[ed. I had never heard of Intrade until today. This is not an advertisment and I'm not using it to gamble, but am curious about its predictive abilities over a wide range of topics. This might be more useful than polling since people are putting actual money where their mouths are. For example: The U.S. economy will go into recession in 2012.]
What is a prediction market?
Intrade is a prediction market. What is a prediction market? It's a market that allows you to make predictions on the outcome of hundreds of real-world events. Stock exchanges find the price of stocks, and futures markets find the price of commodities. Prediction markets find the probability of something happening - a predefined, uncertain future event.
Will the financial markets be up today? Will a certain candidate win the next election? Who will win the Academy Awards? If you have an opinion on what will happen then you can make a prediction on Intrade. Predict correctly and you can win real money profits.
Who am I buying from? Who am I selling to?
Intrade is an exchange - like the New York or London stock exchanges for example. When you buy shares you are buying them from another member of Intrade. And when you sell shares, another member of the exchange is buying them from you. You do not buy shares from Intrade, and Intrade does not buy shares from you. You are always trading shares with other members of the exchange - other people who are making predictions, just like you.
It is important to remember that Intrade is a market. This means you may not always be able to get what you want. If you are looking to buy some shares, but nobody is selling, then you can't buy the shares that you want.
Read more:
What is a prediction market?
Intrade is a prediction market. What is a prediction market? It's a market that allows you to make predictions on the outcome of hundreds of real-world events. Stock exchanges find the price of stocks, and futures markets find the price of commodities. Prediction markets find the probability of something happening - a predefined, uncertain future event.
Will the financial markets be up today? Will a certain candidate win the next election? Who will win the Academy Awards? If you have an opinion on what will happen then you can make a prediction on Intrade. Predict correctly and you can win real money profits.
Who am I buying from? Who am I selling to?
Intrade is an exchange - like the New York or London stock exchanges for example. When you buy shares you are buying them from another member of Intrade. And when you sell shares, another member of the exchange is buying them from you. You do not buy shares from Intrade, and Intrade does not buy shares from you. You are always trading shares with other members of the exchange - other people who are making predictions, just like you.
It is important to remember that Intrade is a market. This means you may not always be able to get what you want. If you are looking to buy some shares, but nobody is selling, then you can't buy the shares that you want.
Read more:
