoigu to describe what the Russians would be deploying to vanquish the Ukrainians and their Western backers. At the time, nearly all Western pundits were scratching their heads over the term.
Now we know better. “Military-technical” puts the accent on military hardware as opposed to warm bodies in uniform, and Shoigu was confident that the latest Russian equipment now in serial production would prove its worth against anything that the West supplied to Kiev. Watching the videos of German Leopard tanks, British Challenger II tanks and American Bradley armored personnel carriers burning to ash after being struck by Russian artillery and the killer drone known as “Lancet,” we understand today that he was right.
“Old friends are better than new clothes.” This bit of folk wisdom was part of Vladimir Putin’s toast at the festive banquet. But are the Russian-Korean relations something more than friendship?
[ed. See also: Vladimir Putin: The Early Years (BTW).]
