The consensus among label executives is that the last pop artist to break big was Olivia Rodrigo, who had four top 10 Billboard Hot 100 hits during 2021 and debuted at No. 1 on the chart with “Vampire” in July 2023. It’s a track record, they say, that today makes her seem like a unicorn.
“There is a need and a desire for new artists that have real substance — artists that are more than just a song, that we can really lean into, buy concert tickets, buy [merchandise],” says J. Erving, a manager and founder of the artist services and distribution company Human Re Sources.
“Each person I talk to in the industry is more depressed [about this] than the person I talked to before them,” says another manager. (...)
Genrewise, country is buzzing, and Pluma is at the forefront of a regional Mexican boom. “There are artists breaking. It’s just that they’re in different genres, not typical pop,” one major-label A&R executive says. Pop’s current genre share dropped from 12.87% at the start of the year to 10.69% at the mid-point, according to Luminate.
Still, many music executives remain worried about stagnation beyond a single musical style. They scan the landscape and see “moments,” as one put it, that can fade, rather than genuine breakthroughs that endure. “A lot of people have this bleak mindset,” a second major-label A&R executive says. Even pop radio is seeing “historic lows” in consensus hits, according to radio veteran Guy Zapoleon, which has led to “a bear market for new music.” (...)
Some blame the meager number of big breakthroughs on label decisions. According to the first A&R executive, “Labels signed more and signed worse than ever before in the decade-plus I’ve been at a major.”
Some cite the precipitous decline of mass media like radio and the maddening unpredictability of TikTok. And some attribute the feeling of industry inertia to the exhausting intensity of competing for attention in a world where gamers and influencers wield as much clout as music artists, if not more.
“Every issue that we’re facing right now comes down to oversaturation,” Bourne says. “People are just buried in content.”
“You know when you go camping and someone pulls out a guitar, and you’re like, ‘Oh, my God. Can you please stop?’ ” grouses a third A&R. “That guy is on [digital service providers] now.”
In addition to those factors, executives say, a hit doesn’t mean what it used to. It’s common to hear grumbles about young acts who have hundreds of millions of plays of a single but can’t fill a small room for a live performance. “It’s easier [today] for folks to be passive fans,” Erving says. “For you to consider yourself really broken, people need to care about you beyond the song. Where is the connectivity? Are people really dialed in in a deeper way?”
As a result of these shifts, some executives argue that the industry needs to change the way it thinks about breaking artists. As one A&R executive puts it: “Maybe there aren’t as many players slugging home runs, but there are more producing a steady stream of singles and doubles.”
by Elias Leight, Billboard | Read more:
Image: Kyle Ellingson
Image: Kyle Ellingson
