Anthropic, which makes the Claude chatbot, is a tent pole of the AI industry. Valued in the private markets at nearly $1 trillion and backed by more than $130 billion in funding, it could raise $100 billion in its offering and promptly become one of the world’s biggest public companies. But the stakes are even higher than that.
Anthropic’s listing will provide the first in-depth look at the health of a key business underlying the AI boom — and will be a test of its durability. Is there unending appetite for AI services to justify the spending on chips, data centers and other infrastructure? Or will Anthropic’s performance show that there are limits?
“For the market, it’s a bellwether,” said Umesh Padval, an investor at Seligman Ventures, who has worked in tech for nearly 40 years.
If Anthropic disappoints in its public debut, that could hurt investor confidence and cascade into a wider market sell-off, casting doubts on how much longer the AI boom can go. A successful offering could lift the market and pave the way for more AI companies to go public.
Stock markets are already on edge, with technology stocks broadly falling this month, led by a sell-off in the companies that design and produce the computer chips that power AI. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is in a bear market, defined as a decline of 20% or more from a recent high and a sign of significant investor angst, after falling 26% from its June peak.
Over the last couple of weeks, Microsoft canceled a deal with Nscale, a provider of data centers. A report from the research firm Gartner predicted that 80% of “neoclouds,” the companies that provide data and computing power for AI firms, could be forced out of business. And Ken Griffin, the billionaire owner of the hedge fund Citadel, said AI investors were “almost certainly” in a bubble.
Those negative signals have added to fears about the huge piles of money being spent on AI infrastructure. Amazon, Meta, Google and Microsoft have said they plan to spend at least $740 billion on AI infrastructure, including data centers, this year. Private market investors have poured $1.1 trillion into Anthropic, OpenAI and other AI companies since 2022, according to PitchBook, which tracks investments.
As spending and investment have risen in private markets, public investments have grown, too, increasing the stock market’s reliance on the performance of the AI industry. The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 are worth more than $1 trillion together, with eight of them being tech companies. Combined, the top 10 account for over 40% of the index, up from less than 20% a decade ago.
When Anthropic is added to the index, it is likely to displace either Berkshire Hathaway or Eli Lilly, the only non-tech companies with valuations above $1 trillion, from the top 10.
“There is a lot riding on this one,” said Brad Gastwirth, the global head of research and market intelligence at Circular Technology, a supply chain services firm. “If it goes bad, it’s going to bring down the market.”
by Erin Griffith and Lauren Hirsch, Seattle Times/NY Times | Read more:
Image: Dustin Chambers/The New York Times
[ed. House of cards. Too many moving parts, with precarious circular financing, locked-in future contracts, uncertain political and regulatory climate, and a product that could kill everybody. Plus, no signs of AI payoff outside the tech sector so far. So, more than a little liability baked in. See also: Wall Street prepares for AI's "day after" and, Anthropic to investors: Trump hates us so much (Axios).]
