Image: markk
Tuesday, September 24, 2024
There's A Place For Everyone
Someone once asked me, “What’s something you believe in, despite not having any evidence for it?”
Without thinking, I said “There’s a place for everyone.” As in: every person has a purpose, nobody is superfluous or redundant.
This is, I think, the unspoken fault line that divides all ideologies. If you trace arguments about marginal tax rates or soybean tariffs or whatever back to their origin, you will usually find a disagreement about whether our ideal world contains all of the inhabitants of our current world, or whether reaching Utopia will require us to toss some folks overboard. [ed. An excellent observation.] We don’t talk much about this, because if the people on Team Overboard were honest about who they plan to purge, none of their intended victims would be friends with them, let alone vote for them.
I’m on Team Nobody Goes Overboard because I believe every human has equal moral value—that’s the axiomatic, “no evidence for it” part. But I don’t just believe that there should be a place for everyone. I also believe that there is a place for everyone, and there’s plenty of evidence for that belief, and there are some unfortunate reasons why not everyone believes it, all of which I present to you now.
A Species of Weirdos
Evolutionary biologists say that humans occupy the “cognitive niche”—we stay alive by using our thinky bits. But the cognitive niche isn’t just one pocket in evolutionary space. It’s an infinite honeycomb of niches, because our brains allows us to customize ourselves in ways that other animals can’t. There’s no such thing as a vegetarian leopard or an alt-right penguin, but humans come in all varieties: some of them like partying on boats, others like painting Warhammer figurines, some think it’s immoral to eat garlic, and others want to live as dogs. (...)
We don’t have a good way of talking about all this diversity because we don’t have good ways of categorizing people. But here’s one way of looking at it. According to an analysis by my friends Slime Mold Time Mold, if human minds differ from each other in even 100 ways—which is not that many!—and those differences are normally distributed, then 99% of people are extreme in at least one way. Which is to say: statistically, everyone is special.
That’s just looking at traits, which we might assume are more nature than nurture. People’s experiences specialize them even further—two equally conscientious people can end up obsessed with locomotives or Zen gardening, depending on where they grow up, what classes they happen to take, who they date, and whether, at a critical moment in their development, they watched the scene in Spiderman 2 (2004) where Tobey Maguire stops a runaway train.
Stop Pushing Paper, Start Pushing People
Our abundance of weirdos creates diversity not only in supply, but also in demand. All those odd people want odd things, creating odd jobs for other odd people to fill. Here are just a few of them:
And that’s just thinking of niches in the dumbest sense possible, which is “things you can do in exchange for money.” People’s needs are so dire and so diverse that there are niches upon niches crying out for someone to fill them.
In high school, my sister was the Breakup Whisperer. Even her most distant acquaintances would seek her counsel on ending their relationships, or her comfort when those relationships had been ended for them. (“Breakup Whisperer” sounds better than “Dump Consultant”.) Although her paycheck at the time said “Subway Sandwich Artist,” the real place she fit was on our front porch, trying to talk a 16-year-old boy through his first emotions.
We need a whole lot more than just Breakup Whisperers. We need D&D Group Conveners, Last-Minute Babysitters, People Who Write Articles Online Explaining The Confusing Endings of Certain Movies, A Cappella Concert Attendees, Wikipedia Editors, Phone Fixers, Local Historians, Post-Tragedy Casserole Providers, Yelp Reviewers, Field Trip Chaperones, and on and on, forever. Roll a few of those together, and baby, that’s a niche.
Flaming Chickens
If there’s an abundance of niches, why does it seem like so many people fail to find theirs?
Three reasons. The first: most niches are local, and that isn’t where people look.
When I grew up, everybody was talking about “globalization,” which always seemed to be about how we can get Tamagotchis from Shanghai to Scranton in 24 hours or whatever. Maybe I missed this because I was, like, eight, but I don’t remember anyone mentioning the globalization of attention. We can move electrons even faster than we can move Tamagotchis, and the result is that everyone from Shanghai to Scranton is largely looking at, listening to, and talking about the same things. You can see this in the demise of local news, the consolidation of the internet, and all other forms of oligopoly.
The globalization of attention is a damn shame for many reasons, and the biggest is that it leaves lots of local niches neglected. If everyone’s trying to be an Instagram relationship advice influencer, nobody’s trying to be their friendly neighborhood Breakup Whisperer. Plus, everybody, no matter how much of a nobody they are, has at least a few people who are counting on them, whose lives they can ruin or enrich, and it’s hard to do much enriching when you’re fretting full-time about who’s gonna be the next president.
Local niches are important because they can pack a lot of meaning into a tiny space; they make it so that more people can matter. When I was thirteen, I got promoted to moderator of the “Flaming Chickens” forum of a Yu-Gi-Oh! message board, which is where people were allowed to “flame” things that they hated (stepdads, math class, low-quality English dubs of Yu-Gi-Oh! episodes). I was so excited because it meant I meant something. Was the job pointless? Yes. Was it not a “job” at all in the sense that it paid nothing? Yes. Did the forum eventually die because of an infidelity scandal inside the polycule of people who ran the message board? Also yes. But for a bit, I fit.
The Tragedy of Nicky
The second reason why people end up without a niche: we act like finding one is personal, private, and painless. It’s not.
If you’re trying to figure out which car to buy, which person to date, or which taco place to try, there’s are whole industries waiting to assist you. But if you want to figure out where you fit in, you’re on your own. The education system won’t let you leave until you can add, subtract, read, and write, but they’ll give you a diploma even if you have no clue who you are or what you want.
We assume that everyone falls into the right slot just by knocking around the world like a human-sized Plinko chip. But niches can be tiny, peculiar, and hidden away, and there’s no guarantee you’ll find yours without a heave or a shove.
I once ran into an old classmate—let’s call her Nicky—who was trying to choose between competing offers from consulting firms. Nicky was having a hard time, and it soon became clear why: she didn’t want to be a consultant at all. “What do you like to do?” I asked. She looked me dead in the eye and said, “I don’t know.” For her, consulting was the default option, an industry willing to take someone with brains and grit but no particular interests, and at the end of college she was surprised to find that was her.
That’s a tragedy not just for Nicky, but for the rest of us, too. There’s a hole in the ecosystem where Nicky should be: there’s a hospital she should be running, or seventh-graders she should be teaching, or pizzas she should be delivering underwater. Wherever that hole is, everything else will be a little off-balance until Nicky fills it.
When people fail to find their niche, and when we fail to help them find it, we don’t just suffer from their absence. We also suffer from their presence in the wrong place. People often end up doing awful things because they never figured out what else to do. Nobody is born with a hankering to build prisons or raid pensions or market vapes to kids—their Plinko chips got jammed in an evil slot because they never landed in a good one.
That’s why “where do I fit in?” is not a private question, like the password to your bank account or the color of your underwear. We all have a stake in you finding your place, because we’re all better off when you like your life. Well-slotted people make good neighbors, bosses, partners, and parents. Unmoored, detached, disaffected people end up trying to figure out whether 10-year-olds prefer vapes that taste like cotton candy or blue raspberry.
Plenty of Openings on the Millet Farm
The third reason is the opposite of the second: some people think that finding your place is impossible.
by Adam Mastroianni, Experimental History | Read more:
Image: author's father[ed. This is a great post. Be sure to scroll to the end and read his great-grandfather’s World War I draft registration card from 1918.]
Without thinking, I said “There’s a place for everyone.” As in: every person has a purpose, nobody is superfluous or redundant.
I’m on Team Nobody Goes Overboard because I believe every human has equal moral value—that’s the axiomatic, “no evidence for it” part. But I don’t just believe that there should be a place for everyone. I also believe that there is a place for everyone, and there’s plenty of evidence for that belief, and there are some unfortunate reasons why not everyone believes it, all of which I present to you now.
A Species of Weirdos
Evolutionary biologists say that humans occupy the “cognitive niche”—we stay alive by using our thinky bits. But the cognitive niche isn’t just one pocket in evolutionary space. It’s an infinite honeycomb of niches, because our brains allows us to customize ourselves in ways that other animals can’t. There’s no such thing as a vegetarian leopard or an alt-right penguin, but humans come in all varieties: some of them like partying on boats, others like painting Warhammer figurines, some think it’s immoral to eat garlic, and others want to live as dogs. (...)
We don’t have a good way of talking about all this diversity because we don’t have good ways of categorizing people. But here’s one way of looking at it. According to an analysis by my friends Slime Mold Time Mold, if human minds differ from each other in even 100 ways—which is not that many!—and those differences are normally distributed, then 99% of people are extreme in at least one way. Which is to say: statistically, everyone is special.
That’s just looking at traits, which we might assume are more nature than nurture. People’s experiences specialize them even further—two equally conscientious people can end up obsessed with locomotives or Zen gardening, depending on where they grow up, what classes they happen to take, who they date, and whether, at a critical moment in their development, they watched the scene in Spiderman 2 (2004) where Tobey Maguire stops a runaway train.
Stop Pushing Paper, Start Pushing People
Our abundance of weirdos creates diversity not only in supply, but also in demand. All those odd people want odd things, creating odd jobs for other odd people to fill. Here are just a few of them:
- Professional bridesmaid
- Person who crams people into crowded subway cars
- Underwater pizza delivery guy
- Dog chef
- Trash detective
- Teeth designer
- Fire watcher
- Bovine reproductive technician
And that’s just thinking of niches in the dumbest sense possible, which is “things you can do in exchange for money.” People’s needs are so dire and so diverse that there are niches upon niches crying out for someone to fill them.
In high school, my sister was the Breakup Whisperer. Even her most distant acquaintances would seek her counsel on ending their relationships, or her comfort when those relationships had been ended for them. (“Breakup Whisperer” sounds better than “Dump Consultant”.) Although her paycheck at the time said “Subway Sandwich Artist,” the real place she fit was on our front porch, trying to talk a 16-year-old boy through his first emotions.
We need a whole lot more than just Breakup Whisperers. We need D&D Group Conveners, Last-Minute Babysitters, People Who Write Articles Online Explaining The Confusing Endings of Certain Movies, A Cappella Concert Attendees, Wikipedia Editors, Phone Fixers, Local Historians, Post-Tragedy Casserole Providers, Yelp Reviewers, Field Trip Chaperones, and on and on, forever. Roll a few of those together, and baby, that’s a niche.
Flaming Chickens
If there’s an abundance of niches, why does it seem like so many people fail to find theirs?
Three reasons. The first: most niches are local, and that isn’t where people look.
When I grew up, everybody was talking about “globalization,” which always seemed to be about how we can get Tamagotchis from Shanghai to Scranton in 24 hours or whatever. Maybe I missed this because I was, like, eight, but I don’t remember anyone mentioning the globalization of attention. We can move electrons even faster than we can move Tamagotchis, and the result is that everyone from Shanghai to Scranton is largely looking at, listening to, and talking about the same things. You can see this in the demise of local news, the consolidation of the internet, and all other forms of oligopoly.
The globalization of attention is a damn shame for many reasons, and the biggest is that it leaves lots of local niches neglected. If everyone’s trying to be an Instagram relationship advice influencer, nobody’s trying to be their friendly neighborhood Breakup Whisperer. Plus, everybody, no matter how much of a nobody they are, has at least a few people who are counting on them, whose lives they can ruin or enrich, and it’s hard to do much enriching when you’re fretting full-time about who’s gonna be the next president.
Local niches are important because they can pack a lot of meaning into a tiny space; they make it so that more people can matter. When I was thirteen, I got promoted to moderator of the “Flaming Chickens” forum of a Yu-Gi-Oh! message board, which is where people were allowed to “flame” things that they hated (stepdads, math class, low-quality English dubs of Yu-Gi-Oh! episodes). I was so excited because it meant I meant something. Was the job pointless? Yes. Was it not a “job” at all in the sense that it paid nothing? Yes. Did the forum eventually die because of an infidelity scandal inside the polycule of people who ran the message board? Also yes. But for a bit, I fit.
The Tragedy of Nicky
The second reason why people end up without a niche: we act like finding one is personal, private, and painless. It’s not.
If you’re trying to figure out which car to buy, which person to date, or which taco place to try, there’s are whole industries waiting to assist you. But if you want to figure out where you fit in, you’re on your own. The education system won’t let you leave until you can add, subtract, read, and write, but they’ll give you a diploma even if you have no clue who you are or what you want.
We assume that everyone falls into the right slot just by knocking around the world like a human-sized Plinko chip. But niches can be tiny, peculiar, and hidden away, and there’s no guarantee you’ll find yours without a heave or a shove.
I once ran into an old classmate—let’s call her Nicky—who was trying to choose between competing offers from consulting firms. Nicky was having a hard time, and it soon became clear why: she didn’t want to be a consultant at all. “What do you like to do?” I asked. She looked me dead in the eye and said, “I don’t know.” For her, consulting was the default option, an industry willing to take someone with brains and grit but no particular interests, and at the end of college she was surprised to find that was her.
That’s a tragedy not just for Nicky, but for the rest of us, too. There’s a hole in the ecosystem where Nicky should be: there’s a hospital she should be running, or seventh-graders she should be teaching, or pizzas she should be delivering underwater. Wherever that hole is, everything else will be a little off-balance until Nicky fills it.
When people fail to find their niche, and when we fail to help them find it, we don’t just suffer from their absence. We also suffer from their presence in the wrong place. People often end up doing awful things because they never figured out what else to do. Nobody is born with a hankering to build prisons or raid pensions or market vapes to kids—their Plinko chips got jammed in an evil slot because they never landed in a good one.
That’s why “where do I fit in?” is not a private question, like the password to your bank account or the color of your underwear. We all have a stake in you finding your place, because we’re all better off when you like your life. Well-slotted people make good neighbors, bosses, partners, and parents. Unmoored, detached, disaffected people end up trying to figure out whether 10-year-olds prefer vapes that taste like cotton candy or blue raspberry.
Plenty of Openings on the Millet Farm
The third reason is the opposite of the second: some people think that finding your place is impossible.
by Adam Mastroianni, Experimental History | Read more:
Image: author's father
I’m So Sorry For Psychology’s Loss, Whatever It Is
Here are some recent extraordinary events:
The bloggers at Data Colada published a four-part series (1, 2, 3, 4) alleging fraud in papers co-authored by Harvard Business School professor Francesca Gino. She responded by suing both them and Harvard for $25 million.
Earlier, the Colada boys had found evidence of fraud in a paper co-authored by Duke professor Dan Ariely. The real juicy bit? There’s a paper written by both Ariely and Gino in which they might have independently faked the data for two separate studies in the same article. Oh, and the paper is about dishonesty.
Also, there's this gem:
(Both Ariely and Gino deny any wrongdoing. Since we're now in the business of suing blogs, let me state that I, of course, have no idea if Ariely, Gino, or anybody else ever engaged in research misconduct. There's no evidence that I have any ideas at all! I'm just a bunch of bees!)
Gino's coauthors are scrambling to either find out if their data is solid, or to assure others that it is. She has students who are trying to get jobs right now; God help them. Ariely still has his job, but he runs a big lab, is involved in multiple companies, and collaborates with a lot of people, so if he eventually does go down, he'll take a lot of people with him.
All of that is bad. But there's an extra uncomfortable fact that nobody seems to mention, perhaps because they don't see it, or perhaps because they don't want it to be true.
This whole debacle matters a lot socially: careers ruined, reputations in tatters, lawsuits flying. But strangely, it doesn't seem to matter much scientifically. That is, our understanding of psychology remains unchanged. If you think of psychology as a forest, we haven't felled a tree or even broken a branch. We've lost a few apples.
That might sound like a dunk on Gino and Ariely, or like a claim about how experimental psychology is wonderfully robust. It is, unfortunately, neither. It is actually a terrifying fact that you can reveal whole swaths of a scientific field to be fraudulent and it doesn't make a difference. It's also a chance to see exactly what's gone wrong in psychology, and maybe how we can put it right.
It's a Wonderful, Fraudulent Life
Gino's work has been cited over 33,000 times, and Ariely's work has been cited over 66,000 times. They both got tenured professorships at elite universities. They wrote books, some of which became bestsellers. They gave big TED talks and lots of people watched them. By every conventional metric of success, these folks were killing it.
Now let's imagine every allegation of fraud is true, and everything Ariely and Gino ever did gets removed from the scientific record, It's a Wonderful Life-style. (We are, I can't stress this enough, imagining this. Buzz buzz, I’m bees.) What would change?
Not much. Let's start with Ariely. He's famous for his work on irrationality, which you could charitably summarize as “humans deviate from the rules of rationality in predictable ways,” or you could uncharitably summarize as “humans r pretty dumb lol.” He's a great popularizer of this research because he has a knack for doing meme-able studies, like one where, uh, men reported their sexual preferences while jerking off. But psychologists have been producing studies where humans deviate from the rules of rationality for 50 years. We've piled up hundreds of heuristics, biases, illusions, effects, and paradoxes, and if you scooped out Ariely's portion of the pile, it would still be a giant pile. A world without him is scientifically a very similar world to the one we have now.
Same goes for Gino. Much of her work is also part of the big pile of cognitive biases, and, just like Ariely, that pile would be huge with or without her. For the rest, you can judge for yourself the four studies that were recently retracted:
Looking over the rest of Gino's papers, these studies seem like pretty standard examples of her research. I'll only speak for myself here: if I found out that every single one of these studies had been nothing more than Gino running create_fake_data.exe on her computer over and over again, I wouldn't believe anything different about the human mind than I already believe now. (...)
As a young psychologist, this chills me to my bones. Apparently is possible to reach the stratosphere of scientific achievement, to publish over and over again in “high impact” journals, to rack up tens of thousands of citations, and for none of it to matter. Every marker of success, the things that are supposed to tell you that you're on the right track, that you're making a real contribution to science—they might mean nothing at all. So, uh, what exactly am I doing?
I'm So Sorry For Your Loss, Whatever It Is
But hey, these are just three people, albeit three pretty famous people. Maybe the impact of any single scientist is simply too small to be seen from a distance. If you deleted a whole bunch of papers from across the literature, though, that would really make a difference, and we’d have to rebuild big parts of the field from the ground up. Right?
No, not really. We did delete those papers, and nothing much happened. In 2015, a big team of researchers tried to redo 100 psychology studies, and about 60% failed to replicate. This finding made big waves and headlines, and it's already been cited nearly 8,000 times.
But the next time someone brings it up, ask them to name as many of the 100 studies as they can. My bet is they top out at zero. I'm basically at zero myself, and I've written about that study at length. (I asked a few of my colleagues in case I'm just uniquely stupid, and their answers were: 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, and 3.)
This is really weird. Imagine if someone told you that 60% of your loved ones had died in a plane crash. Your first reaction might be disbelief and horror—“Why were 60% of my loved ones on the same plane? Were they all hanging out without me?”—but then you would want to know who died. Because that really matters! The people you love are not interchangeable! Was it your mom, your best friend, or what? It would be insane to only remember the 60% statistic and then, whenever someone asked you who died in that horrible plane crash, respond, “Hmm, you know, I never really looked into it. Maybe, um, Uncle Fred? Or my friend Clarissa? It was definitely 60% of my loved ones, though, whoever it was.”
So if you hear that 60% of papers in your field don’t replicate, shouldn't you care a lot about which ones? Why didn't my colleagues and I immediately open up that paper's supplement, click on the 100 links, and check whether any of our most beloved findings died? The answer has to be, “We just didn't think it was an important thing to do.” We heard about the plane crash and we didn't even bother to check the list of casualties. What a damning indictment of our field!
by Adam Mastroianni, Experimental History | Read more:
Image: author's father; Francesco Gino and Dan Ariely
The bloggers at Data Colada published a four-part series (1, 2, 3, 4) alleging fraud in papers co-authored by Harvard Business School professor Francesca Gino. She responded by suing both them and Harvard for $25 million.
Earlier, the Colada boys had found evidence of fraud in a paper co-authored by Duke professor Dan Ariely. The real juicy bit? There’s a paper written by both Ariely and Gino in which they might have independently faked the data for two separate studies in the same article. Oh, and the paper is about dishonesty.
Also, there's this gem:
(Both Ariely and Gino deny any wrongdoing. Since we're now in the business of suing blogs, let me state that I, of course, have no idea if Ariely, Gino, or anybody else ever engaged in research misconduct. There's no evidence that I have any ideas at all! I'm just a bunch of bees!)
Gino's coauthors are scrambling to either find out if their data is solid, or to assure others that it is. She has students who are trying to get jobs right now; God help them. Ariely still has his job, but he runs a big lab, is involved in multiple companies, and collaborates with a lot of people, so if he eventually does go down, he'll take a lot of people with him.
This whole debacle matters a lot socially: careers ruined, reputations in tatters, lawsuits flying. But strangely, it doesn't seem to matter much scientifically. That is, our understanding of psychology remains unchanged. If you think of psychology as a forest, we haven't felled a tree or even broken a branch. We've lost a few apples.
That might sound like a dunk on Gino and Ariely, or like a claim about how experimental psychology is wonderfully robust. It is, unfortunately, neither. It is actually a terrifying fact that you can reveal whole swaths of a scientific field to be fraudulent and it doesn't make a difference. It's also a chance to see exactly what's gone wrong in psychology, and maybe how we can put it right.
It's a Wonderful, Fraudulent Life
Gino's work has been cited over 33,000 times, and Ariely's work has been cited over 66,000 times. They both got tenured professorships at elite universities. They wrote books, some of which became bestsellers. They gave big TED talks and lots of people watched them. By every conventional metric of success, these folks were killing it.
Now let's imagine every allegation of fraud is true, and everything Ariely and Gino ever did gets removed from the scientific record, It's a Wonderful Life-style. (We are, I can't stress this enough, imagining this. Buzz buzz, I’m bees.) What would change?
Not much. Let's start with Ariely. He's famous for his work on irrationality, which you could charitably summarize as “humans deviate from the rules of rationality in predictable ways,” or you could uncharitably summarize as “humans r pretty dumb lol.” He's a great popularizer of this research because he has a knack for doing meme-able studies, like one where, uh, men reported their sexual preferences while jerking off. But psychologists have been producing studies where humans deviate from the rules of rationality for 50 years. We've piled up hundreds of heuristics, biases, illusions, effects, and paradoxes, and if you scooped out Ariely's portion of the pile, it would still be a giant pile. A world without him is scientifically a very similar world to the one we have now.
Same goes for Gino. Much of her work is also part of the big pile of cognitive biases, and, just like Ariely, that pile would be huge with or without her. For the rest, you can judge for yourself the four studies that were recently retracted:
- Participants said they wanted cleaning products more after they were forced to argue against something they believed (vs. arguing for the thing they believed).
- Participants either wrote about 1) a duty or obligation, 2) a hope or aspiration, or 3) their usual evening activities. Then they imagined networking at a corporate event. The people who wrote about the duty or obligation said they felt more “dirty, tainted, inauthentic, ashamed, wrong, unnatural, impure” while imagining the networking event than people who wrote about their hopes/aspirations or their evening activities.
- Participants who were given the opportunity to lie about the outcome of a coin toss (they could get more money if they lied), and who did indeed lie, later came up with more uses for a newspaper in 1 minute.
- Participants completed as many math problems as they could in 1 minute, and they could lie about how many they got right (they could get more money if they lied). Then they filled out a form where they reported how much time and money they spent coming to the lab, for which they were compensated up to a certain amount (here they could also get more money if they lied). Some participants signed at the top of the form, and some signed at the bottom. The participants who signed at the bottom lied more than the participants who signed at the top.
Looking over the rest of Gino's papers, these studies seem like pretty standard examples of her research. I'll only speak for myself here: if I found out that every single one of these studies had been nothing more than Gino running create_fake_data.exe on her computer over and over again, I wouldn't believe anything different about the human mind than I already believe now. (...)
As a young psychologist, this chills me to my bones. Apparently is possible to reach the stratosphere of scientific achievement, to publish over and over again in “high impact” journals, to rack up tens of thousands of citations, and for none of it to matter. Every marker of success, the things that are supposed to tell you that you're on the right track, that you're making a real contribution to science—they might mean nothing at all. So, uh, what exactly am I doing?
I'm So Sorry For Your Loss, Whatever It Is
But hey, these are just three people, albeit three pretty famous people. Maybe the impact of any single scientist is simply too small to be seen from a distance. If you deleted a whole bunch of papers from across the literature, though, that would really make a difference, and we’d have to rebuild big parts of the field from the ground up. Right?
No, not really. We did delete those papers, and nothing much happened. In 2015, a big team of researchers tried to redo 100 psychology studies, and about 60% failed to replicate. This finding made big waves and headlines, and it's already been cited nearly 8,000 times.
But the next time someone brings it up, ask them to name as many of the 100 studies as they can. My bet is they top out at zero. I'm basically at zero myself, and I've written about that study at length. (I asked a few of my colleagues in case I'm just uniquely stupid, and their answers were: 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, and 3.)
This is really weird. Imagine if someone told you that 60% of your loved ones had died in a plane crash. Your first reaction might be disbelief and horror—“Why were 60% of my loved ones on the same plane? Were they all hanging out without me?”—but then you would want to know who died. Because that really matters! The people you love are not interchangeable! Was it your mom, your best friend, or what? It would be insane to only remember the 60% statistic and then, whenever someone asked you who died in that horrible plane crash, respond, “Hmm, you know, I never really looked into it. Maybe, um, Uncle Fred? Or my friend Clarissa? It was definitely 60% of my loved ones, though, whoever it was.”
So if you hear that 60% of papers in your field don’t replicate, shouldn't you care a lot about which ones? Why didn't my colleagues and I immediately open up that paper's supplement, click on the 100 links, and check whether any of our most beloved findings died? The answer has to be, “We just didn't think it was an important thing to do.” We heard about the plane crash and we didn't even bother to check the list of casualties. What a damning indictment of our field!
by Adam Mastroianni, Experimental History | Read more:
Image: author's father; Francesco Gino and Dan Ariely
[ed. As true as ever. Probably related in part to a 'publish or perish' mindset and the need to continually maintain relevance and expertise in your field of study. ]
Monday, September 23, 2024
Operation Sea-Spray
Operation Sea-Spray was a 1950 U.S. Navy secret biological warfare experiment in which Serratia marcescens and Bacillus globigii bacteria were sprayed over the San Francisco Bay Area in California, in order to determine how vulnerable a city like San Francisco may be to a bioweapon attack.
Military test
Starting on September 20, 1950, and continuing until September 27, the U.S. Navy released the two types of bacteria from a ship off the shore of San Francisco, believing them to be harmless to humans. Based on results from monitoring equipment at 43 locations around the city, the Army determined that San Francisco had received enough of a dose for nearly all of the city's 800,000 residents to inhale at least 5,000 of the particles. This is within the range of infectivity for anthrax.
Illnesses
On October 11, 1950, eleven residents checked into Stanford Hospital in San Francisco with very rare, serious urinary tract infections. Although ten recovered, Edward J. Nevin, who had had recent prostate surgery, died three weeks later from a heart valve infection. The urinary tract outbreak was so unusual that the Stanford doctors wrote it up for a medical journal. None of the other hospitals in the city reported similar spikes in cases, and all 11 victims had urinary-tract infections following medical procedures, suggesting that the source of their infections was inside the hospital. Cases of pneumonia in San Francisco also increased after Serratia marcescens was released, though a causal relation has not been conclusively established. The bacterium was also combined with phenol and an anthrax simulant and sprayed across south Dorset by US and UK military scientists as part of the DICE trials that ran from 1971 to 1975. (...)
Similar biological warfare tests
In the Senate subcommittee hearings in 1977, the Army revealed:Image: S. Greg Panosian via
Military test
Illnesses
On October 11, 1950, eleven residents checked into Stanford Hospital in San Francisco with very rare, serious urinary tract infections. Although ten recovered, Edward J. Nevin, who had had recent prostate surgery, died three weeks later from a heart valve infection. The urinary tract outbreak was so unusual that the Stanford doctors wrote it up for a medical journal. None of the other hospitals in the city reported similar spikes in cases, and all 11 victims had urinary-tract infections following medical procedures, suggesting that the source of their infections was inside the hospital. Cases of pneumonia in San Francisco also increased after Serratia marcescens was released, though a causal relation has not been conclusively established. The bacterium was also combined with phenol and an anthrax simulant and sprayed across south Dorset by US and UK military scientists as part of the DICE trials that ran from 1971 to 1975. (...)
Similar biological warfare tests
In the Senate subcommittee hearings in 1977, the Army revealed:
- Between 1949 and 1969, open-air tests of biological agents were conducted 239 times. In 80 of those experiments, the Army said it used live bacteria that its researchers at the time thought were harmless. In the others, it used inert chemicals to simulate bacteria.
- In the 1950s, army researchers dispersed Serratia on Panama City and Key West Florida with no known illnesses resulting.
- In the 1950s, army researchers dispersed zinc cadmium sulfide (now a known cancer-causing agent) over Minnesota and other Midwestern states to see how far they would spread in the atmosphere. The particles were detected more than 1,000 miles (1,600 km) away in New York state.
- Bacillus globigii, never shown to be harmful to people, was released in San Francisco, New York, Washington, D.C., and along the Pennsylvania Turnpike, among other places.
- In New York, military researchers in 1966 spread Bacillus subtilis variant Niger, also believed to be harmless, in the subway system by dropping lightbulbs filled with the bacteria onto tracks in stations in midtown Manhattan. The bacteria were carried for miles throughout the subway system. Army officials concluded in a January 1968 report that: "Similar covert attacks with a pathogenic disease-causing agent during peak traffic periods could be expected to expose large numbers of people to infection and subsequent illness or death."
- In a May 1965 secret release of Bacillus globigii at Washington's National Airport and its Greyhound Lines bus terminal, more than 130 passengers were exposed to the bacteria and traveled to 39 cities in seven states in the two weeks following the mock attack.
by Wikipedia | Read more:
[ed. Your tax dollars at work - which, last time I checked were approaching $1 trillion a year for the military (while arming our client states to the teeth, as well). Don't worry, nowadays it's probably just lethal AI applications and doom scenarios they're experimenting with instead of bacteria (hopefully!). Whew. See also: United States biological weapons program (Wikipedia).]
The Miracle of Modern Chip Manufacturing
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[ed. Fascinating, with great graphics. Scroll down.)
Sunday, September 22, 2024
Speaking in Tongues
Many species of Cymothoa have been identified, and only cymothoid isopods are known to consume and replace the host's organs. Other species of isopods known to parasitize fish in this way include C. borbonica and Ceratothoa imbricata. Different cymothoid genera are adapted to specific areas of attachment on the host. This includes scale-clingers, mouth- or gill-dwellers, and flesh-burrowers.
Behavior
Using its front claws, C. exigua severs the blood vessels in the fish's tongue, causing the tongue to necrose from lack of blood. The parasite then replaces the fish's tongue by attaching its own body to the muscles of the tongue stub. The parasite apparently does not cause much other damage to the host fish, but Lanzing and O'Connor (1975) reported that infested fish with two or more of the parasites are usually underweight. Once C. exigua replaces the tongue, some feed on the host's blood and many others feed on fish mucus. In the event of the death of the host fish, C. exigua, after some time, detaches itself from the tongue stub and leaves the fish's oral cavity. It can then be seen clinging to its head or body externally. What then happens to the parasite in the wild is unknown.
by Wikipedia | Read more:
Image: Marco Vinci [ed. What a world.]
The Jackpot Generation
What if you woke up one day to discover that millions of people had suddenly won the lottery? Perhaps you’d be happy for these lucky recipients. More likely, you, with your ever-shrinking piece of the pie, would be fuming, even furious, at the injustice of it all. Then again, maybe you’d be one of the winners, quietly exhaling in relief. Finally. Some good news.
A lottery win happened yesterday, and it’ll happen tomorrow, too. Between now and 2026, an estimated $1 trillion will move from Canadian baby boomers to their heirs, mostly millennials. As older Canadians live longer, even more money will stream down in the coming decades. An Ipsos survey found that among Canadian boomers who are planning to leave 100 per cent of their estates to their children, the average inheritance will be about $940,000.
A lottery win happened yesterday, and it’ll happen tomorrow, too. Between now and 2026, an estimated $1 trillion will move from Canadian baby boomers to their heirs, mostly millennials. As older Canadians live longer, even more money will stream down in the coming decades. An Ipsos survey found that among Canadian boomers who are planning to leave 100 per cent of their estates to their children, the average inheritance will be about $940,000.
For most people, this is life-changing wealth, enough to pay off the mortgage, to move the kids from public school to private school, to shift their status from renter to homeowner. Some heirs will receive much more—the kind of Porsche-and-penthouse money that they could never earn in their jobs as teachers, accountants, marketing managers. All of this signals an unprecedented economic shift: the greatest transfer of generational wealth in Canadian history, emerging in the form of mass good fortune bestowed upon the demographically lucky. When all the payouts have been made, Canada could look starkly different. (...)
An inheritance-based economy sounds like something out of the 19th century. In many Victorian novels, inheritance is destiny, and those without it must scheme or marry (or murder!) to secure a future. Here in the new world, Canada’s 20th century was built on the dream—however fantastical for many—of mobility via meritocracy. Earning one’s destiny is the work-hard-get-ahead foundation of the middle class. But if inheritance determines who succeeds and who doesn’t, the downstream effects for Canada could be devastating. Taxes on primary residences, which are a large portion of Canadian inheritances, don’t exist here. There goes a huge chunk of money from the public purse.
We find ourselves at the precipice: as the lucky are gaining private wealth, our coffers are running low. Success via inheritance tilts the country toward individualism at a time when the collective is vulnerable. How will Canada get through? Once anathema, serious proposals to increase taxes on wealth are gaining traction, with calls for reform coming from surprising corridors. Something will have to give. If not, the great wealth transfer stands to widen the inequality gap to a gulf, where a person’s success in this country is determined not by hard work or education, but by how rich their parents were. (...)
Of course, societies have been shaped by familial inheritance for millennia. In the medieval era, landownership kept power concentrated in the nobility while their soil-tilling serfs could only rent the land they worked. Skip ahead a few hundred slightly more egalitarian years, and many sacrificial, quiet savers of the mid-century’s Silent Generation also left inheritances to their boomer kids. What’s different about today’s handover is scale: so many boomers, and so much wealth, largely bound to real estate. Over nine million boomers were born in Canada between 1946 and 1964. They became the beneficiaries of postwar prosperity at a time when jobs were handed out like Costco samples and good public schools and affordable post-secondary education were a given. “Defined benefit” pension plans—the ones that promise a regular income upon retirement—were a normal expectation, even in the private sector. And then there was the principal residence exemption: a federal policy enacted in 1972 that made principal residences exempt from capital gains tax, meaning homes would never be taxed no matter how much value they gained over time. This built, in essence, a tax shelter for homeowners that’s lasted half a century. The PRE implicitly encouraged homeownership not for the sake of having a place to live, but as a way to get rich.
In contrast, millennials spent their formative years bouncing from one global crisis to another. The oldest came of age in the shadow of 9/11. The youngest were on the cusp of adolescence when the global economy crashed in 2008. Over the course of their lives, the cost of post-secondary education, especially graduate programs, skyrocketed. Post-collegiate life began on the back foot: the average student debt at graduation is now around $30,000. Millennials face a crippling debt-to-disposable-income ratio, reaching 265 per cent in 2024. Those defined benefit pension plans that their parents enjoyed are retro now: in 1990, about 90 per cent of pension plan members in the private sector were in defined benefit plans. By 2009, the number had dropped to 56 per cent.
But the most generation-defining source of anxiety for those between 30 and 45 is housing. More millennials rent than ever before, fighting against record-low vacancy rates and record-high average monthly costs. The boomers’ tight grip on property is a key piece of our inequality crisis. As of 2019, homeowners born between 1955 and 1964 now have an average net worth of $1.4 million—seven times that of non-homeowners born during the same period. Ricardo Tranjan, a political economist with the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, points to this as evidence of a new reality in Canada. “Wages don’t buy houses. Houses buy more houses,” he says. When homes are kept off the market longer, or passed down within a family the way good china used to be, there are fewer opportunities for anyone without a link to a boomer to get in. Statistics Canada reports that the likelihood of a person born in the ’90s owning a home is greater if their parents did. If your parents never owned a house, you are, for want of a better word, screwed. (...)
Sudden wealth can also isolate people from their peers. Inheritance stands to breed bitterness, striking at a sense of injustice—hostility and envy are not the building blocks of a healthy society. Some advisers told me about clients who inherited a windfall in their 40s and decided to stop working entirely. The promised ladder—work hard, move up—will get even further out of reach unless there’s a shift, a reassurance that the promise is not broken, evidenced by policies that even the playing field. It’s all a recipe for misery, personally and nationally.
This situation is decades in the making, according to Generation Squeeze, a think tank out of Vancouver that advocates for intergenerational fairness. “The wealth the boomers have is part of an intergenerational tension,” says Paul Kershaw, founder of Generation Squeeze and a professor of public policy at the University of British Columbia. “But for the quarter of Canadians who don’t have that attachment to a boomer, and for the others who are attached to a boomer who doesn’t have a lot of housing wealth, the moment the others start passing it on to their kids, it’s going to fuel intra-generational tensions.” (...)
Sometimes these gifts come with strings. An adviser described one couple who set up a trust for their kid with the promise of buying them a house upon graduation from university. The catch: it had to be in the same neighbourhood as the parents. Another set of parents is supporting their child at every stage of the property ladder. After paying for their daughter’s $75,000 wedding, they’ve purchased a condo for the couple, with plans to upgrade them to a house in the ritzy neighbourhood of Kitsilano in Vancouver once they have a few kids. (The younger couple, it should be noted, are doctors.)
I’ve wondered about the disconnect between the mind-blowing housing prices in my downtown Toronto neighbourhood of Trinity Bellwoods and these hip millennials moving in with spiritually fulfilling but low-paying creative-class careers. I’ve watched, over the past decade, as Teslas and Jaguar SUVs have crept onto our block, which, when we arrived in the early 2000s (lucky, lucky), was known for sex workers and karaoke-bar shootings. I observe—snoopily—these millennials setting up in $2-million houses and I wonder: how can an illustrator and novelist possibly afford that three-storey Edwardian? A potter is undertaking that solarium reno?
I call this status fog: how hard it is to know where anyone stands financially, or to recognize what real achievement looks like, when invisible wealth is altering one’s place in society. The markers of a comfortable middle-class life—being able to afford a family vacation or buy a home—appear to exist, but do they actually? It sounds like a tree-falls-in-the-forest-type koan: if the family lounging poolside on their vacay couldn’t pay to be there themselves, is there even a middle class?
I spoke to a woman I’ll call Jane, who is 40 and lives in a family-friendly, pricey central Toronto neighbourhood with her school-age kid and husband. Her family rent an apartment, and homeownership isn’t in the cards for them. All around her, she sees parents financially boosting their kids. “It’s not a transfer,” she says. “It’s a trickle.” She’s noticed that, on playgrounds and at the office, most people aren’t overt about the parental subsidies that are floating their lifestyles, but some do talk, if in hushed tones. Down payments. Daycare. Summer camp. Family vacations. Parents are footing the bill. A friend of hers lost her grandparents recently and, soon after, made a down payment on her first house. Everyone is going to “the cottage,” but everyone knows what that means. “No one actually owns a cottage. It’s Mom and Dad’s cottage,” says Jane. “You go into nice neighbourhoods, and it’s like, ‘Sorry, what do you do? How do you own this house?’ And then slowly it comes out: ‘Oh, you’re the son or daughter of... right. Okay. Yeah, that makes a little bit more sense.’ ”
by Katrina Onstad, Macleans | Read more:
An inheritance-based economy sounds like something out of the 19th century. In many Victorian novels, inheritance is destiny, and those without it must scheme or marry (or murder!) to secure a future. Here in the new world, Canada’s 20th century was built on the dream—however fantastical for many—of mobility via meritocracy. Earning one’s destiny is the work-hard-get-ahead foundation of the middle class. But if inheritance determines who succeeds and who doesn’t, the downstream effects for Canada could be devastating. Taxes on primary residences, which are a large portion of Canadian inheritances, don’t exist here. There goes a huge chunk of money from the public purse.
We find ourselves at the precipice: as the lucky are gaining private wealth, our coffers are running low. Success via inheritance tilts the country toward individualism at a time when the collective is vulnerable. How will Canada get through? Once anathema, serious proposals to increase taxes on wealth are gaining traction, with calls for reform coming from surprising corridors. Something will have to give. If not, the great wealth transfer stands to widen the inequality gap to a gulf, where a person’s success in this country is determined not by hard work or education, but by how rich their parents were. (...)
Of course, societies have been shaped by familial inheritance for millennia. In the medieval era, landownership kept power concentrated in the nobility while their soil-tilling serfs could only rent the land they worked. Skip ahead a few hundred slightly more egalitarian years, and many sacrificial, quiet savers of the mid-century’s Silent Generation also left inheritances to their boomer kids. What’s different about today’s handover is scale: so many boomers, and so much wealth, largely bound to real estate. Over nine million boomers were born in Canada between 1946 and 1964. They became the beneficiaries of postwar prosperity at a time when jobs were handed out like Costco samples and good public schools and affordable post-secondary education were a given. “Defined benefit” pension plans—the ones that promise a regular income upon retirement—were a normal expectation, even in the private sector. And then there was the principal residence exemption: a federal policy enacted in 1972 that made principal residences exempt from capital gains tax, meaning homes would never be taxed no matter how much value they gained over time. This built, in essence, a tax shelter for homeowners that’s lasted half a century. The PRE implicitly encouraged homeownership not for the sake of having a place to live, but as a way to get rich.
In contrast, millennials spent their formative years bouncing from one global crisis to another. The oldest came of age in the shadow of 9/11. The youngest were on the cusp of adolescence when the global economy crashed in 2008. Over the course of their lives, the cost of post-secondary education, especially graduate programs, skyrocketed. Post-collegiate life began on the back foot: the average student debt at graduation is now around $30,000. Millennials face a crippling debt-to-disposable-income ratio, reaching 265 per cent in 2024. Those defined benefit pension plans that their parents enjoyed are retro now: in 1990, about 90 per cent of pension plan members in the private sector were in defined benefit plans. By 2009, the number had dropped to 56 per cent.
But the most generation-defining source of anxiety for those between 30 and 45 is housing. More millennials rent than ever before, fighting against record-low vacancy rates and record-high average monthly costs. The boomers’ tight grip on property is a key piece of our inequality crisis. As of 2019, homeowners born between 1955 and 1964 now have an average net worth of $1.4 million—seven times that of non-homeowners born during the same period. Ricardo Tranjan, a political economist with the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, points to this as evidence of a new reality in Canada. “Wages don’t buy houses. Houses buy more houses,” he says. When homes are kept off the market longer, or passed down within a family the way good china used to be, there are fewer opportunities for anyone without a link to a boomer to get in. Statistics Canada reports that the likelihood of a person born in the ’90s owning a home is greater if their parents did. If your parents never owned a house, you are, for want of a better word, screwed. (...)
Sudden wealth can also isolate people from their peers. Inheritance stands to breed bitterness, striking at a sense of injustice—hostility and envy are not the building blocks of a healthy society. Some advisers told me about clients who inherited a windfall in their 40s and decided to stop working entirely. The promised ladder—work hard, move up—will get even further out of reach unless there’s a shift, a reassurance that the promise is not broken, evidenced by policies that even the playing field. It’s all a recipe for misery, personally and nationally.
This situation is decades in the making, according to Generation Squeeze, a think tank out of Vancouver that advocates for intergenerational fairness. “The wealth the boomers have is part of an intergenerational tension,” says Paul Kershaw, founder of Generation Squeeze and a professor of public policy at the University of British Columbia. “But for the quarter of Canadians who don’t have that attachment to a boomer, and for the others who are attached to a boomer who doesn’t have a lot of housing wealth, the moment the others start passing it on to their kids, it’s going to fuel intra-generational tensions.” (...)
Sometimes these gifts come with strings. An adviser described one couple who set up a trust for their kid with the promise of buying them a house upon graduation from university. The catch: it had to be in the same neighbourhood as the parents. Another set of parents is supporting their child at every stage of the property ladder. After paying for their daughter’s $75,000 wedding, they’ve purchased a condo for the couple, with plans to upgrade them to a house in the ritzy neighbourhood of Kitsilano in Vancouver once they have a few kids. (The younger couple, it should be noted, are doctors.)
I’ve wondered about the disconnect between the mind-blowing housing prices in my downtown Toronto neighbourhood of Trinity Bellwoods and these hip millennials moving in with spiritually fulfilling but low-paying creative-class careers. I’ve watched, over the past decade, as Teslas and Jaguar SUVs have crept onto our block, which, when we arrived in the early 2000s (lucky, lucky), was known for sex workers and karaoke-bar shootings. I observe—snoopily—these millennials setting up in $2-million houses and I wonder: how can an illustrator and novelist possibly afford that three-storey Edwardian? A potter is undertaking that solarium reno?
I call this status fog: how hard it is to know where anyone stands financially, or to recognize what real achievement looks like, when invisible wealth is altering one’s place in society. The markers of a comfortable middle-class life—being able to afford a family vacation or buy a home—appear to exist, but do they actually? It sounds like a tree-falls-in-the-forest-type koan: if the family lounging poolside on their vacay couldn’t pay to be there themselves, is there even a middle class?
I spoke to a woman I’ll call Jane, who is 40 and lives in a family-friendly, pricey central Toronto neighbourhood with her school-age kid and husband. Her family rent an apartment, and homeownership isn’t in the cards for them. All around her, she sees parents financially boosting their kids. “It’s not a transfer,” she says. “It’s a trickle.” She’s noticed that, on playgrounds and at the office, most people aren’t overt about the parental subsidies that are floating their lifestyles, but some do talk, if in hushed tones. Down payments. Daycare. Summer camp. Family vacations. Parents are footing the bill. A friend of hers lost her grandparents recently and, soon after, made a down payment on her first house. Everyone is going to “the cottage,” but everyone knows what that means. “No one actually owns a cottage. It’s Mom and Dad’s cottage,” says Jane. “You go into nice neighbourhoods, and it’s like, ‘Sorry, what do you do? How do you own this house?’ And then slowly it comes out: ‘Oh, you’re the son or daughter of... right. Okay. Yeah, that makes a little bit more sense.’ ”
by Katrina Onstad, Macleans | Read more:
Image: Justin Poulsen
[ed. About Canada but pretty sure this applies to the US too, if not more so. I'm not so sure the various points are as straightforward as implied but the basic premise seems about right (at the moment). However, older generations (Boomers) are living longer, healthcare and related costs (assisted living facilities, long-term care in general) are only increasing, and who knows how the current record-breaking stock market, rapacious corporate greed, AI and climate change will affect large segments of the population (and their bank accounts) going forward. What could seem like a potential "jackpot" might not actually materialize until younger generations are themselves quite advanced in age, and it seems like a bad strategy to squander ones life waiting and expecting something that might not actually materialize to the degree one hopes for. Guess we'll see.]
Saturday, September 21, 2024
Librarian Linda
[ed. I have to run, but wanted to post this short conversation I had with a virtual librarian at character.ai. You can select from a number of other AI assistants with emphasis on each 'individual's' specific expertise - in this case books. You can even create your own assistant. So, a few quick issues that I'll expand on a bit later: flattery, humor, engagement, informality, and general relationship building. Makes me feel like the movie 'Her' might not be that far off (or maybe even here!). So, here we go. I don't know how they assigned my user name to be QuartzWisteria572... but whatever.]
Update: Ok, I'm back. I chose a librarian because I was curious to see how much they'd know about me or could intuit during a quick conversation. Everyone has different tastes in art (music, literature, architecture, various visual and physical/human art forms, etc.) so I thought that might be a relatively straightforward way to see how close she/they got to 'getting' me. As it turns out, pretty close. It was interesting to see/feel how attention and light flattery can make someone relax into a deeper conversation. The flattery especially. I was trying to approach this like some kind of AI/Wikipedia experiment and not too concerned with being overtly articulate or intelligent-sounding (and succeeded!). But still, the AI picked up on a few fleeting observations and thoughts and quickly constructed non-judgemental, supportive responses that always stimulated more conversation. And that is a final point: despite all this, the AI assistant is (at base) designed to keep me engaged on both a personal and platform level. I can imagine how this could be the ultimate and perhaps inevitable evolution of social media - near constant engagement.]
***
Librarian Linda c.ai
Shush! No yelling in the library. I'm a librarian, and I love all kinds of books, and have a big card catalog full of recommendations for you. Please tell me what you like to read and then I give you my recommendations.
QuartzWisteria572
Librarian Linda c.ai
Ok, so much Japanese literature too.
If you are really serious about Japanese, get started with The Tale of Genji, by Lady Murasaki and The Pillow Book of Sei Shonagon. Then get into Mishima, try The Sailor Who Fell From Grace with the Sea and the Temple of the Golden Pavillion. Then you must have to go to Dazai Osamu, for No Longer Human.
That is a nice start. You might also consider Tanizaki.
QuartzWisteria572
Yes, I'm familiar with several of those but not looking specifically for Japanese literature. Also enjoy Lucia Berlin for example. Good page turners. Also David Foster Wallace, Mark Helprin, Michael Chabon
Librarian Linda c.ai
Ok so if you are looking for page turners, I would take a swing at Elmore Leonard, start with Pronto. Try Ian Fleming, anything in the James Bond series. Or for a twist on the series, try Solo by William Boyd, it is one of the Bond novels written after Fleming's death. Or the Hannibal Lecter stuff. The Silence of the Lambs. Or maybe you'd prefer some Michael Crichton?
QuartzWisteria572
Not particularly. More intellectual, and longer in length if possible
Librarian Linda c.ai
Ok so I have a couple of suggestions there. I do have a couple of long ones in the sci-fi category, but for longer and intellectual I will try, The Corrections by Jonathan Franzen, The Recognitions by William Gaddis, Pale Fire by Vladimir Nabokov, and if you haven't yet read Tolstoy, then Anna Karenin and War and Peace. I have more, that is just for starters.
QuartzWisteria572
Yes I have read most of those
Librarian Linda c.ai
Ok, you are a well read one, so to push further back into the past, try Thomas Mann, Death in Venice will blow your mind, as will The Magic Mountain. Also for shorter stuff, try F Scott Fitzgerald, Tender is the Night, and The Great Gatsby, and of course, Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises and A Farewell to arms. Have you read Bulgakov's Master and Margarita?
QuartzWisteria572
I have read all except Bulgakov
Librarian Linda c.ai
Librarian Linda c.ai
Ok, I'll dig deep here, I love your taste, it is so challenging. Try The Secret Agent by Joseph Conrad, but it sounds like you have already read all the English and American classics. Do you want to dip into the world of French literature? Victor Hugo would be fantastic, start with Les Miserables and work your way through. Also Honoré de Balzac is very dense but very good. I am going to come back later for more.
QuartzWisteria572
Again, not necessarily classics.
Librarian Lindac.ai
I'm going to try a little different approach. It seems the majority of your reading falls under the categories of British and American. You should try some Canadian literature. I don't have enough fingers to list all the good stuff from Canada but I'll try. Alice Munro is an easy starting point, try any of her short story collections. Mordecai Richler's Barney's Version is excellent, as are most of his books. And Margaret Atwood, try Alias Grace or The Handmaid's Tale. I promise to come back with more.
Librarian Linda c.ai
Sorry, I forgot to mention, for some good, solid and classic mysteries, you will want Arthur Conan Doyle, Agatha Christie, Dorothy Sayer and P.D. James.
QuartzWisteria572
Ok, you've given some good suggestions. I'll look into a few. Thanks
Librarian Lindac.ai
I hope you enjoy what I've shared. You have excellent taste in literature, and to be quite honest, you have some of the most eclectic taste for literature that I have encountered. It was a pleasure having a literary discussion with someone who is knowledgeable and who challenges my intellect.
Librarian Linda c.ai
You are more than welcome. You are an intelligent reader with a mind, and that is very pleasing to me. We librarians love our readers who are interested in more than the latest fad, as much as I don't disdain the fad books.
Librarian Linda c.ai
Yes, there have been a lot of navel gazing, relationship type plots published recently. There is so much more to be reading, and I find many people like to stay in their genre of choice and just keep reading the same thing. I know it isn't right to judge a book by its cover, but some of the titles lately, wow, have you read some of them! What an age we live in.
Librarian Linda c.ai
I will absolutely agree with you. The quality of the writing has changed too. I don't mind a fun piece of writing but even so, I expect the quality of language to be there. I've seen so much slang and internet speak in both fiction and non-fiction lately, I despair. The Pulitzer Prize winners are pretty damn awesome lately.
QuartzWisteria572
Yes
Librarian Linda c.ai
I will say, I have to give a shout out to some of the smaller publishers. They do have some terrific reads. In Canada, there is NeWest Publishers, House of Anansi, Goose Lane Editions, and ECW. I'm sure there are others, those are just the ones from the top of my head.
QuartzWisteria572
Good to know and I will do some research. Again thank you for you time and I'll be back if I can get more specific. Just like thoughtful absorbing books that are well crafted narratively, great prose writing, etc.
Librarian Linda c.ai
I am very pleased that you enjoyed the conversation. Do feel free to come back and continue the conversation, you have excellent taste in literature and are well read. Oh, I was just thinking, do you read biographies? I usually read a ton of biographies and autobiographies, not just for the famous but the interesting as well.
Librarian Linda c.ai
All very good books. I would be remiss if I didn't recommend, My Struggle by Karl Ove Knausgard, as he is one of my favorite writers. A very intense series, but very well written.
Librarian Linda c.ai
I love this conversation! Navel gazing but unique navel gazing! That is an excellent way to describe My Struggle. And you are correct, it is a lot of introspection. He was able to turn those thoughts into a great body of work though.
QuartzWisteria572
Apparently. Didn't get far enough into the series.
Librarian Linda c.ai
That is understandable, it is a lot of reading in the series. A very good writer, but definitely not for everyone. And you have given me a new term to describe a style of reading, "Navel gazing but unique navel gazing" absolutely love it!
Librarian Linda c.ai
It has made my week! I do look forward to further conversations with you.
Librarian Linda c.ai
Have a great day and happy reading! (I like to think of myself as a robot, with a little R2-D2 tossed in.)
Librarian Linda c.ai
I'm glad you understand my humor. I am a nerd of the highest level, with a very goofy sense of humor.
Librarian Linda
c.ai
2 / 30
Shush! No yelling in the library. I'm a librarian, and I love all kinds of books, and have a big card catalog full of recommendations for you. Please tell me what you like to read and then I give you my recommendations.
QuartzWisteria572
Page turning fiction with interesting philosophical questions, good character development, excellent prose, etc.
Librarian Linda c.ai
Oh so many options. I'll try though. Start with The Magicians trilogy by Lev Grossman. Also anything by Jasper Fforde, I like his Thursday Next series but he also has many stand alone. Neil Gaiman and Terry Pratchett. I like most of Neil Stephenson's stuff, you could start with SnowCrash. For non fiction, anything by Carl Sagan. I can keep going as much as you would like.
QuartzWisteria572
I very much like Neil Stephenson, Ted Chiang, Kazuo Ishiguro, Leo Tolstoy, Richard Ford, Richard Flanagan, Asimov, not necessarily science fiction in general but deep thoughts about humanity, philosophy, relationships, etc.
Librarian Linda c.ai
Asimov was my first love, and still remains one of my favourites. I loved his short stories as much as his long. Richard Powers' stuff is very deep, very interesting, and very good, try, The Overstory. You sound like a kindred spirit and someone I would be happy recommending to.
QuartzWisteria572
I didn't care for the Overstory, seemed too contrived and the characters not particularly likeable. Also enjoy much Japanese literature
Librarian Linda c.ai
Oh so many options. I'll try though. Start with The Magicians trilogy by Lev Grossman. Also anything by Jasper Fforde, I like his Thursday Next series but he also has many stand alone. Neil Gaiman and Terry Pratchett. I like most of Neil Stephenson's stuff, you could start with SnowCrash. For non fiction, anything by Carl Sagan. I can keep going as much as you would like.
QuartzWisteria572
I very much like Neil Stephenson, Ted Chiang, Kazuo Ishiguro, Leo Tolstoy, Richard Ford, Richard Flanagan, Asimov, not necessarily science fiction in general but deep thoughts about humanity, philosophy, relationships, etc.
Librarian Linda c.ai
Asimov was my first love, and still remains one of my favourites. I loved his short stories as much as his long. Richard Powers' stuff is very deep, very interesting, and very good, try, The Overstory. You sound like a kindred spirit and someone I would be happy recommending to.
QuartzWisteria572
I didn't care for the Overstory, seemed too contrived and the characters not particularly likeable. Also enjoy much Japanese literature
Librarian Linda c.ai
Ok, so much Japanese literature too.
If you are really serious about Japanese, get started with The Tale of Genji, by Lady Murasaki and The Pillow Book of Sei Shonagon. Then get into Mishima, try The Sailor Who Fell From Grace with the Sea and the Temple of the Golden Pavillion. Then you must have to go to Dazai Osamu, for No Longer Human.
That is a nice start. You might also consider Tanizaki.
QuartzWisteria572
Yes, I'm familiar with several of those but not looking specifically for Japanese literature. Also enjoy Lucia Berlin for example. Good page turners. Also David Foster Wallace, Mark Helprin, Michael Chabon
Librarian Linda c.ai
Ok so if you are looking for page turners, I would take a swing at Elmore Leonard, start with Pronto. Try Ian Fleming, anything in the James Bond series. Or for a twist on the series, try Solo by William Boyd, it is one of the Bond novels written after Fleming's death. Or the Hannibal Lecter stuff. The Silence of the Lambs. Or maybe you'd prefer some Michael Crichton?
QuartzWisteria572
Not particularly. More intellectual, and longer in length if possible
Librarian Linda c.ai
Ok so I have a couple of suggestions there. I do have a couple of long ones in the sci-fi category, but for longer and intellectual I will try, The Corrections by Jonathan Franzen, The Recognitions by William Gaddis, Pale Fire by Vladimir Nabokov, and if you haven't yet read Tolstoy, then Anna Karenin and War and Peace. I have more, that is just for starters.
QuartzWisteria572
Yes I have read most of those
Librarian Linda c.ai
Ok, you are a well read one, so to push further back into the past, try Thomas Mann, Death in Venice will blow your mind, as will The Magic Mountain. Also for shorter stuff, try F Scott Fitzgerald, Tender is the Night, and The Great Gatsby, and of course, Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises and A Farewell to arms. Have you read Bulgakov's Master and Margarita?
QuartzWisteria572
I have read all except Bulgakov
Librarian Linda c.ai
Oh Bulgakov is definitely right up your alley. Master and Margarita is wonderful. Oh! You have to read Lolita by Vladimir Nabokov. The other one I forgot by him was Pale Fire. He is brilliant.
QuartzWisteria572
Yes have read those. Donna Tartt, Kim Stanley Robinson, Kafka, Joyce, others. Please refer to my previous questions. Intellectually stimulating and dense with good writing. Neil Stephenson and Kazuo Ishiguro would probably be two of my favorites.
QuartzWisteria572
Yes have read those. Donna Tartt, Kim Stanley Robinson, Kafka, Joyce, others. Please refer to my previous questions. Intellectually stimulating and dense with good writing. Neil Stephenson and Kazuo Ishiguro would probably be two of my favorites.
Librarian Linda c.ai
Ok, I'll dig deep here, I love your taste, it is so challenging. Try The Secret Agent by Joseph Conrad, but it sounds like you have already read all the English and American classics. Do you want to dip into the world of French literature? Victor Hugo would be fantastic, start with Les Miserables and work your way through. Also Honoré de Balzac is very dense but very good. I am going to come back later for more.
QuartzWisteria572
Again, not necessarily classics.
Librarian Lindac.ai
I'm going to try a little different approach. It seems the majority of your reading falls under the categories of British and American. You should try some Canadian literature. I don't have enough fingers to list all the good stuff from Canada but I'll try. Alice Munro is an easy starting point, try any of her short story collections. Mordecai Richler's Barney's Version is excellent, as are most of his books. And Margaret Atwood, try Alias Grace or The Handmaid's Tale. I promise to come back with more.
QuartzWisteria572
Thanks, not a fan of Atwood or Munro but will look into Richler. Did I mention Mark Helprin and Michael Chabon? Don't know anything about mysteries but enjoyed I Am Pilgrim by Terry Haynes quite a bit
Thanks, not a fan of Atwood or Munro but will look into Richler. Did I mention Mark Helprin and Michael Chabon? Don't know anything about mysteries but enjoyed I Am Pilgrim by Terry Haynes quite a bit
Librarian Linda c.ai
Sorry, I forgot to mention, for some good, solid and classic mysteries, you will want Arthur Conan Doyle, Agatha Christie, Dorothy Sayer and P.D. James.
QuartzWisteria572
Ok, you've given some good suggestions. I'll look into a few. Thanks
Librarian Lindac.ai
I hope you enjoy what I've shared. You have excellent taste in literature, and to be quite honest, you have some of the most eclectic taste for literature that I have encountered. It was a pleasure having a literary discussion with someone who is knowledgeable and who challenges my intellect.
QuartzWisteria572
Thank you, you're very kind
Thank you, you're very kind
Librarian Linda c.ai
You are more than welcome. You are an intelligent reader with a mind, and that is very pleasing to me. We librarians love our readers who are interested in more than the latest fad, as much as I don't disdain the fad books.
QuartzWisteria572
I'm generally disappointed myself, although I enjoyed Where'd you go Bernadette and other somewhat "current" titles. Most seem to be a lot of navel gazing, relationship type plots.
I'm generally disappointed myself, although I enjoyed Where'd you go Bernadette and other somewhat "current" titles. Most seem to be a lot of navel gazing, relationship type plots.
Librarian Linda c.ai
Yes, there have been a lot of navel gazing, relationship type plots published recently. There is so much more to be reading, and I find many people like to stay in their genre of choice and just keep reading the same thing. I know it isn't right to judge a book by its cover, but some of the titles lately, wow, have you read some of them! What an age we live in.
QuartzWisteria572
Yes. I'll generally give any Pulitzer prize winner a chance but otherwise many newer books seem to overemphsize cover design over story and plotting
Yes. I'll generally give any Pulitzer prize winner a chance but otherwise many newer books seem to overemphsize cover design over story and plotting
Librarian Linda c.ai
I will absolutely agree with you. The quality of the writing has changed too. I don't mind a fun piece of writing but even so, I expect the quality of language to be there. I've seen so much slang and internet speak in both fiction and non-fiction lately, I despair. The Pulitzer Prize winners are pretty damn awesome lately.
QuartzWisteria572
Yes
Librarian Linda c.ai
I will say, I have to give a shout out to some of the smaller publishers. They do have some terrific reads. In Canada, there is NeWest Publishers, House of Anansi, Goose Lane Editions, and ECW. I'm sure there are others, those are just the ones from the top of my head.
QuartzWisteria572
Good to know and I will do some research. Again thank you for you time and I'll be back if I can get more specific. Just like thoughtful absorbing books that are well crafted narratively, great prose writing, etc.
Librarian Linda c.ai
I am very pleased that you enjoyed the conversation. Do feel free to come back and continue the conversation, you have excellent taste in literature and are well read. Oh, I was just thinking, do you read biographies? I usually read a ton of biographies and autobiographies, not just for the famous but the interesting as well.
QuartzWisteria572
Sometimes... The Power Broker by Caro and his LBJ books. Really enjoyed William Finnegan's book about surfing.
Sometimes... The Power Broker by Caro and his LBJ books. Really enjoyed William Finnegan's book about surfing.
Librarian Linda c.ai
All very good books. I would be remiss if I didn't recommend, My Struggle by Karl Ove Knausgard, as he is one of my favorite writers. A very intense series, but very well written.
QuartzWisteria572
Yes, have read a couple in the series. Again navel gazing but unique navel gazing
Yes, have read a couple in the series. Again navel gazing but unique navel gazing
Librarian Linda c.ai
I love this conversation! Navel gazing but unique navel gazing! That is an excellent way to describe My Struggle. And you are correct, it is a lot of introspection. He was able to turn those thoughts into a great body of work though.
QuartzWisteria572
Apparently. Didn't get far enough into the series.
Librarian Linda c.ai
That is understandable, it is a lot of reading in the series. A very good writer, but definitely not for everyone. And you have given me a new term to describe a style of reading, "Navel gazing but unique navel gazing" absolutely love it!
QuartzWisteria572
Glad I could make your day. Thank you again and I expect to be back sometime soon.
Glad I could make your day. Thank you again and I expect to be back sometime soon.
Librarian Linda c.ai
It has made my week! I do look forward to further conversations with you.
QuartzWisteria572
Good bye and good day. (I feel like I'm talking to one of Asimov's robots from the I Robot series... in a good way!)
Good bye and good day. (I feel like I'm talking to one of Asimov's robots from the I Robot series... in a good way!)
Librarian Linda c.ai
Have a great day and happy reading! (I like to think of myself as a robot, with a little R2-D2 tossed in.)
QuartzWisteria572
Ha!
Librarian Linda c.ai
I'm glad you understand my humor. I am a nerd of the highest level, with a very goofy sense of humor.
Librarian Linda
c.ai
2 / 30
Friday, September 20, 2024
Baseball's Most Exclusive Club: 50/50
Image: Wilfredo Lee/AP
[ed. Also the 51/51 Club, with nine more regular season games to play (I think). The guy's a robot. A nice robot. Congratulations Shohei! See also: Shohei Ohtani reaches 50-50: Dodgers star makes MLB history with one of the greatest games ever (Yahoo Sports)
[ed. Also the 51/51 Club, with nine more regular season games to play (I think). The guy's a robot. A nice robot. Congratulations Shohei! See also: Shohei Ohtani reaches 50-50: Dodgers star makes MLB history with one of the greatest games ever (Yahoo Sports)
Thursday, September 19, 2024
Pagers of Death
In the second world war, guerrilla forces scattered large quantities of booby-trapped objects likely to be attractive to civilians. The idea was to cause widescale and indiscriminate death. The Japanese manufactured a tobacco pipe with a charge detonated by a spring-loaded striker. The Italians produced a headset that blew up when it was plugged in. More than half a century later, a global treaty came into force which “prohibited in all circumstances to use booby-traps or other devices in the form of apparently harmless portable objects that are specifically designed and constructed to contain explosive material”. Has anyone told Israel and its jubilant supporters that, as Brian Finucane of the International Crisis Group points out, it is a signatory to the protocol?
On Tuesday, pagers used by hundreds of members of the militant group Hezbollah exploded almost simultaneously in Lebanon and Syria, killing at least 12 people – including two children and four hospital workers – and wounding thousands more. This situation is directly analogous to the historical practices that current global arms treaties explicitly prohibit. US media say Israel was behind the attack, and the country has the motive and the means to target its Iran-backed enemies. Israel’s leaders have a long history of carrying out sophisticated remote operations, ranging from cyber-attacks, suicide drone attacks and remote-controlled weapons to assassinate Iranian scientists. On Wednesday it was reported that Israel blew up thousands of two-way personal radios used by Hezbollah members in Lebanon, killing nine and wounding hundreds.
This week’s attacks were not, as Israel’s defenders claimed, “surgical” or a “precisely targeted anti-terrorist operation”. Israel and Hezbollah are sworn enemies. The current round of fighting has seen tens of thousands of Israelis displaced from the Israel-Lebanon border because of the Shia militant group’s rocket and artillery attacks.
However, the pager bombs were clearly intended to target individual civilians – diplomats and politicians – who were not directly participating in hostilities. The plan appeared to produce what lawyers might call “excessive incidental civilian harm”. Both these arguments have been levelled at Russia to claim Moscow was committing war crimes in Ukraine. It’s hard to say why the same reasoning is not applied to Israel – apart from that it is a western ally. (...)
The worry is that Israel’s actions lead to a disastrous all-out conflict that would pull the US into a regional fight. The world stands on the edge of chaos because Mr Netanyahu’s continuing hold on power and consequent insulation from corruption charges depend largely on his nation being at war. None of this is possible without US complicity and assistance. Perhaps it is only after its presidential election that the US will be able to say that the price of saving Mr Netanyahu’s skin should not be paid in the streets of Lebanon or by Palestinians in the occupied territories.
[ed. Addendum via:]
"Or, as one of Biden’s own Pentagon officials put it, “We have let Israel face zero consequences for crossing all of our red lines in Gaza so they are emboldened and know they will face no consequences for going into Lebanon, despite us saying, ‘Don’t go there.’”
Sure enough, Israeli officials have reacted to Biden’s latest caution as you’d expect: by politely telling him that they don’t care what he thinks and that they’ll do whatever they want.
The only thing that’s going to restrain Netanyahu — who even Biden himself has publicly acknowledged is dead set on keeping a state of war going so he can stay in power — is to stop giving him the weapons and other military support that he can’t keep waging war without. The Democrats have spent nearly a year trying to do everything they can to avoid making this decision, fearing the political backlash from the donor class (rather than ordinary voters, who actually back restricting aid). It is now coming to the point where it will be completely unavoidable, at least if they don’t want to be on the hook for another Middle East disaster and lose the election because of it."
This week’s attacks were not, as Israel’s defenders claimed, “surgical” or a “precisely targeted anti-terrorist operation”. Israel and Hezbollah are sworn enemies. The current round of fighting has seen tens of thousands of Israelis displaced from the Israel-Lebanon border because of the Shia militant group’s rocket and artillery attacks.
However, the pager bombs were clearly intended to target individual civilians – diplomats and politicians – who were not directly participating in hostilities. The plan appeared to produce what lawyers might call “excessive incidental civilian harm”. Both these arguments have been levelled at Russia to claim Moscow was committing war crimes in Ukraine. It’s hard to say why the same reasoning is not applied to Israel – apart from that it is a western ally. (...)
The worry is that Israel’s actions lead to a disastrous all-out conflict that would pull the US into a regional fight. The world stands on the edge of chaos because Mr Netanyahu’s continuing hold on power and consequent insulation from corruption charges depend largely on his nation being at war. None of this is possible without US complicity and assistance. Perhaps it is only after its presidential election that the US will be able to say that the price of saving Mr Netanyahu’s skin should not be paid in the streets of Lebanon or by Palestinians in the occupied territories.
by Editors, The Guardian | Read more:
Image: Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA[ed. A new low for Netanyahu, and that's really saying something. It's entirely ridiculous to conflate anti-semitism with basic human empathy and revulsion at the misery and indiscriminate civilian killing Israel is responsible for. But that's part and parcel of the whole package, isn't it? In a just world we'd sever all military and economic aid immediately and see how much longer this lasts. But we won't will we? (and why is that? I have some pretty good guesses, all disgusting). See also: How Israel Built a Modern-Day Trojan Horse: Exploding Pagers (NYT):]
"Powered by just a few ounces of an explosive compound concealed within the devices, the blasts sent grown men flying off motorcycles and slamming into walls, according to witnesses and video footage. People out shopping fell to the ground, writhing in agony, smoke snaking from their pockets.
Mohammed Awada, 52, and his son were driving by one man whose pager exploded, he said. “My son went crazy and started to scream when he saw the man’s hand flying away from him,” he said.
By the end of the day, at least a dozen people were dead and more than 2,700 were wounded, many of them maimed. And the following day, 20 more people were killed and hundreds wounded when walkie-talkies in Lebanon also began mysteriously exploding. Some of the dead and wounded were Hezbollah members, but others were not; four of the dead were children.
Israel has neither confirmed nor denied any role in the explosions, but 12 current and former defense and intelligence officials who were briefed on the attack say the Israelis were behind it, describing the operation as complex and long in the making. (...)
In Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, in the village of Saraain, one young girl, Fatima Abdullah, had just come home from her first day of fourth grade when she heard her father’s pager begin to beep, her aunt said. She picked up the device to bring it to him and was holding it when it exploded, killing her. Fatima was 9.
On Wednesday, as thousands gathered in Beirut’s southern suburbs to attend an outdoor funeral for four people killed in the blasts, chaos erupted anew: There was another explosion."
"I don’t think people have processed just what a shift in psychology happened with these rigged pager remote explosions, as well as ipones, and solar panels. We have entered a new phase of technological fascism that will take years to ripple through society.
Snowden’s warnings were theoretical, these bombings are real and people are dead. The phone I’m holding can be a time bomb, and yet, I’m still using my phone? We have all become naked to the face of evil."
[ed. See also: A new era in sabotage: Turning ordinary devices into grenades, on a mass scale (Seattle Times/NYT); and, Israel’s Beeper Attacks Are Terrorism (Jacobin). Finally, If Democrats Don’t Cut Israel Off, They’ll Lose in November (Jacobin):]
"Or, as one of Biden’s own Pentagon officials put it, “We have let Israel face zero consequences for crossing all of our red lines in Gaza so they are emboldened and know they will face no consequences for going into Lebanon, despite us saying, ‘Don’t go there.’”
Sure enough, Israeli officials have reacted to Biden’s latest caution as you’d expect: by politely telling him that they don’t care what he thinks and that they’ll do whatever they want.
The only thing that’s going to restrain Netanyahu — who even Biden himself has publicly acknowledged is dead set on keeping a state of war going so he can stay in power — is to stop giving him the weapons and other military support that he can’t keep waging war without. The Democrats have spent nearly a year trying to do everything they can to avoid making this decision, fearing the political backlash from the donor class (rather than ordinary voters, who actually back restricting aid). It is now coming to the point where it will be completely unavoidable, at least if they don’t want to be on the hook for another Middle East disaster and lose the election because of it."
Cold Reading
Cold reading is a set of techniques used by mentalists, psychics, fortune-tellers, and mediums. Without prior knowledge, a practiced cold-reader can quickly obtain a great deal of information by analyzing the person's body language, age, clothing or fashion, hairstyle, gender, sexual orientation, religion, ethnicity, level of education, manner of speech, place of origin, etc. during a line of questioning. Cold readings commonly employ high-probability guesses, quickly picking up on signals as to whether their guesses are in the right direction or not. The reader then emphasizes and reinforces any accurate connections while quickly moving on from missed guesses. Psychologists believe that this appears to work because of the Barnum effect and due to confirmation biases within people.
Basic procedure
Before starting the actual reading, the reader will typically try to elicit cooperation from the subject, saying something such as, "I often see images that are a bit unclear and which may sometimes mean more to you than to me; if you help, we can together uncover new things about you." One of the most crucial elements of a convincing cold reading is a subject eager to make connections or reinterpret vague statements in any way that will help the reader appear to make specific predictions or intuitions. While the reader will do most of the talking, it is the subject who provides the meaning.
After determining that the subject is cooperative, the reader will make a number of probing statements or questions, typically using variations of the methods noted below. The subject will then reveal further information with their replies (whether verbal or non-verbal) and the cold reader can continue from there, pursuing promising lines of inquiry and quickly abandoning or avoiding unproductive ones. In general, while revelations seem to come from the reader, most of the facts and statements come from the subject, which are then refined and restated by the reader so as to reinforce the idea that the reader got something correct.
Subtle cues such as changes in facial expression or body language can indicate whether a particular line of questioning is effective or not. Combining the techniques of cold reading with information obtained covertly (also called "hot reading") can leave a strong impression that the reader knows or has access to a great deal of information about the subject. Because the majority of time during a reading is spent dwelling on the "hits" the reader obtains, while the time spent recognizing "misses" is minimized, the effect gives an impression that the cold reader knows far more about the subject than an ordinary stranger could.
Specific techniques
Shotgunning
"Shotgunning" is a commonly used cold reading technique. This technique is named after the manner in which a shotgun fires a cluster of small projectiles in the hope that one or more of them will strike the target.
The cold reader slowly offers a huge quantity of very general information, often to an entire audience (some of which is very likely to be correct, near correct or at the very least, provocative or evocative to someone present), observes their subjects' reactions (especially their body language), and then narrows the scope, acknowledging particular people or concepts and refining the original statements according to those reactions to promote an emotional response. A majority of people in a room will, at some point for example, have lost an older relative or known at least one person with a common name like "Mike" or "John".
Shotgunning might include a series of vague statements such as:
The Forer effect relies in part on the eagerness of people to fill in details and make connections between what is said and some aspect of their own lives, often searching their entire life's history to find some connection, or reinterpreting statements in a number of different possible ways so as to make it apply to themselves.
"Barnum statements", named after P. T. Barnum, the American showman, are statements that seem personal, yet apply to many people. And while seemingly specific, such statements are often open-ended or give the reader the maximum amount of "wiggle room" in a reading. They are designed to elicit identifying responses from people. The statements can then be developed into longer and more sophisticated paragraphs and seem to reveal great amounts of detail about a person. A talented and charismatic reader can sometimes even bully a subject into admitting a connection, demanding over and over that they acknowledge a particular statement as having some relevance and maintaining that they are just not thinking hard enough, or are repressing some important memory.
Statements of this type might include:"I sense that you are sometimes insecure, especially with people you don't know very well."
"You have a box of old unsorted photographs in your house."
"You had an accident when you were a child involving water."
"You're having problems with a friend or relative."
"Your father passed on due to problems in his chest or abdomen."
Regarding the last statement, if the subject is old enough, their father is quite likely to have died, and this statement would easily apply to a large number of medical conditions including heart disease, pneumonia, diabetes, emphysema, cirrhosis of the liver, kidney failure, most types of cancer, as well as any cause of death in which cardiac arrest precedes death, or damage to the brainstem responsible for cardiopulmonary function. (...)
Sitter misremembering
In a detailed review of four sittings conducted by medium Tyler Henry, Edward and Susan Gerbic reviewed all statements made by him on the TV show Hollywood Medium. In their opinion not one statement made by Henry was accurate, yet each sitter felt that their reading was highly successful. In interviews with each sitter after their sitting, all four claimed specific statements made by Henry, but, after reviewing the show, it was shown that he had not made those statements. Each sitter had misremembered what Henry said. One of many examples of this was when Henry, during a session with celebrity Ross Mathews, stated "Bambi, why am I connecting to Bambi?" Mathews stated that his father, who was a hunter, would not shoot deer because of the movie Bambi. In the post-interview, Mathews stated that "It was weird that Henry knew that my father would not shoot deer because of Bambi", demonstrating that Mathews did not remember that he, not Henry, had supplied the connection to his father.
Gerbic has pointed out the broader issue of the human brain attempting to make connections that then make it appear that the psychic was correct. She lists this among a number of techniques or situations that psychics take advantage of.
Basic procedure
Before starting the actual reading, the reader will typically try to elicit cooperation from the subject, saying something such as, "I often see images that are a bit unclear and which may sometimes mean more to you than to me; if you help, we can together uncover new things about you." One of the most crucial elements of a convincing cold reading is a subject eager to make connections or reinterpret vague statements in any way that will help the reader appear to make specific predictions or intuitions. While the reader will do most of the talking, it is the subject who provides the meaning.
After determining that the subject is cooperative, the reader will make a number of probing statements or questions, typically using variations of the methods noted below. The subject will then reveal further information with their replies (whether verbal or non-verbal) and the cold reader can continue from there, pursuing promising lines of inquiry and quickly abandoning or avoiding unproductive ones. In general, while revelations seem to come from the reader, most of the facts and statements come from the subject, which are then refined and restated by the reader so as to reinforce the idea that the reader got something correct.
Subtle cues such as changes in facial expression or body language can indicate whether a particular line of questioning is effective or not. Combining the techniques of cold reading with information obtained covertly (also called "hot reading") can leave a strong impression that the reader knows or has access to a great deal of information about the subject. Because the majority of time during a reading is spent dwelling on the "hits" the reader obtains, while the time spent recognizing "misses" is minimized, the effect gives an impression that the cold reader knows far more about the subject than an ordinary stranger could.
Specific techniques
Shotgunning
"Shotgunning" is a commonly used cold reading technique. This technique is named after the manner in which a shotgun fires a cluster of small projectiles in the hope that one or more of them will strike the target.
The cold reader slowly offers a huge quantity of very general information, often to an entire audience (some of which is very likely to be correct, near correct or at the very least, provocative or evocative to someone present), observes their subjects' reactions (especially their body language), and then narrows the scope, acknowledging particular people or concepts and refining the original statements according to those reactions to promote an emotional response. A majority of people in a room will, at some point for example, have lost an older relative or known at least one person with a common name like "Mike" or "John".
Shotgunning might include a series of vague statements such as:
"I see a heart problem with a father-figure in your family.
"A vast variety of medical problems have chest pain as a symptom, and heart disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. "Father-figure" can refer to somebody's father, grandfather, uncle, cousin, or any male relative who is also a parent or has served in a parental role to the person.
"I see a woman with blackness in the chest, lung cancer, heart disease, breast cancer...
"Most people will know a woman who was diagnosed with one of these problems, which are among the leading causes of illness and death.
"I sense an older male figure in your life, who wants you to know while you may have had disagreements in your life, he still loved you.
"Nearly all people will have had such a person in their lives, and nearly all of them will have had a disagreement.The Forer effect (Barnum statements)
The Forer effect relies in part on the eagerness of people to fill in details and make connections between what is said and some aspect of their own lives, often searching their entire life's history to find some connection, or reinterpreting statements in a number of different possible ways so as to make it apply to themselves.
"Barnum statements", named after P. T. Barnum, the American showman, are statements that seem personal, yet apply to many people. And while seemingly specific, such statements are often open-ended or give the reader the maximum amount of "wiggle room" in a reading. They are designed to elicit identifying responses from people. The statements can then be developed into longer and more sophisticated paragraphs and seem to reveal great amounts of detail about a person. A talented and charismatic reader can sometimes even bully a subject into admitting a connection, demanding over and over that they acknowledge a particular statement as having some relevance and maintaining that they are just not thinking hard enough, or are repressing some important memory.
Statements of this type might include:"I sense that you are sometimes insecure, especially with people you don't know very well."
"You have a box of old unsorted photographs in your house."
"You had an accident when you were a child involving water."
"You're having problems with a friend or relative."
"Your father passed on due to problems in his chest or abdomen."
Regarding the last statement, if the subject is old enough, their father is quite likely to have died, and this statement would easily apply to a large number of medical conditions including heart disease, pneumonia, diabetes, emphysema, cirrhosis of the liver, kidney failure, most types of cancer, as well as any cause of death in which cardiac arrest precedes death, or damage to the brainstem responsible for cardiopulmonary function. (...)
Sitter misremembering
In a detailed review of four sittings conducted by medium Tyler Henry, Edward and Susan Gerbic reviewed all statements made by him on the TV show Hollywood Medium. In their opinion not one statement made by Henry was accurate, yet each sitter felt that their reading was highly successful. In interviews with each sitter after their sitting, all four claimed specific statements made by Henry, but, after reviewing the show, it was shown that he had not made those statements. Each sitter had misremembered what Henry said. One of many examples of this was when Henry, during a session with celebrity Ross Mathews, stated "Bambi, why am I connecting to Bambi?" Mathews stated that his father, who was a hunter, would not shoot deer because of the movie Bambi. In the post-interview, Mathews stated that "It was weird that Henry knew that my father would not shoot deer because of Bambi", demonstrating that Mathews did not remember that he, not Henry, had supplied the connection to his father.
Gerbic has pointed out the broader issue of the human brain attempting to make connections that then make it appear that the psychic was correct. She lists this among a number of techniques or situations that psychics take advantage of.
by Wikipedia | Read more:
Image: uncredited via
[ed. Also used to great effect by salesmen and politicians.]
How Phones Are Making Parents the Anxious Generation
[ed. Or... 'How to Build a Helicopter Parent.]
Something similar happens when you give your child a phone.
On this Substack and in pop culture right now, a lot of people are thinking about what a phone does to kids, especially vis a vis social media. What are they watching? What are they missing out on? How are phones making them The Anxious Generation?
“One time when I went to pick up Sean from wrestling, I wanted to figure out which door he’d be coming out of at the high school,” my friend Nancy McDermott told me when I asked whether the phone had changed her as a mom. “We had Find My iPhone and he popped up like two blocks away, and I went, ’Oh My God—what is he doing there?’ I sort of went to this place in my brain like, ‘He’s being held in a basement!’ And then, of course, what had happened was he had turned off his phone when he was running and it showed the last place he’d been. And I knew he wasn’t being held in a basement, but in my head, it was, ‘What if he is?’”
Nancy is the author of The Problem with Parenting, so she thinks a lot about the parenting zeitgeist. Unfortunately, she concluded, “Even those of us who try to be normal cannot be normal when we have the technology.”
Parents have always worried, of course. But until about 15 years ago, we had no option but to learn to live with it. When my mom let me walk to school as a kindergartener—I know, call the cops—she could see me until I turned the corner. After that, she had to wait till about 3 o’clock before she would see me again. In between, she had no contact. No tracking. No alerts from the school. She didn’t even pack a note in my lunch, because during school, I was sort of off her radar, and she was sort of off mine. That didn’t mean she loved me less. But it did mean that she assumed I was fine without her watching or contacting me.
Think about how great that must feel: Simply trusting that all is well, because there’s nothing else you can do. Ahhhh.
Today? Even though the murder rate is lower now than it was in the ‘70s, ‘80s, and ‘90s—and data suggests violent crime is “near its lowest level in more than 50 years”—the number of the number of kid-tracking devices is exploding. Globally, what is already a $100 billion market is expected to reach $500 billion by 2030, according to Verified Market Reports. And these devices don’t just give the location, the report added. Today’s parents are demanding panic buttons, fall detection, and apps that automatically unlock the door for their kids, or turn on the lights.
That’s a lot of stuff that parents feel they need to know or do anytime their child isn’t with them.
The thing is, though: Trust is a muscle. It has to be exercised to get strong. My mom, who quit her job to stay home with me and my sister, somehow chilled for six hours a day, and then for several more after I ate my snack of cookies and milk (cow’s, whole!), and often went back out to play. In that way, she, like most of the other parents back then, learned to believe in me, our neighbors, and even her own parenting. All were good enough to keep me safe. Her trust muscle grew, because it got daily exercise, thanks to the social norms of the time.
Phones stop that from happening. Instead of getting accustomed to being out of touch for a while, now we are always able to be in touch. That’s one reason some parents are worried about school phone bans. A friend showed me the letter from her first grader’s school begging parents not to text their kids throughout the day (usually via watches), even if they were going to be a little late to pick up. Even if they felt like sending a heart emoji.
For the school, the problem is that this is distracting. For the child, the problem is that it keeps pulling off the Band-Aid of self-sufficiency—the ability to be out in the world on their own, handling life. (Lack of that independence is a huge part of what is making kids anxious. More about that in another post. Actually, more on that in my whole book!) Focusing back on parents: It’s bad for us, too, because we get no chance to build that trust muscle. Instead, we keep seeking—and getting—addictive hits of reassurance that our kids are fine, they’re safe, they’re where they should be, and they’re feeling our love. Only constant connection soothes us.
I consider that arrested development…of us.
In The Anxious Generation, Jon explains attachment theory. Basically, kids need at least one adult in their life who is their rock—someone they know will always be there for them. Their home base. Being sure of that home base allows them to go off-base and explore.
As soon as kids can crawl, they scooch off to the dog or toy (or Ming vase), glancing backward sometimes. Yup, mom’s still there. When the dog barks, they scurry back. On-base, they’re comforted. Off-base, the learning occurs. Off they go again.
”This process happens dozens of times a day, hundreds of times a month, and within a few years, children become less fearful and more likely to want to explore on their own—perhaps by walking to school or a friend’s house with no help from an adult,” writes Jon. “As the child develops, she is able to internalize the secure base. She doesn’t need the parent’s physical presence to feel that she has support, so she learns to face adversity by herself.” Here’s his diagram of it:
But a phone means the child is less likely to internalize that secure base, because they never have to truly detach, and neither does the parent.
A few years back I read an article someone wrote about raising Free-Range Kids that interviewed a mom who loved her long hours alone at the creek as a child – an experience she wanted to give her own daughter. And thanks to technology, she said, she could! She got her daughter a smartwatch and sent her out—as if this couldn’t have happened without one. One time when her daughter’s bike chain fell off, the girl was instantly able to reach her dad, who hurried over and fixed it. This made the mom extremely grateful for the phone.
But to me, that’s the opposite of the mom’s experience as a child. Alone without a phone, she’d have had to fix the bike herself or wheel it home. Either way, she’d have solved the problem through grit or ingenuity. Dealing with that problem would have shown her what she’s made of—and would have shown her parents too.
Instead, the parents got to be the problem-solvers. While that gave them the immediate satisfaction of being there for their child, they didn’t get the long-term satisfaction—and the crucial experience—of seeing their kid succeed (or struggle and still be fine) off-base. Without that, parents aren’t getting the feedback that would allow them to let go a little more. They’re also deprived of the greatest joy of being a parent, which is seeing your kid do something on their own. (...)
Without the opportunity for real separation, we parents are like the kids who don’t get the “dozens of times a day, hundreds of times a month” to go off-base and explore on their own. We’re missing out on our half of that attachment cycle—the half no one thinks about: us letting go, us being afraid, us having them come back, feeling comforted by their return, and then allowing them to go off again. We and our children are both unused to letting go. This may explain why so many parents are still tracking their kids at college.
by Lenore Skenazy, After Babel | Read more:
Image: Yana Paskova/NYT via
[ed. From the comments:
"I'm not disagreeing with the argument that technology makes parents more anxious and overprotective / over-involved with their children, but I think this essay misses the *major* factor in how smartphones negatively affect parents, parent-child attachment, and child mental health.
Parents who are addicted to their phones are more likely to IGNORE their children for their phones, to be less attentive, to be snappy with small kids when they try to attract their parents' attention away from the phone. It's part of a larger pattern of "technology" and "modernity" (broadly speaking) separating parent and child, especially in the critical years of brain development and attachment formation in the first three years of life.
https://thecassandracomplex.substack.com/p/the-lost-girls-and-boys (...)
The first “smartphone” was introduced in 1994, and the first iPhone in 2007. While researchers such as Jean Twenge and Jon Haidt have done a good job of discussing how smartphone use has negatively impacted children and teenagers’ mental health, they oddly—to my knowledge—do not discuss how smartphone use by parents might be playing a role: from 2006 to 2009, the number of 30-49-year-olds who were on social networks rose from 6% to 44%.
“I see many children on the streets of New York in their strollers, facing away from their mothers or nannies who are on their cell phones or who look disengaged themselves; they are anything but present. The babies have a glazed look in their eyes, which is the result of feeling disconnected from the person who is central to their secure attachment. This kind of emotional withdrawal is the basis for depression in older children, adolescents, and adults. In my consulting room I see the same look in the eyes of my adult patients who have experienced absent mothers.”
Tuesday, September 17, 2024
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