[ed. I've only been involved in one major disaster in my life - coordinating and supervising cleanup for the Exxon Valdez oil spill - but the ongoing cornonavirus response has prompted reflection on parallels that might be instructive in our present-day crisis (especially since this time around we're the affected wildlife):
Initially, disbelief followed by widespread horror and panic (in this case, more like a dawning realization of severity). Decisions are ceded to experts (scientists), who themselves are overwhelmed with intense pressure to gather data quickly, disseminate information, coordinate with peers, and interact with the public (media being a constant presence and distracting pressure). Different plans are evaluated and, after many fits and starts, a final approach/strategy is agreed to. Resources (such as they are) are marshalled, checkbooks open, massive dollars are allocated (with flexible terms and wide distribution) and logistics become key. Timelines for securing needed equipment and support facilities become the most important factors driving success of the response going forward. [ed. Where we are now: 4/1/2020.]
At the same time (and throughout the rest of the response), various alternatives and response actions will continue to be proposed, reviewed, tested and modified. Confusion escalates as different players insert themselves into the decision-making process, jockeying for influence. Unsoliticed advice and untested 'solutions' flood in, jamming lines of communication and authority. [ed. Where we are now: 4/6/2020. But expect this process to continue indefinitely.]
As more resources are secured and the response ramps up, focus shifts to execution. But it's execution that's uneven, with different priorities and targets based on different sources of input and pressure. Some areas are hit harder than others. Politicians propose new emergency orders and legislation. Communities and other affected entities become increasingly more vocal and activist. Lobbyists and others (insurers, risk management experts, state and foreign delegations, etc.) descend in droves. Advocacy organizations mobilize supporters.
Then, whatever happens happens, with success (a highly subjective and undefined term) largely dependent upon how closely response efforts adhere to established guidelines (usually, hit or miss); guidelines which themselves are constantly being revised to incorporate new sources of information (leading to more confusion). (ed. Where we are now: 4/16/2020).
This goes on for some time with the system evaluating and re-evaluating various metrics of success while chains-of-command gradually reassert themselves. Prominent players from early in the response (eg. scientists, administrators, technicians) are slowly shuffled back into their established roles so that messaging can be more effectively managed by higher level personnel more attuned to political and PR considerations. The public can only watch and form their own conclusions about decisions that were made, how effective they are, and what it all means, or will mean. Media plays a large role in defining public opinion. (Where we are now, May 2, 2020).
Finally, at some later stage (post-peak, well into the response) as the disaster slowly abates, expect to see growing opportunism, ass-covering, finger-pointing and greed (remember all that money?). This phase was especially grating since nearly everyone involved started with a common focus and unmitigated mutual trust and support. It was particularly instructive to see how the spill destabilized existing power relationships and how those relationships eventually reestablished themselves. Power snaps back.
With this disaster, in an election year, it'll be interesting to see how this all plays out. Especially now that 'disaster capitalism' is a well understood concept (which wasn't the case back then), and also because of the open-ended nature of the problem itself. See also: The Lockdown Is an Opportunity to Redefine What Our Economy Is For (Jacobin). I can only speculate but have a feeling that recovery will be a long and uniquely difficult/different process this time. In many ways, large and small, the world will never be the same again. We'll see what that means.
Note: As the coronavirus response proceeds, I'll link to this post once in a while to see how closely we're following the script.
See also: What Are The Dying Worth? and Why the Global Recession Could Last a Long Time (NY Times).]
With this disaster, in an election year, it'll be interesting to see how this all plays out. Especially now that 'disaster capitalism' is a well understood concept (which wasn't the case back then), and also because of the open-ended nature of the problem itself. See also: The Lockdown Is an Opportunity to Redefine What Our Economy Is For (Jacobin). I can only speculate but have a feeling that recovery will be a long and uniquely difficult/different process this time. In many ways, large and small, the world will never be the same again. We'll see what that means.
Note: As the coronavirus response proceeds, I'll link to this post once in a while to see how closely we're following the script.
See also: What Are The Dying Worth? and Why the Global Recession Could Last a Long Time (NY Times).]
