Sunday, February 23, 2025

Robot Umps Are Here

It was pitchers and catchers who reported to spring training last week. Been there, done that.

But you know who reports to spring training this week who has never been or done any of this? Get ready. Here come the robots.

We’ve never lived in a world in which major-league spring training games had balls and strikes called by robot umps, otherwise known as the Automated Ball-Strike system (ABS). But it’ll happen this spring, when MLB will give its players a chance to test out the ABS challenge system in games all over Florida and Arizona. The dry run begins Thursday in a nationally televised Cactus League game between the Cubs and Dodgers.

So is that a sure sign those robots will arrive in a regular-season ballpark near you by 2026? Not necessarily. The arrival date remains uncertain. The league might want to postpone implementing anything significant until it gets to the other side of the next labor crisis in two years. Or not.

But does it feel inevitable that one of these years, MLB will be using technology to get the big ball-strike calls right? Not much doubt about that.

So it’s a good thing they’re not unleashing the robots without getting extensive feedback from the players. And those reviews will be flowing within days, as soon as teams test-drive a system in which each club will get two chances per game to challenge ball-strike calls. (Just like replay, they won’t burn a challenge if ABS — and the Hawk-Eye cameras that power it — decides: You’re right.)

Fan feedback will also be a thing this spring. MLB will be paying close attention to how fans react to seeing umpires have actual strike calls overturned in actual games played by actual major leaguers. And won’t that be fun? (...)

Lesson one: The strike zone is not the same

We’ve all watched baseball games on TV. We’ve all seen that attractive-looking rectangle that comprises the K Zone. So is that K Zone what big leaguers are about to get dropped into? Um, not quite. This zone — unlike those zones — will actually be accurate.

But there will be one important similarity between those TV zones and the ABS zone — namely…

That rectangle.

We’ll let you in on a critical secret that is about to get exposed. That strike zone called by human umpires in the big leagues may be a rectangle in theory — but it’s more like an oval in real life. That’s because many pitches up and in, or up and away, are not called strikes by human umps, even though they’re technically in the zone.

by Jayson Stark, The Athletic |  Read more:
Image: Mike Janes/Four Seam Images/AP
[ed. The robots are coming.]

Damn It, Do Something!

As Senator Chris Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut, sat seething in his office last month watching President Trump blame diversity requirements at the Federal Aviation Administration for the deadly plane crash over the Potomac River, members of his staff warned him against publicly venting his rage.

The midair collision had happened less than 12 hours earlier, they reminded him; bodies were still in the water and families were still being notified about the deaths of loved ones. Perhaps it would be more befitting of a U.S. senator to be respectful of the tragedy and all of its unknowns, rather than seize the political moment and respond?

Mr. Murphy had no time for that.

“Everybody in this country should be outraged that Donald Trump is standing up on that podium and lying to you — deliberately lying to you,” he said in an impassioned video he recorded and posted within 30 minutes of Mr. Trump’s news conference. “Every single senator and member of Congress should call him out for how disgraceful it was.”

Many did, but none managed to do so quite as quickly or concisely as Mr. Murphy, 51, who has seemed to be everywhere, all at once, since Inauguration Day, staging a loud and constant resistance to Mr. Trump at a time when Democrats are struggling to figure out how to respond to him.

Mr. Murphy, a career politician who rose to national prominence as a gun safety advocate after the 2012 Sandy Hook elementary school shooting in Newtown, Conn., has emerged in the opening weeks of Mr. Trump’s second term as one of the most effective Democratic communicators pushing back against a president unbound.

In two-minute videos on social media, which he records from his office on Capitol Hill; an almost constant stream of posts on X; passionate floor speeches; and essays he writes on his Substack, Mr. Murphy is attempting to explain in digestible sound bites that what is happening in Washington is very simple: It’s a billionaire takeover of American democracy. (...)

“It’s an overwhelming moment,” Mr. Murphy said in an interview on Wednesday in his office on Capitol Hill. “Our political brand is fundamentally broken, the rule of law is disintegrating and a lot of people still don’t know what Trump’s actual agenda is.” (...)

He’s providing Democrats with a messaging blueprint for how to take on Trump and Musk and win back working-class voters.”

Mr. Murphy, who is aging out of the “boy wonder” phase of his political career (he was 33 when first elected to the House), is not exactly charismatic; he is cerebral and serious. At a recent news conference, he did not crack a smile when Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York and the minority leader, made corny jokes about his grandson losing his first tooth, waiting them out stone-faced until it was his turn to speak. (...)

“Dictators and despots, they use law enforcement to try and compel loyalty,” he said in one video, explaining why people needed to care that the Justice Department had dropped its charges against Mayor Eric Adams of New York. “They threaten you with arrest if you’re not loyal; they will let you get away with crimes if you are loyal. That’s what’s happening in America today.”

But a constitutional crisis can offer an opportunity for a civics refresher, and Mr. Murphy appears to be breaking through.

Over the past two months, he has doubled his Instagram following on both his official and political accounts. Since Jan. 1, Mr. Murphy’s Facebook and Instagram accounts have racked up 29.2 million impressions. On Substack, Mr. Murphy’s subscribers have increased by 223 percent. His campaign has spent more on fund-raising ads on Meta in 2025 than it did in the entirety of the 2023-24 cycle, when he was running for re-election.

“My 16-year-old son for the first time, he said to me, ‘What’s going on? My friends are seeing your stuff,’” Mr. Murphy said. “I’m showing up on a 16-year-old’s TikTok feed.”

That is one of his current metrics of success.

“People are trying to understand this moment,” he said. “They’re looking for people who can explain it in terms that are pretty simple. I want to create explanations and content that get sent to people that are not reading and thinking about politics every day, but know something is screwy and want to understand it.”

Mr. Murphy insists he is not just doing all this to set up a run for president, in part because he thinks it is no sure thing that there will even be a race to enter in four years.

“Right now, there is a distinct possibility that we do not have a free and fair election in 2028, and all of our work is to make sure that doesn’t happen,” he said.

Mr. Murphy said he can easily envision a future where “the press is so demoralized, the opposition is so beleaguered and harassed that you just don’t have the ability to mount an opposition.” (...)

“Nothing matters other than the question of whether or not we let the billionaires destroy our democracy,” he said. “There’s a ticking time bomb inside our body politic right now. It’s very possible this thing could be completely rigged by the summer or fall of this year.”

So Mr. Murphy has decided to set his hair on fire to get people to pay attention. He is on YouTube, doing interviews with Mr. Minaj and political influencers like Brian Tyler Cohen, Mehdi Hassan and Jack Cocchiarella. He is on Substack, talking to Anand Giridharadas. He is on TikTok talking to Aaron Parnas. And he is wherever you get your podcasts, talking to Jon Favreau.

“The actual TV appearance has limited impact right now,” he said. “What you’re actually doing those TV appearances for is to create content that ultimately lives somewhere else.”

Mr. Schumer, who has come in for criticism from some progressive activists for failing to effectively respond to Mr. Trump, has been encouraging him to keep going.

“Chris Murphy’s frustration and anger at what Trump is doing is genuine and he has a unique, strong, and incredibly valuable way of pushing back,” he said.

Mr. Murphy is also shifting with the times. These days, he bemoans the fact that economic populists in Congress like Senators Bernie Sanders, independent of Vermont, and Elizabeth Warren, Democrat of Massachusetts, are treated like radicals. He thinks their ideas have the best chance of crossing over and picking up voters who are currently in Mr. Trump’s camp. But in 2016, Mr. Murphy was an early and eager backer of Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign over Mr. Sanders in what became a heated Democratic primary.

His party’s devastating 2024 losses, coupled with Mr. Trump’s blatant abuses of his authority, have made Mr. Murphy rethink a conventional approach to politics. These days, he has been meeting with his Senate colleagues to persuade them that this is not a time to play by any old political rules.
 
by Annie Karnie, NY Times |  Read more:
Image: Haiyun Jiang
[ed. Damn right. It's sickening to see spineless Republican sychophants in both the White House and Congress prostrate themselves before power, rationalizing the policies and executive orders that are destroying this country. Enablers, all. And suck-ups. Equally disgusting are Democrats who seem content to simply wring their hands, put out press releases and push grandpa Chuck Schumer out to talk about how "aroused" he is and how we'll all win if we just "fight, fight, fight". Which apparently means: passing the ball to the courts and hoping something eventually sinks in to an outraged public (post-destruction). Ack, I'm sick of them all. Fortunately, there are still a few patriots who are genuinely concerned with our impending constitutional crisis and are bringing the outrage it deserves, actively connecting with the public and providing much needed perspective and support. Mr. Murphy above, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, AOC. Damn it, every Democrat should be out on every available media platform every day making a case for protecting average citizens, with clear ideas on how that can and will be accomplished. See previous post: Listen, Liberal: Why the Democrats Fear Populism. Until then, I'm not voting for either party (and writing my Democratic senator with the same message).]




“It’s tempting to compare Republicans to Prussian aristocrats in 1930s Germany. But Prussian aristocrats were more responsible. They were dealing with civil unrest and the threat of a communist takeover. Republicans today have historically low unemployment, a record stock market. What’s their excuse?”

Political survival is one. Senate and House Republicans know Trump will orchestrate the running of a primary challenger backed by Elon Musk’s unlimited resources if a member defies him. But this is not the whole story of Republican subservience to the president. In private, Republicans talk about their fear that Trump might incite his MAGA followers to commit political violence against them if they don’t rubber-stamp his actions.

“They’re scared shitless about death threats and Gestapo-like stuff,” a former member of Trump’s first administration tells me. ~ “They’re Scared Shitless” (Vanity Fair)

Saturday, February 22, 2025

CFPB RIP

More than a decade and a half ago, I watched Elizabeth Warren bring a crowd in Washington to its feet with a ringing indictment of Wall Street and the toxic mortgage securities that had pushed the American banking system to the brink of collapse in the great financial crisis of 2008. Warren was then a fiftysomething professor at Harvard Law School, and not very well known. Harry Reid, the Democratic Majority Leader in the Senate, had recently appointed her to a congressional panel tasked with examining the seven-hundred-billion-dollar bank bailout that George W. Bush had signed into law in October, 2008. As well as lambasting the bankers for their recklessness and greed, Warren was demanding the creation of a new agency to defend the interests of mortgage holders, savings depositors, credit-card holders, and anybody else who was obliged to deal with banks and other financial companies. In 2010, a Democratic-controlled Congress passed the Dodd-Frank reform act, which created the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (C.F.P.B). Warren served as an adviser to Barack Obama and helped to get the new agency up and running.

A week ago, Elon Musk tweeted, “CFPB RIP.” In short order, the Trump Administration has shuttered the headquarters of the agency, halted most of its operations, and laid off some of its staff. Since Musk’s démarche, Warren—who was elected to the Senate as a Democrat from Massachusetts in 2013, and is now in her third term—has led the effort to save the C.F.P.B., speaking at a rally outside its offices, tearing into the Tesla C.E.O. in television interviews, and, in a Senate hearing, pressing Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, to confirm that without the C.F.P.B. there is no government agency to insure that financial companies obey consumer-protection laws.

When I caught up with Warren on the phone, late last week, she recalled that prior to the creation of the C.F.P.B., responsibility for enforcing these laws was split between six regulatory agencies. “It was nobody’s first job, and nothing got done,” she remarked. The founding of the C.F.P.B. brought consumer protection—regulation, supervision, and enforcement—under one roof. “For a dozen years, the C.F.P.B. has been the financial cop on the beat,” Warren went on. “It has found more than twenty-one billion dollars in fraud and scams, and scooped up that money and returned it directly to the people who were cheated. Now Elon Musk comes in and says, ‘Let’s fire the cops.’ What could possibly go wrong?”

Since its inception, the C.F.P.B. has tackled a broad range of abuses by financial firms. Last year, it ordered a reduction in credit-card late fees, which cut the typical payment by more than half, and capped bank overdraft fees at five dollars. In January, a week before Trump’s Inauguration, the C.F.P.B. sued Capital One, the ninth-biggest bank in the country, accusing it of cheating its customers out of more than two billion dollars in interest payments on their savings accounts by failing to inform them that higher rate options were available. (Capital One disputed the agency’s claims and said that it would vigorously defend itself in court.)

The C.F.P.B. has also sought to regulate payday lending, debt collection, and credit ratings. Last month, it announced that its victims’ relief fund, which is financed from fines levied on businesses that break the law, would pay out $1.8 billion to 4.3 million hard-pressed Americans who were preyed upon by a group of now bankrupt firms that used deceptive telemarketing, charged illegal fees, and failed to deliver on promises to repair tarnished credit ratings. In another investigation, staffers at the agency discovered that debt collectors working for hospitals and other medical providers were coercing people into making payments by threatening to report their medical debts to ratings agencies. At the beginning of January, the C.F.P.B. finalized a rule that would prohibit ratings agencies from listing medical debt on credit reports.

Like many of the C.F.P.B.’s actions, this new rule has been challenged in the courts. “The debt-collection agencies were making a ton of money from this practice, so they had a strong incentive to fight,” Julie Margetta Morgan, a former associate director of research at the agency, told me. Right now, it seems possible that the Trump Administration will completely dismantle the C.F.P.B., reverse many of its rules, and settle its outstanding cases on terms favorable to the defendants. If that happens, “it’s open season on everyone who has a credit card, a mortgage, a car loan, a payday loan, a student loan, or uses an online financial app,” Warren said.

Appearing alongside Donald Trump in the Oval Office last week, Musk claimed that slashing spending and downsizing the federal government is necessary to prevent the United States from going bankrupt. But even if financial retrenchment were the ultimate goal of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), it wouldn’t explain why Musk has singled out the C.F.P.B. In 2024, the agency’s budget was capped at $785.4 million, while total federal spending came to $6.75 trillion. A bit of long division shows that the proportion of spending devoted to the C.F.P.B. was roughly 0.01 per cent. If the agency’s entire budget were eliminated for an entire century, it would save about one per cent of the budget for a single year.

Warren and others have pointed out that Musk may well have a personal interest in defanging the C.F.P.B. Since taking over Twitter and changing its name to X, Musk has talked about transforming the platform into an “everything app” offering services like online banking and e-commerce. Last month, X announced a partnership with Visa to create X Money Account, which would enable its users to buy stuff online and make peer-to-peer payments. In theory, such a business could well attract the attention of the C.F.P.B., which has been expanding its authority over big online-payment systems. (...)

In some of her public appearances last week, Warren likened Musk’s attack on the C.F.P.B. to a bank robber disarming the alarms as he steps into the lobby. I asked her why so many elected Republicans who aren’t launching a new financial app are also eager to hobble the C.F.P.B. She offered two explanations. First, big banks have loathed the agency since even before it started operating, and they exercise a great deal of influence in the G.O.P. “The banks see themselves having a more profitable future if they can get rid of the C.F.P.B.,” she noted.

The other explanation has to do with ideology: Warren said that this was the heart of the matter. “Republicans have preached a gospel for years that government is always wrong; it’s always stupid; it never gets things right,” she reminded me. “The C.F.P.B. is living, breathing proof, every day, that we can make government work for regular people. That we can use government to level the playing field, so that students don’t get cheated on their education loans, or a family can take out a mortgage to buy a house without worrying there’s a trick back on page thirty-six that means they are going to lose the house in two years. That’s government working the way it should, and it really gets under the skins of the most extremist Republicans.”

by John Cassidy, New Yorker |  Read more:
Image: Anna Moneymaker/Getty
[ed. Well, this is a litmus test isn't it? If you're not a billionaire or 'too big to fail' bank, what could be more beneficial (and self-explanatory) than an agency created specifically to assure Consumer Financial Protection? If the CFPB gets permanently axed, which it looks like it will, then we're back to 2008 again with banks and other financial institutions fleecing 'consumers' (ie. you and me), with new fees, penalties and collection schemes. More fake bs about protecting the little guy.]

Technofossils
Image: Sarah Gabbott and Jan Zalasiewicz

Friday, February 21, 2025

Listen, Liberal: Why the Democrats Fear Populism

Thomas Frank, historian, journalist, and author of What’s the Matter with Kansas? and Listen, Liberal, joins us to dissect how Democrats abandoned populism, the rise of Trump’s faux-populism, and why the party refuses to embrace the working class. He also explores the path forward for authentic left-wing populism in the face of neoliberal failures. (Video version of this podcast is here.)
***
Nathan J. Robinson
People should pick up and buy your books because they never expire. But it is also depressing because it means that you are one of the most astute and least listened to people in the country.

Thomas Frank
But I've grown used to that. Nathan, when I was young, I had these ambitions that things might be otherwise. I used to feel bad about how nobody cared and nobody listened, but I don't care anymore.

Robinson
But Listen, Liberal even had the finger on the cover pointed straight at them, so they knew—they knew—who it was that had to listen. And you couldn't have worded that more directly, and the liberals didn't listen. Let me read it here from the last page of Listen, Liberal published in 2016, before the calamity of that year.
“Now all political parties are alliances of groups with disparate interests, but the contradictions of the Democratic Party coalition seem unusually sharp. The Democrats posture as the party of the people, even as they dedicate themselves everywhere, resolutely, to serving and glorifying the professional class. Worse, they combine self-righteousness and class privilege in a way that Americans find stomach turning. But every two years, they simply assume that being non-Republican is sufficient to rally the voters of the nation.”
Frank
Yes, and by the way, I wrote that before I even knew about Donald Trump.

Robinson
And here we go. You say, “this cannot go on,” but you make a prediction, and you say, “yet it will go on,” which I like, and it has gone on. As I say, you wrote this in 2016. That's a long time ago. And then we just saw a catastrophe that I think is partly caused by some of the problems that you identify in this book.

Frank
Yes, well, come on, this is the Democrats...What can I say? When I wrote that, it was a description of a life of disappointment at the hands of the Democratic Party, first Bill Clinton and then Barack Obama. I think Trump is mentioned once in the original version of the book. I later wrote an afterword, and I think I called him names or something. (...)

Robinson
Let's dive into what it was that you were identifying then more precisely. I read a paragraph that nicely summarizes it up, but let's go into a bit more detail about when you were pointing this finger directly into the face of the liberal and saying, listen, look, this is headed for catastrophe, and it's going to continue until you have a serious revelation. What would you describe as the revelation that was not had?

Frank
Well, this is a big question. What people often don't realize is that this is a long process. It's not just something that just happened. It's not Kamala Harris, it's not Hillary Clinton. They have a lot to answer for, but this is something that's been going on for a very long time. And steadily, but surely, the Democratic Party—they did this out in the open. It wasn't a conspiracy. They talked about it and boasted about it, gave speeches, wrote books and magazine articles about it, turned their back on what they used to be. When I was young, you would turn on the TV after each electoral disaster, like after Reagan had worked this incredible defeat. The one that really got me was when George Bush senior beat Michael Dukakis, where Dukakis had actually been in the lead in the polls. George Bush senior was this kind of awful man, and he won anyway.

And then you go on TV the day after, and the pundits would always say the same thing: the Democratic Party has to abandon the New Deal. They can no longer be the party of the New Deal. They would have these various terms for it, but one of the favorite ones was they have to become neoliberals. This was the big idea in the '70s and '80s. There are other names for it. They call themselves Atari Democrats. But the idea of it is they had to become the party of a social cohort, of a social class, that was identified with futureness. That sounds like bullshit, and nevertheless, it is true. They really did say these things in the '70s and '80s and into the '90s. And then finally they got their way. Here comes the New Democrats, Bill Clinton and his group, and he's speaking exactly the things that they've been describing, and lo and behold, hallelujah, he wins.

Robinson
It works. It's vindicated. It's true. They were right.

Frank
Yes, exactly. And that's how they take it. His election, and then especially his reelection, is our vindication from heaven that this is the right path, that this is the way to go. You identify yourself not with working people, but with the highly educated. They had these pet love names for them. They called them the learning class. I love that one because just so obnoxious. They called them the wired workers. These pet names for the group that they saw as a party of the left in a two-party system. What it has to do is to dedicate itself to this group of people. And they did what they did, and they did it deliberately. And you look at the works of Bill Clinton as president. He was a very consequential president. It's often forgotten nowadays, but he actually did things as president. It wasn't all just his chummy Arkansas— (...)

Robinson
...So, okay, Bill Clinton: how this all started with Bill Clinton?

Frank
Well, it started before him. There were predecessors. So it goes back, actually, to the McGovern years, when in '72, the Democratic Party deliberately wrote organized labor out of the party. They reorganized the way that the Party chose its presidential nominee, and along the way, they basically contrived to take all the power from organized labor, which used to be very closely associated with the Democratic Party. If you're old enough to remember, they were basically their party, and the McGovern people contrived to kick them out. They did it with the best of motives, let's put it that way. They did it with the best of motives, but they also did it with some pretty shitty motives.

And you go back and look at the literature of that campaign and of that moment, and they were already saying, we cannot be this party of labor. We have to be the party of enlightened professionals, of the kids coming out of Yale Law School. People were actually saying things like this at the time, and the Party has been working out of that theory ever since. What's funny is, I don't know too many people that have critiqued that theory. I think I can count them. This is me, I'm one of them. Listen, Liberal is one of those books. But there's maybe five others. It’s like it happened and nobody paid any attention to it, even though it was on TV. You had guys saying this nonsense on TV after every election. You had Bill Clinton boasting about it, but there were very few critiques of it. And now here we are. It's been allowed to run for 50 years.

Robinson
Like we were saying, Clinton seemed to prove that the theory worked electorally.

Frank
That was his promise. That was his magic. That's why they loved him. So the Wall Street Journal had this story like two days ago reminiscing about Clinton, and it's entirely about his manners, and he's a homey Arkansas folksy guy who can connect us with working people. And I'm like, wait, are we talking about the same guy that deregulated the banks? Are we talking about that guy? Is that the one? The friend of the working man who allowed Wall Street to become what it is today? That guy? And that is what they mean. It's funny how nobody can talk about the two things at the same time, his manners and what he actually did. Bill Clinton, who screwed working people in this monumental way with NAFTA and PNTR China and also the Bill Clinton who had that soft southern accent and was so lovable and liked to go to McDonald's.

Robinson
So I take it that you see the Trump victories as the culmination of a decades-long process whereby the Democrats abandoned the New Deal as the kind of exemplar of democratic aspirations, abandoned labor, and became something else that is often called neoliberalism or corporate liberalism.

Frank
Yes, they did that. This is what happened. And now, if you ask me, we're at the end of the road for this thing. You look at whose votes they win now, and it's entirely affluent people. (...)

But that's who the Democrats are. That's who they have wanted to be all these years. That's what they talked about becoming, and they got their wish. And here's the thing, Nathan, I don't know what power, what rebuke, what form of chastisement can convince them that this is a mistake. I don't know if anything can. Because it's such a self-flattering form of politics to believe that you're these wonderful people who are so enlightened and so tasteful. And what do you do when you lose? You scold. You scold the world.

Robinson
On the one hand, you can say clearly they're making a terrible mistake by not pushing policies that are going to help ordinary people. Clearly, ordinary people understand that Democrats are not pushing policies that will help them. They understand that they're out of touch. But also, there are structural reasons now why it's very hard for them to change. On the Kamala Harris campaign, it was interesting. She came out with this anti-price gouging policy that was kind of—

Frank
It was kind of good. And I never heard another word about it after the convention.

Robinson
Well, I have read that what happened is that her Uber executive brother-in-law gave her a phone call and said, Wall Street doesn't like this, you need to back off on it. And so they altered the policy, and they said, it's actually just groceries, and it's just an emergency, and it doesn't mean anything. So one of the problems here is that they can't listen. Because now, when you have to satisfy the donors, it doesn't matter if you know that what you're doing is wrong, and you're going to lose. They are now so dependent upon big money.

Frank
Yes, it's part of the machine. And that's an excellent point, and it makes it an even more depressing story. So I've been talking to different people over the last couple of days, and we argue about what they should do. All of those arguments are exactly, as you say, kind of moot, because they're not allowed to do the things that they need to do basically. For them to do these things would require some kind of political earthquake. Now, arguably, we just had that. But it can get worse for them. They can screw this up even more. (...)

Robinson
I'm trying to understand the distinction between the things that are mistakes and the things that are built into the party as it is, because of the process that you describe in terms of the changes in their constituencies.

Frank
Maybe I am totally wrong about this, but I think that their allergy to an open convention tells us something really important about these guys. I think their desire to avoid primaries tells us something really important about these guys, that they are desperate to stop certain voices from having a say in the way that candidates are chosen at all.

Robinson
When they had an open primary, Bernie terrified them, and they all had to come together and find someone to stop Bernie.

Frank
He might have a chance. If they had an open convention, they might choose someone like Elizabeth Warren. Who the hell knows? That might happen. Anything could happen. One of the really fascinating things about the Democratic Party is that, over the years, they have managed to keep a lid on it. The same bunch always wins. This is the Clinton/Obama faction that always comes out on top, and has, since Walter Mondale, always been the nominee, and they are determined to keep it that way. In some ways, it is their party. They own it in the same way that organized labor used to own it in the old days. It is their party. They're not going to give up. They're not going to surrender it. You can go and ask them for it. You can ask them very politely, Mr. Nathan Robinson, and they're not going to give it to you.

Robinson
Well, in a certain sense, then, Listen, Liberal looks like it's intended for the people who are causing the problem, but actually, it's intended for those of us who need to throw those people out of power.

Let me ask you how Joe Biden fits into the picture. There is a certain narrative that suggests that the Biden presidency was a sharp break from the neoliberal Democratic Party that you describe. Joe Biden obviously made a big effort to appear more pro union. He declared, I'm going to be the most pro-union president. In the first year, he said he wanted to be the next FDR, etc. Do you see that as entirely a fraud? Or is there something to that?

Frank
There is something to it. I think now everything that you and I are talking about has started to dawn on them. But back in the day, when I wrote Listen Liberal, I would say you could count the number of Democrats who agreed with me on one hand. There's like five of them. I could probably list them for you. Bernie is one. Sherrod Brown was one. But I think to a certain degree, Biden actually got it and did take the initial steps that you would take if you were going to try to put the party on a different course. He did. So look what he did on antitrust. That's probably the brightest spot of his administration. He did inspiring things. And this is stuff that I had once called for. I used to write articles about this back in the day, about how the Democratic Party needs to break with the sort of Clinton legacy on antitrust, and they need to get tough on this again because it's one tool where you don't need Congress. The laws were passed over 100 years ago. You just have to start enforcing them. And I'll be goddamned, he did it. I was very excited about that.

You mentioned Lina Khan earlier. I think she's exactly the kind of person that they should have running federal agencies. That is exactly what they should have been doing. Now, that said, with everything you described, these are tiny, tiny steps in the right direction, but they're massively overshadowed by the other things: by the Gaza disaster, by inflation, by Biden's age issue. In some ways, I think the Biden years are a kind of tragedy. This is a guy who seemed to understand it to some degree, and then who the hell knows what happened? Well, we still don't know.

Robinson
There's something very strange to me where you're indicating there that Biden started to get some hint that maybe you should do these things that actually deliver for people. Bernie Sanders understands this intuitively and has understood it forever, and it strikes me every time I see—I like looking at the comments section. And comment sections are a cesspool, but they give you an interesting indication of how people respond to things. And so when you watch Bernie Sanders on Joe Rogan or on Fox News, and you look at the comments section of the people who are the typical audience for those kinds of things, and when you go out and talk to normal people, and you say, what do you think of Bernie Sanders? They say, well, I'm a Republican, but I always respect Bernie. He tells it to you straight, every single time. The Bernie Sanders theory of how you reach people and what a social democrat should look like, and all of this stuff you're saying about how you just need to be like an honest, plainspoken New Deal Democrat who offers to help people and doesn't lie to them, is really intuitive.

Frank
In some ways, Bernie is this reassuring figure from long ago. He's selling politics from the 1940s in a 1940s accent. I really like that guy. (...)

Robinson
You recently wrote this op-ed for the New York Times after the election. You've been writing about these things for 20 years, and you say,
“I began to doubt that any combination of financial disaster or electoral chastisement will ever turn on the light bulb for liberals. I fear that '90s style centrism will march on.”
And in this election, we saw a worsening of the tendencies that you describe, where it's even more rich people voting for Democrats and even more working-class people going into the Trump coalition. But of course, ultimately, Trump is a fraudster. You write about the history of populism, and left and right populism are not the same thing.

Frank
You asked three different things there. So first of all, about the idea that centrism is not really centrism at all but this sort of Clintonism that we were talking about at the beginning of the show, this philosophy that the Democrats developed through the '70s, '80s, and '90s, that absolutely and utterly controls the party now. And I said in the article—I think the Times cut this line out because, obviously, they have house style, and you're not allowed to say certain things. But I said this philosophy will go on because it makes too much pundit sense. It's too obviously true to the professional elite of our world, the people who control our world. It's too obviously true even though it's false. Even though it's completely wrong, it's too flattering to the kind of people who write columns in the New York Times, to the kind of people that are on MSNBC, the kind of people who run American universities, foundations, and Wall Street firms. It makes too much sense. They're like, yes, the learning class should be in charge. Yes, the intellectuals, the elites, or the people who have advanced degrees should be in charge. That's why they call it an advanced degree. That's why they call it Yale.

Robinson
We are seeing this class realignment. You point out the neighborhood that you grew up in went from Republican to Democrat, and people who used to be Democrats and working class are now Republicans. Even Latinos in South Texas are starting to vote for Donald Trump in larger numbers. But it's not like we're going to see the Republicans embracing New Deal style, authentic populism.

Frank
Well, they talk about it, don't they? They make those noises.

Robinson
Right. But then Trump gets into office, and everyone's anti-labor.

Frank
And he cuts your taxes and puts the oil man in charge of the EPA, or whatever the hell it is. Nathan, we talked about how much fun it is to write and everything. You've sort of teased me because it's very frustrating that nobody listens. And this is one where I am just banging my head against a wall. I'm from Kansas. Populism means something there. It was a movement that we had in Kansas. It's a well-known thing. Even if people don't know the details, they know that it existed. They know what it was, roughly. It was a left-wing farmer labor movement a long time ago that swept over the state and then disappeared. Everybody knows those basic facts. When I was in graduate school, I decided it would be my subject. I would study it, and I did. I studied it for several years, and then I gave up on it because everybody was writing about populism back then.

This is in the '80s. Everybody was writing about populism. It just felt pointless to add another monograph on top of this already gigantic pile of essays and books about American populism, but it's always been the motif of my political writing. In addition to it being important because I come from Kansas, populism is also important because it's the beginning of the modern left in American life. This is literally where it starts, with the Populist Party. They're the first ones to actually start calling for a regulated economy, nationalization of things, votes for women, among other things. To basically formulate economic policy in the interests of ordinary people rather than in the interest of big business. That was unthinkable at the time. That was revolutionary. It was absolutely new, and it was shocking, and they were more or less beaten down.

But it was also the beginning, and it later grew and flowered into what we know as the New Deal and the Roosevelt administration. And this became what the Democratic Party was about, up to Lyndon Johnson. Johnson's grandfather, by the way, was an actual uppercase “P” Populist in the Texas Legislature. It's neither here nor there, but this is the backdrop of everything that I know about American politics. In What's the Matter with Kansas?, I was describing the people who were once the rank-and-file of populism being drawn over to the other side, and that it was being done with language that sounded populist.

So this is an important distinction. It feels like I've lost it here, but it's fake populism. So the Republicans use populist language all the time. You go back to Reagan. They did it with George W. Bush, and this is one of the reasons he annoyed me so much. They did it all the time, but they always did it in a cultural sense. You might remember George W. Bush with his pork rinds and touring the country with the country singers. This crap. And Reagan was very good at doing this act as well, but it's always an act. At some point, I lost control of this, and people just started calling it right-wing populism, and they started using the word populist as a synonym for racist, and then they started using the word populist as a synonym for fascist. (...)

There are consequences for it, and the consequences are what we see around us. When you say that populism is actually fascism and racism, you have made this whole species of politics off limits to yourself. And it's a species of politics, frankly, that we have to have if we're ever going to get out of this. (...)

Robinson
... You have a passage in your New York Times op-ed where you say, “can anything reverse it?”

And you say, “only a resolute determination by the Democratic Party to rededicate itself to the majoritarian vision of old, a great society of broad, inclusive prosperity. That means universal health care, higher minimum wage, robust financial regulation, antitrust enforcement, unions, welfare state, higher taxes on billionaires, even the cool ones. And it means, above all, liberalism as a social movement, as a coming together of ordinary people,” not, as you've just said, a series of top-down reforms by well-meaning professionals. (...)

Frank
Okay, let's look at these people in Listen, Liberal: “New Democrats,” the neoliberals before them. They did it. They conquered the party. The party is a site of contestation, as we were saying earlier. This is one of the reasons they always stave off the contest. They always manage to suppress the contest or to rig it in some way. You look at what happened to Bernie Sanders in 2020 or in 2016. With an open convention, no thanks.

But parties are contested, and it has been done in our lifetimes. There has been a group that took over the Democratic Party and remade it in their own image. Now they've clung very tightly to the levers of power ever since, and nobody has a plan for how to get them out of there. But that doesn't mean you couldn't dream one up. You could do it.

The other way is economic catastrophe in the manner of the New Deal. Nobody knew what Franklin Roosevelt was going to do. They just knew that he was the man of the moment, and he was able to completely remake the world as he saw fit. Now, the problem with this theory is we had that chance. That was 2008. That actually happened. And we did that, and we elected a man. If you're anything like I was, drinking the hope Kool-Aid back then—I went for Obama in a big way. I thought he was the man for the moment. I thought he was our generation's Franklin Roosevelt. I was completely wrong. And instead, he proceeded to enshrine this sort of neoliberal agenda.

by Nathan J. Robinson and Thomas Frank,  Current Affairs  |  Read more:
Image: uncredited

Thursday, February 20, 2025

Kessler Syndrome

Kessler Syndrome
Images: NASA
[ed. Add another 300 in 2025. Musk's Starlink/SpaceX program already has 6,957 in operation. Bezo's Kuiper project proposes to add 3,332 more.]

The Kessler syndrome, also known as the Kessler effect, collisional cascading, or ablation cascade, is a scenario proposed by NASA scientists Donald J. Kessler and Burton G. Cour-Palais in 1978. It describes a situation in which the density of objects in low Earth orbit (LEO) becomes so high due to space pollution that collisions between these objects cascade, exponentially increasing the amount of space debris over time. This proliferation of debris poses significant risks to satellites, space missions, and the International Space Station, potentially rendering certain orbital regions unusable and threatening the sustainability of space activities for many generations. In 2009, Kessler wrote that modeling results indicated the debris environment had already become unstable, meaning that efforts to achieve a growth-free small debris environment by eliminating past debris sources would likely fail because fragments from future collisions would accumulate faster than atmospheric drag could remove them. The Kessler syndrome underscores the critical need for effective space traffic management and collision avoidance strategies to ensure the long-term viability of space exploration and utilization.

What Did the War in Gaza Reveal About American Judaism?

Peter Beinart on the story of Israel and the moral blind spot of the Jewish diaspora.

In a new book, “Being Jewish After the Destruction of Gaza: A Reckoning,” Peter Beinart argues that many American Jews who defend Israel have lost their moral bearings. He makes the case, in a series of linked essays, that Jews in America and around the world should push for a single state comprising Israel and the Palestinian territories which grants everyone equal rights. “This book is about the story Jews tell ourselves to block out the screams,” Beinart writes. “It’s about the story that enables our leaders, our families, and our friends to watch the destruction of the Gaza Strip—­the flattening of universities, the people forced to make bread from hay, the children freezing to death under buildings turned to rubble by a state that speaks in our name—­and shrug, if not applaud.”

I recently spoke by phone with Beinart, whom I met almost twenty years ago when I went to work for The New Republic. (...) During our conversation, which has been edited for length and clarity, we discussed what he misjudged about the U.S.’s unwillingness to change its relationship to Israel, whether a one-state solution is really a more likely alternative than two states living side by side, and how debates over Israel have warped conversations about antisemitism in America.

There was hope about a decade ago among people like yourself that American Jews—especially younger ones—were moving away from ironclad support for Israel. Do you feel surprised or disappointed by the degree to which the United States, and even the Democratic Party, seems to have not moved in that direction after October 7th?

I think I probably underestimated the degree to which, even inside the Democratic Party, politicians could remain unresponsive to shifts in public opinion, because they don’t really face much of a cost. There are other forces that just matter more than public opinion.

Which are?

Well, the role of money in politics is a really, really big one. And I think that was especially true for Joe Biden, because he didn’t have the capacity to raise money from the public at large. He wasn’t a Bernie Sanders or a Barack Obama who could raise large amounts of money from small donations. It’s also a problem for members of Congress. Except for a small handful of celebrity members, they are not national figures who can raise enough money that they can compete with an organization like AIPAC if AIPAC decides to target them.

But I think there is a danger in focussing too exclusively on money. Money plays a role in this, but there’s also a deep way in which the Israeli story is one that’s very resonant to many Americans, because it’s so similar to the American story. It’s a promised land forged on a hostile frontier. And the more invested you are in America’s own founding myth, the more you’re going to find Israel’s founding myth appealing. I think a lot of people in the Republican Party, even if there was no campaign financing at stake, find this narrative very, very powerful. And Israel, in some ways, is a vision of what they would like America to be, which is a country that’s more nationalistic, more militaristic, has stronger border protection, and has clear hierarchies based on ethnicity and religion.

As Edward Said famously said, Palestinians still lack permission to narrate. Their story is in some ways a threatening story to America’s founding myth. When you start using phrases like “settler colonialism,” it doesn’t take much for Americans, especially white Americans, to get uncomfortable. And beyond that, October 7th was a horror. It was a horrifying event. And so there was a natural desire to express sympathy and solidarity with Israeli Jews in this moment of incredible trauma. And then the Israeli government says, “O.K., you want to show you care about Israeli Jews? Then support us in destroying the Gaza Strip.” It was a little bit like a post-9/11 moment, when it was very difficult in the public discourse to distinguish between the act of horror—what had happened, and empathy for the victims—and a policy response, which was just disastrous.

Why was the Biden Administration so unwilling to really do anything to sanction Israel or to try to stop its behavior?

If you come up in Washington politics and policy circles, you become accustomed to a template for how you deal with Israel. And that template is generally to avoid public fights, because those are not going to go well for you. And I think the people in the Biden Administration remember the Obama Administration. I will never forget the moment when, after Obama basically gave a speech about how there should be a Palestinian state near 1967 lines, Harry Reid, the Democratic leader of the Senate, went before AIPAC and threw Obama under the bus.

If you’re in Washington for a long time, you almost turn off a part of your brain when it comes to the question of Israel and Palestine. You just take the safest political route and you block out some of your human responses to what actually happens to Palestinians. You just become so accustomed to basically just looking away and rationalizing and not doing anything. I think folks in the Biden Administration underestimated the degree to which ordinary progressive Americans who had not undergone that kind of acculturation would simply look at what was happening in the age of social media and say, What the fuck? Why are we supporting this? And they underestimated the degree to which Gaza mattered for American progressives.

One of the things you say in your book is that many American Jews responded differently to this war than they would have if any other country had done what Israel did to Gaza. How do you understand that now?

Well, for most American Jews, it’s not just another country, right? It’s a country that we have been raised to see as deeply, intimately, connected to us, as a central part of our story—our story of genocide and survival and rebirth. And it’s a story of pride and safety. The Jewish tradition has this kind of metaphor of family running through it, this kind of imagined family. Imagine if you start getting pieces of evidence that members of your family are doing terrible, terrible things, right? That’s very painful to acknowledge. Plus, you recognize that generally people in a family don’t take kindly to those members of the family who start saying, “Hey, we’re doing horrible things.”

And this leads to the way the organized American Jewish community really functions. Whatever Israel does, they come up with some post-hoc justification. “It’s Hamas’s fault because it’s using human shields. It’s the people in Gaza’s fault because they voted for Hamas. The numbers are a lie—you can’t trust them.” (...)

What changed your thinking about the need for a one-state solution versus a two-state solution?

I spent my whole adult life as a supporter of the two-state solution, of partition. I think two things changed. The first was just the recognition that I was arguing the same position year after year after year. And facts on the ground were changing, right? Every year, Israel was more deeply entrenching itself in the West Bank, which would be the heartland of a Palestinian state. And the chances of a Palestinian state that could ever really be sovereign and contiguous were becoming harder and harder to imagine. I found an article from someone saying the two-state solution was almost dead. It was Anthony Lewis writing a column headlined “Five Minutes to Midnight”in the New York Times, in 1982, when there were maybe not even a hundred thousand settlers in the West Bank. Now there are seven hundred thousand if you include East Jerusalem.

It was actually a Palestinian interlocutor, I remember, who said, “Peter, something can’t be perpetually dying. At a certain point, it’s dead. And you have to be willing to think about alternatives.” And, when I started to think about alternatives, I came to the conclusion that this principle that Jews and Palestinians should live under the same law in one political territory—this idea is considered so radical and outlandish, if not downright antisemitic, in American political discourse. But it’s actually the principle that, as a general rule, we tend to think is the right principle for most countries, including our own. And I was struck by political-science literature that suggests that in divided societies, things tend to be a lot more peaceful when everyone has a voice in government.

If you support a two-state solution because you want to maintain Israel as a Jewish state, that means that Jews will rule, that Jews are going to be the vast majority of the population or at least the vast majority of the population that can vote. You are in an ethno-nationalist framework. I think I probably became more aware of how uncomfortable that was when I started listening to Tucker Carlson speaking that way about the United States. Because it is the discourse of the ethno-nationalist right in the United States and in Europe, that basically countries should be ruled by members of one tribe and everybody else is a guest in the country. I began to be more uncomfortable with making an exception to this principle for a Jewish state. Especially because I noticed that that exception didn’t stay in Israel, because Israel had been a bright shining example for every ethno-nationalist who wanted to make their own country attack the principle of equality under the law. I’m thinking of people like Viktor Orbán in Hungary, Marine Le Pen in France, the AfD in Germany, Narendra Modi in India.

At one level, the question could be framed as whether Israel should give equal rights to everyone it rules over. And that seems hard, for me at least, to argue with. But that’s a little different from saying, “My long-term solution to the problem is that these people live in one democratic state together rather than in two partitioned, hopefully democratic states.” I agree that a two-state solution seems almost dead. But especially after October 7th and Gaza, isn’t a one-state solution even less likely?

Both of them at this point are completely unrealistic. What is realistic is that Israel maintains permanent control over millions of Palestinians who lack basic rights and, indeed, moves toward the destruction of the Palestinian people through active expulsion and death. If you had to put a gun to my head and ask me what I think is the most realistic likelihood that we will see over the coming decades and generations, it would be what I would call an American-style solution to the Palestinian question. By which I mean the nineteenth-century American solution to Native Americans. You just continue this process and it grinds away without restraint until basically the population is destroyed as a functioning political entity.

I think we’re in the process of seeing that play out. The question to me is what force in the world could be powerful enough to stop that and to create a different reality? To me, it seems like there would need to be a mass movement of people all around the world in the tradition of the anti-apartheid movement and the civil-rights movement. It’s the power and strength of that movement that really matters. And I think that movement almost inevitably has to be a movement about human equality and freedom. It can’t have the moral power it needs if it’s about partitioning into competing ethno-nationalist states. I think a movement is going to be more powerful if it is built around the principle of equality rather than the principle of partition.

But what about the people within Israel and Palestine? Do you think they want to live together?

There was a vote last year in the Knesset on two states and not a single member of a Jewish political party in Israel voted yes. So that’s Israeli discourse. It’s basically the center is pro-status quo, and the right is pro-expulsion. Among Palestinians, I think that there was historically a desire for one equal state, what was sometimes called the secular democratic Palestine. That was the P.L.O. position.

Then there was this shift in 1988 where the P.L.O. accepted the idea of a partition. And the truth is now we don’t really know, because there’s no democratic process that exists among Palestinians for them to express their political views. Most popular Palestinian leaders are in jail. There are no elections in the West Bank or Gaza. And so I guess one of the things that I should acknowledge about this conversation is that my own view about this has to be deeply informed by what Palestinians want. They’re the group of people who lack rights. The way in which they want their rights to be vindicated is crucially important.

And so as a process matter, it’s really, really important that we support mechanisms by which Palestinians can actually create a legitimate political process to reflect on these questions of one versus two states. If we see some kind of legitimate process in which Palestinians say, No, no, we still really want to commit to the idea of two states, it’s kind of silly at that point for me to be more Catholic than the Pope. But I don’t think we have that process. And when I listen to what we have in the absence, which is the Palestinian public discussion that one hears in the United States, or around the world, I think the current has clearly moved toward the idea of equality and historical justice in one space. And so, I think I’m partly responding to that.

In the book, you talk about the degree to which American Jews are blamed for things that Israel does and how that is of course antisemitism. And also how many American Jews view any criticism of Israel as antisemitic. You and I can sit here and say, Well, that’s absurd. But when you hear Jews say that the phrase “from the river to the sea,” for example, is antisemitic, does any part of you want to defer to people who might feel that way, even if you might disagree on the substance? How do you wrestle with the idea, which we have heard more of in the last decade, that minority groups should broadly get to decide what they consider offensive?

Yeah, so the first thing is when people claim that only Black people get to determine what constitutes anti-Black racism or only trans people get to determine what constitutes transphobia, I sometimes think, What country do they think we’re living in? Donald Trump just outlawed D.E.I. The idea that those minority groups, or historically disadvantaged groups, have complete power to determine the discourse is nonsense.

I know it’s not how America functions in 2025, but it’s definitely how a lot of people attuned to bigotry wish it functioned. To me the question is whether, generically speaking, one should be using terms that many people use in a bigoted way even if you don’t mean it that way.

First of all, I don’t like the idea that basically only members of one ethnic, racial, religious group should have a monopoly on defining what discrimination means, whether they’re Black or whether they’re L.G.B.T., whatever. First of all, because it quashes the diversity that exists within every community, right? There is political diversity in every community. Just because people have the same identity status doesn’t mean they all see the world in the same way. And that’s especially true for Jews. As you know, there’s a very profound division among American Jews now on some pretty basic questions related to Israel. And you see it most strongly among younger American Jews, where you find polling which shows that maybe not a majority, but very large minorities of American Jews think Israel is an apartheid state and that, depending on how you ask it, many of them have very serious concerns about Zionism.

So the irony becomes that when you paint Jews as monolithic and say, basically, that anti-Zionism constitutes antisemitism, the way that plays out on college campuses is that a bunch of the students who then get suspended and disciplined are Jews. You get this absurd situation where Jewish Voice for Peace is suspended at Columbia. And the Anti-Defamation League congratulates the president for keeping Jews safe. Well, not those Jews, right?

Let’s say that you think Black people should get to define what constitutes anti-Black racism, so Jews should get to define what constitutes antisemitism as it relates to Palestinians. The problem with this is that the relationship between Jews and Palestinians is not the same as the relationship between white and Black people. Palestinians are not the historically superior group that have ruled over Jews for generations. They’re the group that, in Israel-Palestine, is legally subordinate and that the United States has basically marginalized from public discussion. So when you say that Palestinian discourse, which tends to be anti-Zionist, should be deemed antisemitic because a lot of Jews find it antisemitic, you’re completely erasing the Palestinian experience. And what you end up doing is basically silencing Palestinians and not allowing them to speak about their experience.

by Isaac Chotiner, New Yorker | Read more:
Image: Michael M. Santiago

Wednesday, February 19, 2025

Never Gamble With Strangers

[ed. Will be in LV later this month (but definitely not playing cards).]

Carly Simon

[ed. She reportedly suffered from near debilitating stage fright, which makes this performance all the more impressive.]

Tuesday, February 18, 2025

National Nature Assessment Goes On

After President Donald Trump canceled a report on the state of nature in the United States, the scientists working on it — many from the Seattle area — say they’ll continue their work and build on it.

The report, announced by President Joe Biden during a visit to Seattle’s Seward Park on Earth Day in 2022, was intended to be the country’s first nationwide assessment of the state of nature.

In all, more than 150 scientists were at work on the assessment across the country — and they had nearly completed the first draft of their work. Then Phil Levin, professor of practice in the University of Washington College of the Environment, and the national director for the report, was informed shortly after Trump took office that the assessment was being terminated.

He said he got the news indirectly, and without explanation other than the one he was required to send to project participants: “ … as called for in the Executive Order Unleashing American Energy, released on January 20, 2025, we are discontinuing the work on the National Nature Assessment.”

Trump’s order was a broadside against a wide range of green energy and environmental initiatives under the Biden Administration and a sweeping directive to achieve American dominance in mining, energy extraction and facilities such as pipelines.

Levin sent that email as directed. Then sent another — this time from his personal account:

” … Yes, this is disappointing. Yes, this is frustrating. However, it is not unexpected. Therefore, I am moving on from those emotions to see opportunity in this challenge. This work is too important to die … And so, inspired by Lenny Kravitz (1991): I say, “It ain’t over ’til [we say] it’s over.”

In the works now is completion of a new report. It will still be comprehensive, peer-reviewed, and the first report of its kind. Originally scheduled to be released in 2026, the report will still make that deadline, Levin said, or maybe even beat it, now that every chapter doesn’t have to be cleared by a government agency. (...)

The report is not just a species count; it takes stock of biodiversity and species, but there also are chapters on nature and the economy, bright spots in conservation and restoration, environmental justice and equity, nature and climate change, and even nature and cultural heritage, delving into people’s perception and understanding and value for the natural world.

Levin said he has been amazed at the outpouring of support to continue the work. After a story on the ordered cancellation ran in The New York Times, his University of Washington inbox was stuffed with hundreds of emails, Levin said. Many publishers have since stepped forward, interested to bring out the report, as have academic journals, wanting to publish portions of the report within their discipline. Copy editors, artists and others have volunteered to help.

The assessment was authorized as part of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, created by Congress in 1990 to assist the nation and world in understanding, assessing, predicting and responding to human-induced and natural processes of global change. The first National Nature Assessment was intended to examine the status, observed trends and future projections of America’s lands, waters, wildlife, biodiversity and ecosystems and the benefits they provide, including connections to the economy, public health, equity, climate mitigation and adaptation, and national security.

An outline of the report has already been published in the Federal Register.

“It’s a different game, but the overall project remains the same,” Levin said, “to really think about the status and trends and what the future looks like for American nature and why it matters in people’s lives today.” (...)

Josh Lawler, a professor of environmental and forest sciences at the University of Washington, is an author on the chapter about frameworks and approaches. It’s crucial the assessment still be published, he said, because it will help people understand what we get from the natural world, how we depend on it, and what state it is in. “It’s like going to the doctor,” he said of the assessment. After all, “We do depend on these natural systems for our survival.”

by Lynda V. Mapes, Seattle Times |  Read more:
Image: Ivy Ceballo
[ed. Heros of the day.]

Deconstructed Wonton Soup

I’ve never met a wonton soup I didn’t love. A bowl (or plastic takeout container, more often than not) of succulent dumplings suspended in a savory, salty broth is reliable comfort. My friend Abbe described the dish as “a dumpling giving you a warm hug,” which is why it’s one of my go-tos when I’m under the weather. But it’s much more than just something I crave when I’m sick — wonton soup is delicious any time.

Any food that involves a flavorful filling wrapped in some sort of dough — gyoza, pierogi, samosas, mandu, empanadas, ravioli, etc. — immediately piques my interest. Something about these little parcels really embodies the gifts they resemble. But wrapping each present can take time, typically more than I have to spend on weeknight dinner, and that time increases with a lack of experience. That’s why I was so intrigued when I first saw a video for a deconstructed wonton soup. (...)

“Deconstruction” can mean different things in the world of gastronomy. Seattle Met senior writer Kathryn Robinson defined it as “breaking a classic dish down to its component parts — then reimagining from there. Sometimes it means recombining. Sometimes not combining. Sometimes recasting ingredients in clever ways.”

In fine-dining circles, the adjective can be a synonym for overcomplicated plates or more artistic interpretations. In this instance, fussiness is nowhere to be found. Instead, deconstruction is all about streamlining the dish to make it easier to prepare at home. Store-bought wonton wrappers are cut into strips that end up resembling hand-pulled noodles, and ground pork seasoned with soy sauce, scallions, toasted sesame oil and sugar is shaped into meatballs. (One could argue that “unconstructed” is a better descriptor since you skip the step of folding and sealing the wontons entirely.)

Bowls of juicy meatballs, slippery noodles and baby bok choy (for added nutrition) in a ginger-scented chicken broth or stock that’s ready in about 40 minutes? Sounds like a winning combination to me. Sure, there aren’t any little “pockets of happy,” as my other friend Anne described traditional wonton soup, but all the flavors are there, and the time saved is well worth their absence. Finish each bowl with a spoonful of chili crisp and a drizzle of more toasted sesame oil and you won’t even miss the wontons.

Deconstructed Wonton Soup

Adapted from Cook’s Country
Total time: 40 minutes
Servings: 6 (makes about 10 cups)
This recipe delivers all the flavors of wonton soup without the trouble of making the dumplings. Instead, the filling is formed into meatballs and store-bought wonton wrappers are cut into strips to form noodles. Drizzle each bowl with chili crisp and toasted sesame oil for extra punch and flavor.
Make ahead: The meatballs can be formed, covered and refrigerated up to 24 hours in advance.
Storage: Refrigerate for up to 3 days.
Where to buy: Wonton wrappers can be found at Asian markets and well-stocked supermarkets.

INGREDIENTS
1 pound ground pork
4 scallions, thinly sliced, divided
1 large egg, lightly beaten
4 teaspoons grated or minced fresh ginger, divided
1 tablespoon soy sauce or tamari, preferably reduced-sodium, plus more as needed
1 tablespoon toasted sesame oil, plus more for serving
1 teaspoon granulated sugar
½ teaspoon fine salt
8 cups no-salt-added or low-sodium chicken stock or broth
6 heads baby bok choy (1½ pounds total), halved or quartered, if large, and cut into 1-inch pieces
8 ounces wonton wrappers, defrosted if frozen, cut into roughly 1-inch-wide strips
Chili crisp, for serving

STEPS
Set a sheet pan or platter as well as a bowl of water near your workspace. In a large bowl, use your hands to gently mix the pork, three-quarters of the scallions, the egg, 2 teaspoons of the ginger, the soy sauce or tamari, sesame oil, sugar and salt until evenly combined. (The mixture will be a little loose.) Use a small cookie scoop or 1-tablespoon measuring spoon to form the mixture into 1½-tablespoon portions about 1 inch in diameter. Use damp hands to gently roll the portions into balls, and arrange on the prepared sheet pan or platter, rewetting your hands as needed. (You should have about 24 meatballs.)

Set a large Dutch oven or other heavy-bottomed pot over medium-high heat, add the stock or broth and the remaining 2 teaspoons of ginger, and bring to a boil. Add the bok choy, return the liquid to a boil, then stir in the wonton wrappers, a handful at a time, separating them as you work so they don’t stick together.

Carefully add the meatballs to the pot; cover and cook until the meatballs are cooked through, about 5 minutes. Stir in the remaining scallions. Taste, and season with soy sauce, as desired. Ladle the soup into bowls and serve hot, with a spoonful of chili crisp and a drizzle of sesame oil.

Substitutions: Ground pork: another ground meat or plant-based alternative. Scallions: shallots or yellow onion. Allergic to sesame oil? Omit it. Granulated sugar: other types of sugar. Chicken stock or broth: vegetable stock or broth. Baby bok choy: spinach, chard or cabbage. Chili crisp: sriracha, chili-garlic sauce or other hot sauce.

by Aaron Hutcherson, Washington Post/Seattle Times |  Read more:
Images: Peggy Cormary and Carolyn Robb
[ed. I know this is all about expediency, but wrapping the fillings is not that time consuming after you've made the mix. And worth it, I think (for those little 'pillows of happiness' or whatever). Plus, throw a few in hot oil and you've got crispy wontons.]

Monday, February 17, 2025


Aki Sogabe
via: (and here)

Bo Burnham


The whole world at your fingеrtips, the ocean at your door
The livе-action Lion King, the Pepsi Halftime Show
Twenty-thousand years of this, seven more to go
Carpool Karaoke, Steve Aoki, Logan Paul
A gift shop at the gun range, a mass shooting at the mall...

Tired of Losing

In a sleepy Washington state beach town roughly five miles from the U.S.–Canada border, you’ll find Birch Bay Storage. Last December, my mom, 64, reached out her car window to punch in a code that opened the electric gate. She was reluctant to unlock her unit, sensing that something she cherished was crushed under heavy boxes and Rubbermaid bins. In the dark recesses, I could see items precariously stacked 14 feet high.

Next to a couch tipped on its side, she showed me a landscape painting by my grandmother. She found a broken frame that she planned to fix. She put both items in the back car seat along with a kid-sized plastic Santa. When I asked why she couldn’t use the trunk, she told me it was full. Just like her closets and garage were also full. She pulled out a cracked plastic bin filled with charred pots and pans and a random bag of marshmallows from the early aughts. Another bin contained just tank tops. “Why did I think I needed that many tank tops?” she laughed. (...)

In the U.S., there are an estimated 52,000 self-storage facilities, covering 2.1 billion square feet‍—‍enough for 6 to 7 square feet for every American. The self-storage market is expected to be worth $50 billion by 2029. The industry itself is the perfect union—a service that fulfills a human need and a growth investment that can thrive during historical shifts, such as the dot-com boom and bust, the Great Recession, and COVID-19. One recent survey found that 38 percent of Americans use self-storage, spending an average of between $75 and $185 month, usually due to one of the four Ds: death, divorce, dislocation, and a disputed fourth D, which toggles between disaster and downsizing, depending on the source. (...)

In 1994, my mom signed the paperwork for her first unit with Birch Bay Storage. She had lost my father to brain cancer in 1991. A 31-year-old widow with three girls under age 11, my mom moved from Seattle to Birch Bay, where she met my stepfather. In 1992, she got a divorce when it was clear he was dependent on drugs and alcohol. “I had to be very sneaky,” she told me, in order to maintain full custody of my newborn sister. The need for a second storage unit arose when we moved and continued moving for six years.

Over the phone, my mom explained that the early ’90s were like a “dark alley” she didn’t want to wander down. Together, we tried assembling a timeline of the places we’d lived: a tent, a hotel room, with family members, and in rentals in several cities in Washington state. Those years were about survival—an effort to escape another D that could be added to the reasons people rent storage units: domestic abuse. (Women are more likely to have units than men.) Despite a restraining order, my stepdad always found out where we were staying and maintained an unyielding presence in our lives until he died in 1997. By that point, we’d returned to Birch Bay, attempting to regain stability after moving seven times.

The Great Recession was really the inflection point that proved the storage industry could thrive amid an economic tailspin. In late 2009, more than 15 million people were unemployed. That same year, foreclosure filings hit a record high of nearly 4 million homes lost. Between 2007 and 2009, family homelessness rose by 30 percent, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Americans didn’t simply have too much stuff and nowhere to put it: People had lived through the worst financial disaster since the Great Depression, and many had nowhere to go.

Where the housing market was in sharp decline, the self-storage industry was the one area of Real Estate Investment Trusts—investments sold on the stock exchange—that were delivering growth, with 5 percent return during an economic nosedive for housing values. While people may have been forced to rent, move into smaller places, or live with family, they didn’t want to give up all they owned.

And if people could no longer afford to pay the cost of storage, the facilities could always hold an auction. Shows like Auction Hunters, Storage Hunters, and Storage Wars began to personify the old saying “one man’s trash is another man’s treasure”—except with objects of value, monetary or sentimental, on the line.

I assumed that because my family was already low-income, we’d somehow weather the storm, just as we always had. I was wrong. In 2009, my mom filed for Chapter 13 bankruptcy.

In 2012, after missing three mortgage payments, she was encouraged to do a short sale by her bank, Washington Mutual, a subprime-mortgage pusher and the largest bank to fail in U.S. history. She was offered roughly $4,000 to walk away from a property—worth $350,000 today—to avoid foreclosure. She owed over $5,000 in missed payments, and without the ability to make the full payment, she didn’t feel she had a choice. That year, she rented two more storage units for a total of four.

Two impulses pushed my mom’s habit beyond clutter: ordering things online and saving everything because each item held a memory, a meaning, a story. Two lamps weren’t just two lamps, but the best outing she spent antiquing with my grandmother before she passed away from Alzheimer’s disease. Two oak chairs weren’t just two oak chairs, but beautiful 100-year-old antiques my dad carefully refurbished and nicknamed “Grandma” and “Grandpa.” When one of the chairs was damaged in storage, she was deeply hurt. Already knowing the answer, I asked her if she threw it out. She replied knowingly: “Me, throw anything out?”

Storage provided a place to keep things at a safe distance from familial judgment. After six years of renting four storage units, my mom finally narrowed it down to one. Or at least that’s what I thought. When I visited that storage unit in Birch Bay last year, I learned that there was a second. “Don’t be mad,” she said. “I have a big one and a little one.” By that point, I’d learned to have more compassion—storage wasn’t just a space the size of a room, it was a fixture “always there … it’s always on my mind,” she said. (...)

As of 2024, the monthly storage facility occupancy rate remains high at around 84 percent. For the many individual business owners who operate more than half of the country’s facilities, new technology has allowed for fewer employees, and self-storage is easy money thanks to the most basic truth: After people move stuff into storage, it’s a pain to move out.

Between 2020 and 2021, it became clear that the self-storage industry was not only “recession-proof.” Extra Space Storage Inc. and Public Storage were 97 percent full during the pandemic, according to the Wall Street Journal. The same four Ds applied: death, divorce, dislocation, and disaster/downsizing.

But there are other reasons people need storage. Many homeowners association rules forbid boats and RVs in driveways and side yards. As summer approaches, I’m bombarded with emails about student storage discounts (despite no longer being a student). Year-round housing isn’t standard practice, which leaves students facing housing insecurity with nowhere to go. (...)

The cost of dislocation is very real. Unless people start making the connection between a lack of affordable housing and storage use, it’s not likely the narrative will shift from an overconsumption issue to an inequity issue.

When I visited Birch Bay again in July, my mom and I sat down at the kitchen island and calculated how much she’d spent on storage fees since 1994. When I finally did the math, I reminded her that I was in nearly six figures of student debt and was in no position to judge. Self-storage had cost her approximately $106,000, a staggering amount considering that since 1991, my mom has mostly relied on an annuity from my dad’s death that brought in roughly $12,000 annually.

I struggled to reconcile that the money my mom put toward storage fees could have been enough for another down payment on a house. But I was missing the point. She was trying to maintain a grip on normalcy—waiting for a time when she could set up her antique farm table and favorite dish set and gather her kids and grandkids for a home-cooked meal.

A couple of years ago she told me, “I think I know why people hoard. They’re tired of losing.” I sat down on a bench when she told me this because I finally understood. Loss was at the root of it. When you’re tired of losing, you hold on to whatever you can.

by Julie Poole, EHRP/Slate |  Read more:
Image: yalcinsonat1 via Getty Images
[ed. I've always thought driving ranges and storage units would be great businesses to own if you've got the upfront capital. Low operational and maintenence costs forever after they're installed.]